1. The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Perspective

2. Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns
Variation by County in Northern Ireland
Variation over Time in Northern Ireland
International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland)
Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF)
Theories of Change
Results of Statistical Analyses (time permitting)

4. Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

6. Membership Decline by County, 1961-2001

7. Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism
General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East)
Height of the ‘Troubles’ ( ) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree
However, general trend is a steady decline
Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking into account population flows.

11. International Orange Similarities
All jurisdictions experience growth until the 1920’s
All decline in the Depression years
All experience growth after World War II
All experience steady decline in recent decades
N.I; Scotland 1; Scotland 2 ; Ontario; Newfoundland

12. International Differences
Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Canada and decline in the period is sharper
Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

13. Inter-Fraternal Patterns
Masons appear to have outdrawn Orange Order from late forties until late sixties in N.I. And since the 1920’s in Ontario ONT; NI 1
Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2
Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange NI3
IOOF declined in step with Orange in Ontario ONT

14. Summary
Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities
Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

15. Theories of Fraternal Change
Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges
Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private insurance and expanded recreational options
Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline.
Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

16. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across County
NI: Economic factors not important ( ). Denomination key: % RC and %Other Protestant increase membership; %Methodist and % Presbyterian strongly decrease it.
SCT: Irish born population of fifty years ago, interacting with Catholic population today. But each on its own is not powerful, both are needed. All other factors pale in comparison. (for )
ONT: No strong factor - Irish Protestant population most powerful. Proportion Irish, French or Catholic has limited effect. ( )

17. Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time
Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during
Orangeism in N.I. Responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then
Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970
Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970
High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during
Still more work needed in this and other areas