1. Shandong Leadership Group Michael Bar, Economics
The Global Economy
Shandong Leadership Group
Michael Bar, Economics

2. About me
Global Trends
China in the Global Economy
Questions, Data Sources

3. My Research Areas Macroeconomics Economics of Growth Labor Economics
Development process over the very long-run, Income Inequality.
Labor Economics
Labor Force Participation of women, Gender Wage Gap, Taxation of Families, Income Inequality.
Industrial Organization
Pricing strategies

4. My Teaching Areas Macroeconomics Econometrics Economics of Growth
Financial Economics
History of Economics Thought

5. Main Global Trends Income per capita ↑ Life expectancy ↑
Urbanization (% population in cities) ↑
Fertility (babies per woman) ↓
World Trade ↑
Data ↑

6. Global Economy: 200 years in 2 minutes

8. China 1950

9. China 2015

10. China 2050

11. India 1950

12. India 2015

13. India 2050

14. Aging Population: Challenges
Demand for healthcare ↑
Elderly Dependency Ratio ↑
𝐸𝐷𝑅= #𝑎𝑔𝑒 65 #𝑎𝑔𝑒 15−64
Country
EDR
Japan
42.7%
U.S.A.
22.1%
China
13.3%

15. Total Fertility Rate

16. Public Debt Japan

17. Urbanization ↑

18. Fertility ↓

19. World Trade

20. World Trade – Countries are Connected

21. China’s Export Partners

22. China’s Import Partners

23. China’s Export Products

24. China’s Import Products

25. China’s Top Trade Partners
Top 10 Export Partners
Top 10 Import Partners
Country
% Of Total Exports
1. United States
18%
1. South Korea
10.38%
2. Hong Kong, China
14.65
2. United States
8.95
3. Japan
5.96
3. Other Asian, NES
8.62
4. South Korea
4.45
4. Taiwan
8.59
5. Germany
3.03
5. Japan
8.51
6. Vietnam
2.91
6. Germany
5.21
7. U.K.
2.61
7. Australia
4.39
8. Netherlands
8. Malaysia
3.17
9. India
2.55
9. Brazil
2.64
10. Singapore
2.33
10. Switzerland
2.45

26. China’s Top Trade Partners
Ratio scale

27. Tariffs
5.6%
6.3%
2.7%
7.99%
1.9%

28. Tariffs are Costly
“Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires.“ (Barack Obama 2012, State of the Union Address, Quote about tariff increase on Chinese tires imports).
Estimated jobs saved by the tariff: 1,200.
Cost to consumers (who spend more on tires): 1.1 billion in 2011 alone.
Cost per job save in tire industry: $833,000 per job.
Without the tariff, the 1.1 billion could be spent on other goods and services, and create 11,000 jobs (at 100k).

29. What Should Chinese Government Do?
Sign free-trade agreements with other countries (e.g. India).
No need to interfere with trade itself.

34. Data Sources Gapminder - bubble and other visualization.
Population Pyramids.
World Integrated Trade Solution visualization tools.
Federal Reserve Bank Data.
CIA World Factbook.
Economic Freedom Index.