1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Improved Fossil/Industrial CO2 Modelling for the North American Carbon Program (NACP) : the “Vulcan” project
Kevin Gurney Daniel Mendoza, Broc Seib, Chris Miller
Purdue University Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Purdue Climate Change Research Center Rosen Center for Advanced Computing
Steve Knox, Scott Denning, Kathy Corbin, Dennis Ojima
Colorado State University
Marc Fischer, Scott Murtishaw
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Supported by NASA grant NNG05GG12G
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2. Vulcan Project Context: Goal: Solution:
Quantification of NA C budget requires high-res, dynamic, process-based estimates of fossil/industrial CO2 emissions
Goal:
Emissions at 10s km/hourly with economic sub-sector detail that moves beyond climatological
Solution:
Leverage off the long-history of Air Quality monitoring in North America
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3. Using EPA emissions models & data
A comprehensive database/model that combines:
inventory data - stack monitoring, emissions reports, etc
process attributes - control devices, fuel consumed, etc
classification - individual facilities, source category codes
to construct detailed space and time dependent emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, O3, NOx, SOx, particulates, Pb)
Three classes of inputs:
Point sources – powerplants, for example
Mobile sources – vehicle emissions
Area sources – residential sources, for example
Resolution: 10 km, hourly
Modules
Area source
Point source
Vehicle
Biogenic
nonroad
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4. Manipulate underlying to generate CO2
Accept data, time/place structure “as is”
CO2 direct
Fuel throughput
NOx emissions
Emission controls
NOx EF
CO2 EF
Place/time
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5. Methods continued Result:
Mobile: NMIM and diurnal data, render onto roads in GIS environment
Point: Crosslink to CEM (power generators), remainder reliant on NOx (139,000 records)
Toughest,
least reliable
Nonpoint: Almost all reliant on NOx
Result:
CO2 emissions at 1-10 km from all sectors in US with process-level detail every hour (1999, 2002)
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6. Results from “AREA” module
natlog of tonnes C/day: January 3, 2002
Country-level consumption
Distrib. By 
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7. Results from “POINT” module
Tonnes C/day/facility
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8. Results from “on-road” module
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9. Dynamic emissions Rush hours: 8 am, 6 pm peaks
Dominant in exurban/rural
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10. All sources
Ln tonnes C/day/gridcell
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11. Independent check
category
This study1
EIA
EPA
transport2
0.47
0.51
0.48
industrial3
0.20
0.28
0.24
electricity
0.59
0.61
residential
0.11
0.10
commercial
0.065
0.062
0.063
Total
1.43
1.56
1.49
We are currently making comparisons at finer levels of disaggregation
1We don’t have alaska, hawaii,
2industrial incomplete and in “point”
3transport is extrap from ‘99 (nonroad extrap from summer months),
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12. Next steps Immediate: Out there: Deeper QA is necessary
Continue comparisons to independent estimation
Run chemistry (oxidize CO and VOCs), evaluate CO to MOPPITT
Prepare for mid-continent intensive
Public distribution
Out there:
Rerun atmospheric CO2 inversions
Add Mexico and Canada
Data on traffic patterns, hierarchical road networks, household metering
The globe! - hard and may require a collection of approaches
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13. Conclusions
High res, process-driven fossil CO2 is essential: for science (budgets, inversions) and management (options)
Our approach for North America (US now) looks promising and early eval. shows no gross problems
Capturing dynamics (rush hours, diurnal cycles)
We are able to exceed proposed spatial scales
Public release soon (Winter/Spring ‘07)
The Vulcan approach can likely do industrial world, developing world may require a different approach
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14. Thank you
Thank You!
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