1. Local Employment Dynamics
Here Comes the Bride! Marrying Administrative Records and Demographic Data: The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Case Study
Local Employment Dynamics
Colleen D. Flannery Acting Chief, Marketing Services Office
International Marketing and Statistical Output Database Conference
The Hague, Holland
September 6, 2005
This presentation describes, briefly, an innovative program, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), started in 1996 by the U.S. Census Bureau and a team of senior fellows. LEHD combines federal and state administrative data on employers and employees with existing Census Bureau core demographic data – a unique concept in the U.S. --, with no additional respondent burden, and with the same confidentiality protections afforded census and survey data.

2. Traditional Marketing Issues Challenge Innovative Program
Data Differences
What’s different?
What’s comparable?
What’s official?
What’s reliable?
Why isn’t it national?
Branding
Customers
Who are they?
How do we get more?
What do they need?
Dissemination Tools
How many?
For which audiences?
Stovepipes
How do we merge with other data/programs?
Local Employment Dynamics
The experiment to marry of administrative records with existing demographic information has been proven to be successful. It can be done. It can be done in a timely manner. It produces rich and complex results. It illustrates relationships between jobs and workers never before seen. The tools for users are manifold and robust.
But… we’ve yet to establish a niche, a presence, a brand. Many bosses means answering to the needs of those bosses and their constituents. Is the customer being overlooked in the rapid development and deployment of data and analytic tools? Are the right tools being provided? Is this just another data set that sits in a stovepipe, not seeking to be integrated with other key data sources?
How does a fledgling program move from “told you we could do it” to a trusted official data source? Are we ready to move from the introductory product life cycle to growth?
These are among the challenges I note here. I’m sure you can think of many others.

3. Statistical Integration: U.S. Model
Local Employment Dynamics
Workers
The U.S. federal statistical system differs from most other National Statistical Offices in that it is decentralized. Surveys are conducted in that proverbial stovepipe, each collecting the data that are essential for that agency. What others take for granted -- the combining of federally collected data from widely disparate areas -- is relatively limited in the United States.

4. Traditional Demographic and Economic Data: The U.S. Model
Businesses
Workers
Households
Local Employment Dynamics
Traditionally demographic and economic data are collected separately,each in its own stovepipe, capturing information about workers or businesses or about households. The interaction between the worker and the business has rarely been demonstrated.

5. Local Employment Dynamics
The Concept: Combine Administrative Records and Existing Demographic Data
Merging traditional stovepiped data or “snapshots” into integrated, big picture “movies” about the U.S. society and economy
Local Employment Dynamics
Those traditional building blocks of households and people have been joined with information on employers and businesses to illustrate the dynamic relationship between job and worker, between economy and workforce. Rather than a snapshot or a stovepipe of single focus information, the concept here is to merge these sources to get an interactive look at the dynamic relationships.

6. Following the Data: Household -> Person -> Employer -> Business
Demographic Surveys
Integration Record Person Employer
Economic Censuses & Surveys Census Entity
Household Record
Person Record
Household ID
The Census Bureau undertook to see if the concept was practicable. In a program called “Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics” (LEHD), the integration those traditional blocks (household and employer) is possible by means of a common administrative integration record that has information on both workers and firms.
You can see how the data are linked from household to person, person to employer and employer to business by matching the color coded pairs shown here.
In many countries, the universal administrative integration record would be supplied by tax records. The U.S. system, however, has a richer source available at the state level. Collected and reported in a standard format, the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage Record can be used as an integration record, and this is what is primarily used in the this groundbreaking program.
Business Register Employer Census Entity

7. A Young, Novel Program: Who Does What?
time
Census, BLS, NSF, Eurostat Sloan Foundation hold int’l conference to highlight linked employer-employee data; LEHD program begins
First State partners workshop held; BLS/Census clarify roles and duties; BLS identifies 4 states (PA, NC, MN, OH) to be added
First Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage Record Conference establishes National Wage Record Database
Local Employment Dynamics
1997
1999
2001
1994
1998
2000
The LEHD program is young, in fact, less than 10 years old.
The first step to achieving the marriage of administrative records with existing census data was the development of that common administrative integration record – the UI Wage Record. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began pushing states to adopt this method in Three years later, the Census Bureau accepted a proposal to use Maryland’s UI Wage Record database to merge with demographic data. BLS agreed to fund a part time staff member to work on the proposal.
The next year, the Census Bureau, in conjunction with BLS, the National Science Foundation, Eurostat and the Sloan Foundation, introduced the increasingly viable concept at a conference overseas. The LEHD program was formally established in the same year, 1998.
Having seen what could be done with the Maryland data, states began joining the partnership. In 1990 and 1991, they started shipping their quarterly UI Wage Records to the Census Bureau for processing, integrating, stripping out of personal identifiers, and repackaging for use by the states. At this time, LEHD began holding annual conferences for the state partners.
In 2001, the Education and Training Administration provided funding for one staff member and the Workforce Investment Council endorsed the LEHD program.
Lots of players and data are involved, from lots of agencies.
5 states (CA, FL, IL, TX, NY) begin providing state UI wage info
2nd State partners workshop held; 4 states (PA, NC, MN, NJ) added; more negotiations but no funding from BLS; ETA funds 1 worker; Workforce Investment Council endorses LEHD
ASA fellowship uses UI Wage Records for Maryland to develop prototype for integrating economic and demographic data; BLS funds part-time staff

8. Expansion: Who is the Official Source? Not National Yet?
time
5th state partners workshop; ETA provides $1.7m for LED; analytic tools “Top Industries” and “Local Workforce” and prototype mapping tool developed; unveils new LED website; 8 states join partnership
3rd state partners workshop; Labor Market Information Committee (from all 50 states) urges BLS to work with ETA and Census; first website and analytic tool, QWI Online, introduced with data from 5 states; 10 states join partnership
…revise/replace QWI Online? …additional states join mapping? …additional states join LED? …LED expands to transportation and LTD?
Local Employment Dynamics
2003
2005
2002
2004
2006 and beyond
It wasn’t until 2002 that the LEHD program began disseminating its first product, called Local Employment Dynamics, to the public. The key tools were a rudimentary website and a custom built application called QWI Online. QWI stands for Quarterly Workforce Indicators, the measures that are produced by the LED program. By this time about 20 states were in the partnership and more joined in each subsequent year.
When I joined the LED team in the early summer of 2004, we decided that the website needed a more polished look, more content and more powerful analytic tools. By July, we were beta testing two new tools, Top Industries and Local Workforce. In December we rolled out the new website. This year, we’ve grown by 5 more states (as of the end of July) to a total of 39 partner states. At the time of writing, we are about to introduce another version of the website and a new tool, Industry Focus, that combines the best of the two analytic tools developed and introduced the year before, which have now been quietly retired. A wonderful mapping tool that shows where people work and where workers live is available for 14 of the states.
At state partners meetings, users wonder about the relationship between the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about which provides the official data, about how accurate data can be if it is not national in scope, why the numbers don’t match their own employment estimates.
The future? The LEHD program is in the President’s budget submission for FY06. We will continue to produce data, encourage states to join the program, improve dissemination and analysis tools, and raise awareness of the program.
4th state partners workshop; awareness raising and grassroots marketing begins; LED newsletter launched; 8 states join partnership
6th state partners workshop; 5 states join partnership; release of new analytic tool, “Industry Focus”, and enhanced website; 14 states join mapping tool pilot

9. Local Employment Dynamics
State, county, sub-county, workforce investment areas
Employment
Demographics (age and sex)
Industry
Earnings
Dynamics
Time, quarterly (as far back as 1990)
Job gains, losses and flows
Hires, turnover and separations
Local Employment Dynamics
The primary product or dataset from the LEHD program is Local Employment Dynamics (LED). In a voluntary partnership between state Labor Market Information (LMI) agencies and the Federal government, states supply quarterly unemployment insurance wage records and ES-202 business establishment records and the Census Bureau merges the records with other data, ensuring confidentiality under law, to produce LED data.
Currently, the partnership, with 39 states, represents nearly 85% of the U.S. population and more than three-quarters of the U.S. states. By combining data from different administrative sources, censuses and surveys, the Census Bureau produces local employment information that was not available before. In addition, this innovative merger of existing data puts no additional response burden on the public and with very minimal additional taxpayer cost.
As with all Census Bureau data, CONFIDENTIALITY IS PROTECTED BY LAW. Every person with access to data is sworn by law to protect confidentiality. It is against the law to publish or disclose any data that identifies an individual or company: no names, no addresses, no Social Security numbers, no telephone numbers. A Federal law, Title 13 of the U.S. Code, provides strong confidentiality protections for all individual information collected by the Census Bureau. Violating this law is a Federal crime with serious penalties, including a prison sentence of up to five years and a $250,000 fine. Under Title 13, the Census Bureau collects data solely to produce statistics.
LED produces measures about employment and workers that are local – available for states, counties, metropolitan areas, and workforce investment areas (WIAs). The employment information is available by age and gender, by industry (offering Standard Industry Classification (SIC) or North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) at the 2-, 3- and even 4-digit level) and includes information on earnings. The data from LED are dynamic, showing job gains and losses, new hires and separations over time. (Using SIC, the data extends back to 1990; with NAICS, the data currently begin in 2001.)

10. 39 Partner States – Sixth Year
Local Employment Dynamics
At the time of writing, we have thirty nine states, including the District of Columbia, in the LED partnership with the Census Bureau.
The states shown here in solid brown are in production now. That means they’ve signed an agreement and should have started supplying quarterly data to the Census Bureau. It generally takes about six months to produce data for the first time and the data generally lag by about nine months, a concern some raise – the data simply aren’t current enough.
The majority of those partner states (28) have data available to use on the LED website, by means of the powerful online analytic tools, QWI Online and Industry Focus.
Those shown in cross-hatching have signed agreements with the Census Bureau so recently that they have yet to begin providing the necessary data. Several of the remaining states are in discussions, changing legislation as necessary in order to share this highly confidential information with their federal counterpart, and are seeking to join the LED partnership.
Effective 6/15/05

11. Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program
What’s in a Name?
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics ??
Local Employment Dynamics??
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program
(LEHD)
Surveys
Administrative
Records
Censuses
Local
Employment
Dynamics
Transportation
Immigration
Local Employment Dynamics
Local Employment Dynamics
The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics PROGRAM is the parent to the product, Local Employment Dynamics. Given how similar the names are, there is substantial confusion about how to source data or even identify the product. Added to this is the common source of data, provided by the states to the Census Bureau but easily available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Differentiation is key to the continued success of this product line. From the LEHD program, the next product the Census Bureau is discussing is Local Transportation Dynamics; meetings are already underway with key federal agencies and data sources. Others may follow.

12. How Many Audiences? How Many Needs?
Workforce Investment Boards
Where are the jobs?
How much do they pay?
Who needs training?
Job Seekers
Employers
Where are the workers?
What is the pay?
Local Employment Dynamics
Economic Development Agencies
What are the high growth industries?
Where should a business locate?
Transportation Planners
How can workers get to their jobs?
The data from this partnership is provided to the public in a powerful array of tools to help answer questions about local jobs, top industries, and the workforce, and to map the relationship between those workers and those jobs.
We know a few of current audiences and envision others. Workforce Investment Boards and Labor Market Information offices are our focus now. For Workforce Investment Boards and training professionals, LED data help answer questions about where the jobs are, what workers are paid, and who needs what kind of training.
Logic points us to employers and employees as prospective users of the data, the website and its tools. For employers, the data can be used to show where potential workers are located and how much they earn.
Economic development agencies might use the indicators to determine what the high growth industries in their area are or where more businesses might be located. And transportation planners will find this to be a great resource to decide how to improve the ways workers get to and from their jobs. Community colleges can use data to determine what kinds of training programs to set up for employers or prospective employees.

13. Local Employment Dynamics
A Tool for Every Need?
QWI Online
Local Workforce & Top Industries (retired)
Industry Focus
On the Map –in pilot
MDDB, Almis
DataFerrett for LED in development
Local Employment Dynamics
The state partners receive a complex data set that’s been cleaned and processed from the quarterly data they supply to the Census Bureau. In turn, a subset of data (8 quarterly workforce indicators from an array of nearly 40) are made available to the public on LED’s website through a variety of tools, as noted here.
Interactive screens allow users to examine 2-digit sectors and 3- and 4-digit industries; to rank measures of greatest importance and see multiple indicators in a single report.
Local geographies are available, including workforce investment areas and metro areas. In development is the ability to create custom geographies, for instance, grouping several counties together.
Dynamic mapping helps planners develop transportation systems or Workforce Investment Boards to locate job placement/consultation facilities where they are most needed.
How many tools does it take to get the data in the users’ hands? One for each audience? When is enough too many?
Labor Shed – where workers live