1. Diffusion of Innovation
Five Stages of Adoption
Awareness – aware, but uninformed
Interest – stimulated to seek information
Evaluation – considers whether to try
Trial – consumer tries innovation
Adoption – makes full and regular use of innovation
Innovation’s “Bermuda Triangle”
Innovators 2.5%
- venturesome
- risk takers
Early Adopters 13.5%
- opinion leaders
- guided by respect
Early Majority 34%
deliberate
rarely leaders
Late Majority 34%
skeptical
move only after
majority has tried it
Laggards 16%
tradition bound
suspicious of change
adopt only when it takes
on characteristics of a tradition
Characteristics of Innovation Affect its Rate of Adoption
Advantage – degree of superiority over existing alternatives
Compatibility – degree to which it matches lifestyle, experiences, environment
Complexity – degree of difficulty to understand and use it
Observability – results/benefits observable & describable to others
Riskiness – negative economic, social or physical consequences to adoption
Divisibility – can it be adopted gradually or tried on a limited basis
From Everett Rogers,
The Diffusion of Innovation,
Free Press 1983

2. Time to Market Depends on Many Factors
Color TV
PCS
Cable TV PC
VCR
Cellular
Sales
Volume
Black &
White TV
DVD
1 Million Units
As you look at the ramp-up rates for consumer eProducts, the time it takes to reach production levels of 1 million units has shrunk from 25 years for the black and white TV, to less than a year for the digital video disk player.
And these technology-driven eProducts have shorter and shorter shelf lives
So eProduct companies are forced to hit these shrinking windows or miss the opportunity altogether 5 10 15 20
Years to 1 Million Units Sold
Source: D. Merriman, “Wireless Communications Report,” BIS, Boston, Dataquest