1. Disturbance mosaics (treefall gaps, hurricanes, fires)
Patchy, recurrent disturbance
Habitat states vary demographically
Habitat states change over time
Dynamics includes demographic and habitat transitions

2. Concepts Structured populations Mosaic of environmental states
Each environmental state
= one population projection matrix
Entire heterogeneous landscape
= set of matrices

3. Many different ways to link together...
arithmetic average
products of matrices (a fixed sequence)
Megamatrix
Stochastic sequence

4. Megamatrix Environment-by-stage classes
Matrix size = no. of environments x no. stages
Environmental transition matrix
Aggregates over all patches of a given environment at each time step

5. Environment transition matrix

6. Environmental characteristics from a matrix?
Sequence of types of environments
Temporal autocorrelation
Relative abundance of types of environments in the sequence over time reaches an equilibrium

7. What happens here next? Start green Start red Start blue
50% chance of going to Red
50% chance of going to Blue
Start red
50% chance of going to Green
50% chance of staying Red
Start blue
100% probability of going to Green

8. Try it…
Start red.

9. What happens here long term?

10. Environment transition phenology
census
census t
time
t+1
late change
early change

11. Megamatrix: early change

12. Megamatrix: late change

13. New sensitivity questions
Environment by life history stage classification
Does the same life-history event in different environments differ in elasticity values?
Elasticities (can be summed)
By environment
By stage across all environments
By stage within environments …

14. What’s next? Cumulative pop growth Stochastic sequences
Stochastic elasticities
Age from stage