1. REDD+ FOR THE GUIANA SHIELD Technical Cooperation Project
Session 5 – Conclusion session
Marie Calmel, ONF International
December 11th, 2013
2nd Steering Committee Meeting, Macapá

2. Presentation outline MoU with the GSF
Validation of meeting outcomes (principle, budget & calendar, who)
Next Steering Committee Meeting

3. MoU with GSF MoU between ONF (has the project holder) and GSF
Comments has been made and discussed between ONF, ONFI and GSF
Documents under legal review

4. Tools to support decision making
Several previous experiences
Guyasim software (CIRAD)
Models of future deforestation (e.g. CI/Imazon/ClarkLabs), Brazil
Underlying assumption – Model are informative
Results
Processes
Challenges:
Data / inputs
Appropriateness

5. General overview Regional GIS Database
Participative development of the tools
Model spatially explicit of future deforestation
Regional Scale
Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts
Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools
Long term objective
Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

6. PhD project 1 PhD 1 Regional GIS Database
Participative development of the tools
Model spatially explicit of future deforestation
Regional Scale
Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts
PhD 1
Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools
Long term objective
Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

7. PhD project 1
Funded PhD under “CIRAD Forêt” supervision (Bruno Hérault) and the “Laboratoire Montpelliérain d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée » (LAMETA – Jean –Michel Salles)
PhD student – Camille Dezecache
Objective:
To develop a spatially explicit model of future deforestation, taking into consideration several development scenario
Participation to the project:
Component 2 :
Development of maps of deforestation risks
Collection of data and preparation of a GIS database of drivers of deforestation (in partnership with ONF Guyane)
Component 3:
Critical review of the available models
Participation to Working Groups in order to share the model construction process
Part of the scientific platform on modeling future land use and land cover changes

8. Implementation and budget
Implementation through a consultancy contract with CIRAD Forêt (ONF/CIRAD)
Budget provided by the project in order to:
Ensure the good articulation within the project objectives and approach
Ensure participation to Working Groups, events, etc. in order to share experience and advancements
Missions in the countries
Preparation of deliverables scheduled in the framework of the project
Total budget: €
Draft agreement to be submitted to FFEM non objection

9. PhD project 2 PhD 2 Regional GIS Database
Participative development of the tools
Model spatially explicit of future deforestation
Regional Scale
Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts
PhD 2
Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools
Long term objective
Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

10. PhD project 2 Objective:
Assess the impacts of REDD+, land-use planning and sectoral measures and policies on forest cover changes and socio-economical development
How:
Development of a partial equilibrium model that would focus on most relevant sectors:
Forestry
Agriculture
Mining
Others?
Participative construction of the model
Policies and measures to be tested
Cause-effect chain
Construction of scenarios
Development of a regional dialogue platform
To follow the model development
To dialogue on the results and tools

11. Implementation and budget
Project still to be launched
Total budget: 70k€ from CIFRE co-fundings + functioning costs
PhD project under scientific review
Call for application in the different countries
Likely start: mid 2014

12. General overview Scientific collaboration platform
Regional GIS Database
General consideration of political approprietness of those tools in the REDD+ and Land-Use planning framework
Decision-making tools
Participative development of the tools
Scientific collaboration platform
Model spatially explicit of future deforestation
Regional Scale
Econometric model (equilibrium) to assess socio-economical impacts
Creation of a dialogue platform around those tools
Long term objective
Create a dynamic and user friendly software at the regional scale

13. Input Data – A real challenge
Using data that are available in the countries:
Bring national data to the regional floor when they are produced using different methodologies and shows different characteristics (different resolution and level of details, different type of data, different underlying assumptions, etc.)
Rely on data that are still under development (need for country to gain confidence on those data before sharing it)
Some confidentiality and sovereignty consideration
Collection of data
To avoid duplication
Necessity to produce new regional data
Control of the agenda
Avoid intrusion in the national framework and therefore to facilitate dialogue
Probably lesser resolution to enable a global homogeneous tool
Possibilities to combine lower and higher level data when available

14. Production of data Land-Use and Land-Cover Historical Analysis
4 time points
Resolution and cloud coverage (meeting to be organized between different stakeholders)
Modalities for implementation:
On free imageries
Validation with high resolution data
Subcontract (under development)
Including a review of existing data
Budget: 30k€ (initial budget scheduled for the Forest cover Monitoring Study)
GIS Database on drivers of deforestation
Variables to be tested in the different models
CIRAD PhD student preparing a review of existing data
ONF-Guyane administrating the Database (online options?)
Creation of additional data if required
Budget: under estimation

15. Discussion

16. MERCI / THANK YOU / DANK U / OBRIGADA
Photo credit: ONF Guyane