1. Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change
Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation

2. Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change Jon Erickson, Caroline Hermans University of Vermont Karin Limburg, Karen Stainbrook, Bongghi Hong SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry John Gowdy, Audra Nowosielski, John Polimeni Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Katherine Daniels New York Planning Federation David Burns Dutchess County Environmental Management Council Eileen Sassman Wappinger Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council

3. (marginal, and potentially episodic)
FEEDBACK LOOPS
(marginal, and potentially episodic)
The Tyranny of Small Decisions
Incremental
Economic Change
Incremental Land-Use Change
Incremental
Watershed Health
Decline
Chlorides
School Quality
Traffic Congestion
Energy Dependence
Social Networks
Community Services
OUTSIDE WORLD

4. PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY
FEEDBACK LOOPS
Out from Under the Tyranny
Economic Structure
and Change
Land-Use and
Demographic Change
Biophysical
Watershed Health
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy $
Business
Households
OUTSIDE WORLD
PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY

5. from Models to Mayhem Indicators Strategies Economic Land Use
Watershed Health
Land-Use and
Demographic Change
Biophysical
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy
Business
HouseH
Economic
Structure and Change
Individuals
from
Models to
Mayhem
Strategies
Indicators
Economic
Land Use
Ecological
Manage the Economy
Manage the Landscape
Manage the Environment

6. ECONOMIC CHANGE County-Wide Workshop: GOVERMENT
1. Semi-Conductor Industry
Suburbanization
Transformation of
Agriculture
4. Commuting
INDUSTRY
HOUSEHOLDS
Private Goods
& Services
Public
Services
Consumption
Goods
Labor
CAPITAL
OUTSIDE
WORLD
Exports
Imports
Depreciation
Investment

7. LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Past Change
Satellite maps
Ortho photos
Land use interpret.
Tax parcels
Building permits

8. Change Detection

9. Pleasant Valley

10. Stanford

11. East Fishkill

12. La Grange

13. Ortho Photo
Area of Detail: LaGrange Poughkeepsie border

14. “Ground” Truth with Ortho. Photos

15. Poughkeepsie

16. Wappinger

17. Pleasant Valley

18. Stanford

19. LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
VACANT PARCELS
LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Census by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . .
Future Change
Census Variables: Population
and Income growth
Tax Parcel Variables: Use Code,
Assessed Value, Acreage
Spatial Variables: Distance to
Central Business District
Biophysical Constraints
Slope, Soils, Wetlands
Social Constraints
Zoning
Ag. land management
Riparian management
Housing preferences

20. $ Household Income Housing Demand Economic Social Constraints Scenario
Residential
Development
Social Constraints
Economic
Scenario
Land Use
Interpretation

21. Impervious Surface Estimates
CURRENT
SCENARIO