1. Project: 00075206 “Third National Report to UNFCCC”
Analyses of Possible GHG Emissions Limitations for the Republic of Macedonia in Case of Becoming UNFCCC Annex I Member or EU Member
Neven Duić

2. Climate change
Since 1750 we pumped 1500 GtCO2 (Global: 30 GtCO2/a, 4.5 tCO2/cap/a, MK 5.8 tCO2/cap/a) …
… which resulted in increase of concentration to 400 ppm

3. Climate change Higher CO2 concentration, higher temperature …
… global warming (2ºC ~ 450 ppm)

4. Higher CO2 concentration, higher temperature …
… global warming (2ºC ~ 450 ppm)
Convergence > tCO2/cap/a
Climate change

5. UNFCCC process UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, Doha amendment and after:
5% reduction of GHG emissions by from 1990 base for annex I countries (EU15 - 8%)
Further reduction by under Doha amendment (EU %)
By 2015 a new agreement on post-2020, pledges expected from all countries

6. CO2 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase?
Climate change
CO2 emissions – 2°C, 4°C or 6°C increase?
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

7. Fully economically viable but not being done?
Climate change
Fully economically viable but not being done?
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives

8. Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies
Fossil fuel subsidies – 10 times bigger than RES subsidies

9. Estimate of Fossil Fuel-related Subsidies
Country
Energy related subsidies as % of GDP
Albania
7-8%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
9-10%
Croatia
5-6%
Macedonia
8-9%
Montenegro
10-11%
Serbia
7-9%
Kosovo
35-36%
Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP: Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans

10. UNFCCC process Macedonia options:
It will have to give an offer by 2015 for the period after The offer can be:
BAU deviation (deviation from business as usual – appropriate for countries with fast growth of emissions)
QELRC (quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment – appropriate for countries with stagnant emissions)
Macedonia is a member of Energy community
That includes obligation of implementation of Acquis in energy and environment chapters
Implies acceding to Annex I of UNFCCC (QELRC)
Macedonia is a EU candidate country
Could become member by 2020 at the earliest

11. GHG emissions - MK
Macedonia - Total emissions and removals in CO2-eq for the period [Gg]

12. Proposed scenarios Group 1 scenarios 2020 2030 2040 2050 EU_Low -20%
-30%
-40%
EU_Medium
-45%
-60%
EU_High
-80%
EU end year emission reduction - overall ETS + non-ETS
Group 2 scenarios
Kyoto_Low
+20%
+10% 0%
-10%
Kyoto_MediumLow
-20%
Kyoto_Medium
-30%
Kyoto_MediumHigh
-40%
Kyoto_High
-50%
QELRC emission reduction (average period)

13. Proposed scenarios Group 3 scenarios 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 -10%
BAUdev_Low
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
BAUdev_Medium
-35%
BAUdev_High
-40%
-50%
-60%
BAU deviation end year emission reduction
BAU deviation end year emission reduction

14. EU Acquis
Reduction by 20% overall by 2020 (no LULUCF), 30% in case of Doha amendment
Between 1990 and 2005 GHG emission reduction achieved is 7.9%
EU ETS
Large installations from EU28+CH+IS+LI+NO, power sector and industry, cca 50% emissions
Power buys emissions, industry gets some and buys the rest, ETS level, no national goals
Reductions where is cheapest
Goal to reduce 21% between 2005 and 2020
Non-ETS – effort sharing between EU countries

15. EU Acquis
End year GHG targets and budget period QELRC in case of no deal (voluntary, no Doha amendment)

16. EU Acquis targets vs. QELRC
End year GHG targets and budget period QELRC in case of no deal (voluntary, no Doha amendment)
Trajectory of EU emission targets.

17. EU Acquis - effort sharing
Non-ETS – effort sharing between EU countries
Macedonia probably as Bulgaria

18. How to reduce emissions?
Demand side:
Buildings: more efficient buildings
More efficient appliances, lightning
More efficient industry
More efficient transport, modal shift
Supply side:
Power sector: increase efficiency, switch to gas, renewables, imports
Buildings: more renewables
Renewables and waste in industry
Biofuels and electricity in transport

19. Decoupling is possible – EU case

20. Decoupling is possible – Danish case

21. Decoupling is possible – Danish case

22. Transport – unlocked learning curve

24. Coal
US Coal mining employment

25. Coal
Energy production in European Union

26. Coal
Manpower in the European coal industry 2008 and 2010

27. How to reduce emissions?
EU – renewables 20% by 2020 in gross energy demand
Macedonia 28% as a member of Energy community
EU Green Paper "A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies“ – 40% lower GHG and 30% RES by 2030?
EU Roadmap % lower GHG emissions by 2050, RES 40%-100%?

28. New installed and decommissioned power capacity in EU, 2012 [MW], EWEA
RES Directive
New installed and decommissioned power capacity in EU, 2012 [MW], EWEA

29. RES Directive
EU electricity generation installed capacity net change, [MW], EWEA

30. RES Directive

31. Renewables - jobs
Average employment over life of facility (jobs per MW of average capacity)

32. Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?

33. Conclusions Macedonia will have to offer emission reduction by 2015
Macedonia will probably have to join Annex I
Although no emission reduction needed by 2020, reductions by 2030 will influence today decisions
The influence of Energy Community should be taken into account more seriously
3 groups of scenarios proposed

34. Thank you for your attention! Благодарам за вниманието!