2. From the Lab to Ubiquity Speech Technologys Road to Mainstream Eric Chang, Ph.D. Assistant Managing Director MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center

3. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Impact of Disruptive Technology 9/3/2004, 6:03 AM, Pacific Green Bay

4. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Human Language Capability

5. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Successful technology adoptions increase exponentially But it s not a smooth process, there is a chasm * *Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm

6. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries LateMajorityEarlyAdopterLaggardsEarlyMajority

7. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

8. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Visionaries Technology for technologys sake Technology fans Wont be a major market

9. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Early Adopter Adopts technology for its benefits Not afraid to try something new

10. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Early Majority Will not be the first to adopt a new technology Practical and utilitarian Heavily influenced by what other people are doing Strong viral effect

11. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Late Majority Will adopt a technology only when necessary By this stage, a few dominant technology providers have emerged.

12. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Laggards Suspicious of new technology Can get alone fine without new technology

13. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Discontinuous Technology Not a simple extension of repackaging of existing technology Automobile replacing horse and carts Telephones replacing telegraphs

14. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries LateMajorityEarlyAdopterLaggardsEarlyMajority Chasm

15. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Into the Tornado Visionaries LateMajority EarlyAdopterLaggards EarlyMajority Tornado

16. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries: Speech Search & Transcription Early Adopters: Dictation Early Majority: Call Center Automation Late Majority: Leapfrog Laggards

17. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries: Speech Search & Transcription Early Adopters: Dictation Early Majority: Call Center Automation Late Majority: Leapfrog Laggards

18. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Example: Visual Audio Notebook

19. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Example: Visual Audio Notebook

20. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Example: Automatic Processing of Voicemail

21. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries: Speech Search & Transcription Early Adopters: Dictation Early Majority: Call Center Automation Late Majority: Leapfrog Laggards

22. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Early Adopter: Dictation Continuous dictation first sold in 1996 Shelfware English, Chinese, and Japanese dictation in Office XP in 2001 Current status Vital for people who need it No viral effect yet Difficulties in handling speaker accent, wearing microphone, individual vocabulary

23. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Language is a live medium Dalian: Dalian: Japan: WaiShaTsu England: White Shirt US: Suit Japan: SeBiRoo England: Saville Row

24. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries: Speech Search & Transcription Early Adopters: Dictation Early Majority: Call Center Automation Late Majority: Leapfrog Laggards

25. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Year Nuance Sales 1996 $ 1.5M 1997 $ 4.4M 2001 $ 23.0M 2002 $ 32.6M 2003 $ 42.1M

26. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center The Business Value of Speech for Call Centers Customer Focus Less Time/Call Efficient Agents Less Time in Queue Increased System Usage Customer Retention $5/call to $.20/call Reduced Call Time Fewer Agents New Revenue Opportunities Up-Sell/Cross-Sell

27. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Amtrak 61% Increase in Satisfaction 75% Increase in Automation Rate 90% Increase in Ticket Sales Thrifty Car Rental 40% increase in CSR productivity $1 million first year savings Merrill Lynch Automation rates from 82% to 90% First Year Savings $6.3M Call Center Examples

28. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center The Business Value of Speech for Operators Revenue In US$M The mobile operators need to make money from value-added services!

29. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Speech Makes Value-Added Services Usable Calendaring / Email E-Commerce / Alerts Search/Browsing Voice Dialing Location Based Places: Auto Services Speech SMS / MMS

30. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Microsoft Speech Server & SDK Extends ASP.NET and Visual Studio Call center + multimodal solution Call center + multimodal solution Unifies web & call center Reduces TCO Introduced in March 2004 Strong partner ecosystem Strategic partnerships with Intel, Intervoice, Scansoft 200+ Beta Program Applications 300+ Partner Applications 30,000 Speech SDK Users ASP.NET Speech Speech SDK

31. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center MS Speech Vision Video

32. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Speech Recognition: Approaching Human Error Rate Microsoft licensed CMU Sphinx-II Whisper in MSR Speech in Office XP Speech in Tablet/Office 11 Speech in LonghornHuman Error Rate

33. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Text to Speech Approaching Human Naturalness NaturalnessHumanNaturalness

34. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle Visionaries: Meeting Transcription Early Adopters: Dictation Early Majority: Call Center Automation Late Majority: Leapfrog Laggards

35. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center What is Leapfrog? $50 $120 $15

36. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Leapfrogs Technology Crucial technology Speech compression technology Using simple touch sensitive screen with new books and speech coding chip. Sound business model >80% highly recommendation rate in Amazon Invented by a lawyer trying to teach his 3 year old child to read!

37. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Technology Adoption Lifecycle: Late Majority, Case of Leapfrog

38. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Summary Disruptive technology adoption follows the technology adoption lifecycle Natural language understanding is hard Domain-free reasoning & common sense hardest Truly human-level understanding likely elusive Adoption of speech technology will increase 2-3 years: telephony, multimodal, accessibility. 7-10 years: intelligent assistance, meeting search/transcription, speech everywhere.

39. Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center Acknowledgement Faculty Forum Speech, 2003, Kai-Fu Lee Crossing the Chasm, Geoff Moore Into the Tornado, Geoff Moore echang@microsoft.comhttp://Research.microsoft.com/users/echang