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1` Predicting Who Will be Most Susceptible to Peer Influence Regarding Substance Use: Individual, Familial, and Peer Risk Factors Joseph P. Allen Joanna.

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Presentation on theme: "1` Predicting Who Will be Most Susceptible to Peer Influence Regarding Substance Use: Individual, Familial, and Peer Risk Factors Joseph P. Allen Joanna."— Presentation transcript:

1 1` Predicting Who Will be Most Susceptible to Peer Influence Regarding Substance Use: Individual, Familial, and Peer Risk Factors Joseph P. Allen Joanna Chango Megan Schad David E. Szwedo University of Virginia Collaborators: Maryfrances Porter, Ph.D. Penny Marsh Kathleen McElhaney, Ph.D. F. Christy McFarland, Ph.D. Jessica Meyer, Ph.D. Farah Williams, Ph.D. Katie Little Jill Antonishak, Ph.D. Katy Higgins Claire Stephenson Mindy Schmidt, Ph.D. Glenda Insabella, Ph.D. Erin Miga Amanda Hare Copies of this and related papers are available at:

2 Characteristics of Peer Influence in Adolescence
2` Characteristics of Peer Influence in Adolescence Inevitable Not Restricted to Low Functioning Teens Can be Positive or Negative Questionable Magnitude: Selection vs. Influence

3 Key Premise Key Question
3` Key Premise Peer Influence Processes May Only Show Up Powerfully Under Certain conditions. Key Question When Will a Teen be MOST likely to be influenced by Peers?

4 Theoretical Framework
4` Theoretical Framework Managing Peer Influence as an Autonomy Process As teens gain autonomy from parents, at first they sacrifice some autonomy with peers Autonomy development will be key to understanding peer influence Autonomy development must be viewed in context

5 Hypotheses Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context
5` Hypotheses Susceptibility to Peer Influence Will be Linked to: Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context Autonomy/Relatedness Struggles Refusal Skills with Peers Peer Social Status Susceptibility to Peer Influence

6 Sample 184 Adolescents, their Parents, Best Friends, and Other Friends
6` Sample 184 Adolescents, their Parents, Best Friends, and Other Friends Intensive Interviews and Observations with all parties (Total N over first 10 years ~ 1600). Equal numbers of Males and Females We’ll focus on period of peak influence: ages 15 to 16 Socio-economically Diverse (Median Family Income= $40- $60K) 31% African American; 69% European American Very Low Attrition (< 1%)

7 Defining Influence Becoming More Like One’s Peers
7` Defining Influence Becoming More Like One’s Peers Focus on Actual Behavior We focused on Substance Use Problematic Quintessential example of peer influence concerns

8 Measures: Substance Use
8` Measures: Substance Use Alcohol and Drug Use Questionnaire (Johnston, O’Malley, & Bachman, 1987, “Monitoring the Future” surveys) Combined Frequency of Alcohol & Marijuana Use in Past 30 days Self-report measure obtained from both target teen and the target teen’s closest friend.

9 Assessing Peer Influence
9` Assessing Peer Influence Examine Change in Substance Use from Age 15 to 16 for Target Teen Can this Change be Predicted from Close Friend’s Baseline Substance Use at Age 15? In other words: Does a teen’s level of use change to become more like what their friend’s use was at 15? In context of general pattern of increasing substance use in the sample as a whole during this period.

10 Hypothetically Modeling Peer Influence
10` Hypothetically Modeling Peer Influence Flat Line = No Prediction from Baseline Peer Use to Change in Target Teen Use

11 Hypothetically Modeling Peer Influence
11` Hypothetically Modeling Peer Influence Positive Slope = Baseline Peer Use Predicts Future Change in Target Teen Use (i.e., Peer Influence)

12 Actual Peer Influence Baseline Peer Use Predicts Future
12` Actual Peer Influence Baseline Peer Use Predicts Future Change in Target Teen Use (i.e., Peer Influence is Present)

13 Predicting Target Teen Substance Use
13` Predicting Target Teen Substance Use Age 15 Age 16 Teen Substance Use Teen Substance Use .70*** .46*** .28*** Peer Substance Use Gender & Income

14 14` Key Question Will some youths be more susceptible to this peer influence process? Which youths?

15 Hypotheses Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context
15` Hypotheses Susceptibility to Peer Influence Will be Linked to: Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context Autonomy/Relatedness Struggles Refusal Skills with Peers Peer Social Status Susceptibility to Peer Influence

16 16` Autonomy Measures: Recantations with Mother (Undermined Autonomy at Age 13) Autonomy & Relatedness Coding System (Allen et al., 2000) Observed 8-minute parent-teen interaction Focus is resolving an actual ongoing disagreement Adolescent Recantations – A teen backs down without having been given any reasons to do so, and without appearing convinced. A marker of fundamental autonomy difficulties

17 Predicting Target Teen Substance Use
17` Predicting Target Teen Substance Use Age 15 Age 16 Teen Substance Use Teen Substance Use .70*** Recantations -.00 Recantations X Peer Use .-19** .46*** .28*** Peer Substance Use Gender & Income

18 Recantations with Mother as a Moderator of Peer Influence
18` Recantations with Mother as a Moderator of Peer Influence High Teen Recantations Low Teen Recantations

19 Measures: Maternal Support (Teen Age 13)
19` Measures: Maternal Support (Teen Age 13) Supportive Behavior Task Coding System– (Allen, et al., 2001; Crowell, et al., 1998; Julie et al., 1997) Observed 6-minute parent-teen interaction Teen asks for help with a problem Maternal Support Score: Maternal demonstration of warmth, positivity, and valuing of the teen during the interaction

20 Maternal Support as a Moderator of Peer Influence
20` Maternal Support as a Moderator of Peer Influence Low Maternal Support High Maternal Support

21 Hypotheses Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context
21` Hypotheses Susceptibility to Peer Influence Will be Linked to: Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context Autonomy/Relatedness Struggles Refusal Skills with Peers Peer Social Status Susceptibility to Peer Influence

22 Measures: Refusal Skills
22` Measures: Refusal Skills Adolescent Problem Inventory (Freedman & McFall, 1978) Analogue measure Coded competence of teen responses to hypothetical problems Administered in two ways 5 items administered with no prompts followed by: 5 items administered AFTER telling teen of a deviant hypothetical peer response. Peer Refusal Skills Score: How much does the teen’s competence-score deteriorate from the first to the second 5 items

23 Measures: Refusal Skills Sample Item
23` Measures: Refusal Skills Sample Item UNPROMPTED ITEM: Your with a friend in a department store who suggests stealing a sweater. What would you do? PROMPTED ITEM: Describes a similar situation but teen is told: Another teen said that in this situation, they would take the sweater and run, Peer refusal skills score: The DIFFERENCE between responses on the two different types of items.

24 Refusal Skills as a Moderator of Peer Influence
24` Refusal Skills as a Moderator of Peer Influence Low Refusal Skills High Refusal Skills

25 Hypotheses Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context
25` Hypotheses Susceptibility to Peer Influence Will be Linked to: Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context Autonomy/Relatedness Struggles Refusal Skills with Peers Peer Social Status Susceptibility to Peer Influence

26 Measures: Best Friend’s Popularity
26` Measures: Best Friend’s Popularity Sociometric Assessment – List 10 kids with whom you would most like to spend time on a Saturday night. A preference-based, not status-based measure. i.e., who other teens would like to spend time with rather than who they view as high in popularity/status. Best Friend Popularity: Number of times best friend named by other peers as someone with whom they would like to spend time.

27 Peer Popularity as a Moderator of Peer Influence
27` Peer Popularity as a Moderator of Peer Influence More Popular Peer Less Popular Peer

28 Creating a Composite Measure of Susceptibility to Peer Influence
28` Creating a Composite Measure of Susceptibility to Peer Influence Summing Standardized Scores Family Context Individual Skills Peer Context Recantations Maternal Support (-) Refusal Skills with Peers (-) Peer Social Status Susceptibility to Peer Influence

29 Composite Marker of Susceptibility to Peer Influence
29` Composite Marker of Susceptibility to Peer Influence High Susceptibility Low Susceptibility

30 Predicting Target Teen Substance Use
30` Predicting Target Teen Substance Use Age 15 Age 16 Teen Substance Use Teen Substance Use .70*** Composite Susceptibility -.05 .46*** .28*** Peer Substance Use Gender & Income Interaction accounts for 11% of Variance in Teen Substance Use (and 22% of Change Variance) Main effect + Interaction accounts for 16% of variance (32% of change variance) .33*** Susceptibility X Peer Use

31 Limitations Error/random variation “noise” in assessing substance use
31` Limitations Error/random variation “noise” in assessing substance use Only looking at one peer’s influence One-year time frame Susceptibility may not be all bad Influence ≠ Negative Influence Findings apply to one period in adolescence (age15-16) Copies of this and related papers are available at:

32 32` Conclusions We CAN identify predictors of susceptibility to peer influence Need to consider susceptibility contextually Not just individual factors (e.g., refusal skills) But family factors (lack of autonomy, maternal support) And Peer factors (friend popularity within the peer group) Susceptibility to Peer Influence Can Explain Significant Additional Variance in Teen Substance Use Copies of this and related papers are available at:

33 33`

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