1. Assessing the Impacts of Commuter Shuttles in San Francisco
Joe Castiglione, SFCTA
SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
TRB Planning Applications Conference
May 16, 2017 Raleigh, NC

2. Acknowledgements Yiyan Ge, SFCTA Camille Guiriba, SFCTA
Rachel Hiatt, SFCTA
Francesca Napolitan, SFMTA
John Knox-White, SFMTA

3. Controversy in SF Traffic congestion Neighborhood safety Environment
Public transportation
Displacement
Gentrification
Listening-to-the-many-sides-in-the-great-tech php

4. Commuter Shuttle Program
Pre-2014: no shuttle regulation, >250 stops
Jan 2014: Shuttle Pilot program launch
manage curb space
Limit streets
April 2016: Revised pilot program
Further street restrictions
Labor issues
April 2016: Assess an alternative reduced- stop, hub-based approach

5. Challenges Limited Data Supply Uncertainty Who are shuttle riders?
Where are they going?
Who isn’t riding shuttles?
Supply Uncertainty
Would providers continue to participate?
How would service be restructured?

6. Evaluation & Alternatives
Mode shift & VMT
Safety
Non-arterial volumes
Transit conflicts
Enforcement
Parking
Alternatives
Consolidated (17 hubs)
Freeway-oriented (9 hubs)
BART-oriented (5 hubs)
Single hub (1 hub)

7. Mode Choice Adapted from SF-CHAMP work tour mode choice model
Simplified alternatives
Simplifies specification
Use time-specific skims
Limitations
No info on actual size of the tech shuttle market
No individual attributes
No HH attributes
No home locations
Limited work locations
Impedances
InVehicleTime
WaitTime
DestWalkTime
OrigWalkTime
XferWalkTime
OPCIncome60k
TransitXfers
Fares / costs

8. Network Impedances
Use Google Maps Directions API to calculate impedances
Mode specific
Departure time specific (minute-level)
Route specific

9. Findings Significant shift to driving in 1-hub scenario
Current Program
Single-hub
BART-Oriented
Freeway-Adjacent
Consolidated Network
Mode Share
Shuttle Trips
100%
55%
73%
72%
76%
Drive Trips 0%
41%
24%
25%
22%
Transit Trips 4% 3% 2%
Number of Trips
8,200
4,500
6,020
5,930
6,230
3,330
1,960
2,050
1,780
370
220
190
Significant shift to driving in 1-hub scenario
Modest shift to driving in other scenarios
Virtually no shift to transit
Increases in VMT under all scenarios
Current Program
Single-hub
BART-Oriented
Freeway-Adjacent
Consolidated Network
VMT
7,970,772
66,062,924
41,628,833
42,744,989
42,213,430
GHG (Tons of CO2)
15,412
38,671
27,515
28,034

10. contact: joe.castiglione@sfcta.org