1. Sustainable Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Regional Policy Solutions
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Hertie School of Governance
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

2. 1. Challenge: Fossil Fuel Scarcity
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

3. Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert
Facts on Energy
Global oil supply can be enlarged up to 100 Mio. barrel/day only with substantial investments in oil exploration
If oil demand will increase substantially, peak oil might be reached in 2020
Global energy demand will double by 2030
Especially energy demand of fast growing countries like China and India will explode
Russia/Iran: high gas reserves - what about the future?
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

4. Global Energy Demand 2005-2030 - IEA 2008
Mtoe
Quelle: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

5. Necessary Investments 2007- 2030
Quelle: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

6. Oil Market – Scarcity and Difficulties
Global Oil Demand ?
Huge Investment necessary
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

7. 2. Challenge: Climate Change
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

8. Projection of World Energy Related CO2 Emissions
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

9. Stern report: Are we moving in the right direction?
Costs of international climate policy with international emissions trading: 1 % of global GDP
Costs of non-action: up to 20 % of global GDP
Benefits: up to 20 % of global GDP
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

10. Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert
Carbon Leakage
Can be a problem, especially with high emission reduction goals only in one region
Environmental capital flight-reallocation of firms from abating countries to non abating countries
Solution: global climate agreement; global emissions trading system
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

11. Climate policy agreement necessary
G20: “2 °C” target : binding emission reduction target
EU: target by 2020
USA: energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, drastic emission cut (?)
Australia (?), Canada (?), Russia (?)
UN Conferences: developing countries; adaptation fund
Fast Growing Countries will follow soon (China, India)
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

12. Solution: Climate Protection
Climate protection is economically efficient
Energy saving important (buildings, mobility)
Future markets are green markets
CO2 free, save and affordable energy is key
Coal: carbon capture and storage (CCS)
Renewable energy
Sustainable mobility
Climate change causes high costs
Climate protection offers huge economic potentials
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

13. Green Investments of Economic Programms (% Fund, % GDP)
Source: Edenhofer, Stern (2009)
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

14. Economic Potentials are huge
CO2 free, safe and affordable energy technologies urgently needed
Investments in climate protection will strengthen new markets - even in financial crisis
Companies which can offer these technologies will have a competitive advantage
New emerging markets need to apply (adopt) for climate friendly technologies
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

15. Emerging Climate Markets – Profit Growth Potentials5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Low Carbon Energy
Production
Energy Efficiency
Resource and Material
Efficiency
Recycling Economy
Sustainable Water
Industry
Sustainable Mobility
in %
2030
Source: Roland Berger, DIW
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

16. Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert
The Challenge
Time of cheap energy is over - timing is everything
Danger: wait and see - high oil price will harm the economy; climate policy will make fossil fuel more expensive
We urgently need CO2 free, save and affordable energy! 25 years for new technology to be adopted
Technological breakthrough necessary
Competitive advantage: to anticipate fuel scarcity and climate policy (bad example: car industry)
Renewable energy is the key
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

17. Potentials for Regions & Cities Green Growth
Energy saving improvement buildings (public, private: financial incentives)
Renewable Energy, CHP (de-centralized energy production)
Pilot programs renewable energy, CHP
Sustainable mobility: public transportation, electro mobility, alternative fuels
Infrastructure important! Mobility , energy
Information and cooperation between local authorities, companies and politicians
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

18. Without Local Authorities the change will not be successful
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

19. We need to solve three crisis
Financial Crisis: „Green“ Investments with growth potential instead of short term bonus to salvage 9 year old cars
Energy Crisis: Energy Saving, Improvement of Energy Efficiency, Alternatives of Oil and Fossil Fuels
Climate Crisis: Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases; Adaptation, international Climate Agreements
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert

20. INNOVATION INSTEAD OF DEPRESSION!
Thank you very much for your attention!
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert