1. Successful Stock Signals
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for traders and portfolio managers

2. for traders and portfolio managers
Introduction
Presentation of the book “Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers”
By Tom Lloyd Sr., author
Articles in MarketWatch.com
SeekingAlpha.com
Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine
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3. for traders and portfolio managers
Marc Chaikin
“As a strong believer in the importance of combining fundamentals with technical analysis, I was immediately engaged in this book by Tom Lloyd. Successful Stock Signals reads like a trading diary written in the moment. WITH ITS WEALTH OF CHARTS THE READER SEES A CLEAR CUT PATH TO PROFITS. Tom puts you in the driver’s seat as he analyzes stock after stock with the tools he has used successfully in a long Wall Street career. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS IN THE STOCK MARKET, THIS BOOK IS A MUST READ.”
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4. for traders and portfolio managers
Jeff Hirsch
“I have been following Tom Lloyd’s timely signals for decades. In this treatise Tom Lloyd pulls together a library’s worth of the most effective technical analysis tools and MARKET TIMING TRICKS OF THE TRADE. TRADE LIKE A PRO WITH TOM’S SIGNALS PLAYBOOK.”
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5. for traders and portfolio managers
Chip Anderson
“Successful Stock Signals quickly focuses in on the key things technical investors need to concentrate on in order to be successful—technical signals that work. UNLIKE MANY OTHER INVESTING BOOKS THAT BEAT AROUND THE BUSH, TOM LLOYD GIVES YOU GREAT, USABLE ADVICE THAT CAN HELP ANYONE FIND GREAT TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN ANY MARKET.”
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6. for traders and portfolio managers
Topics of Discussion
Integrating technical analysis with fundamentals
Use technical analysis as the first step in selecting stocks--trading
Use fundamental analysis as the second step--investing
This approach keeps you in stocks beating the Index and having good fundamentals
Buy & Sell Signals illustrated
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7. for traders and portfolio managers
Trading
Successful Signals for Traders
Candlesticks: Hammer and Hanging Man reversal signals
RSI, Relative Strength Index
MACD, Mac Dee, Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Fast Stochastic
Support and Resistance
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8. for traders and portfolio managers
Investing
Successful Signals for Portfolio Managers
200-day moving average
Relative Strength vs. Index
The crosses: 50-day X 200-day
Know Sure Thing
Chaikin Money Flow
On-Balance Volume
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9. Technicals vs. Fundamentals
Traders use technicals
Portfolio managers use fundamentals
Traders look at fundamentals
Portfolio managers look at technicals
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10. for traders and portfolio managers
APPLE CONCLUSIONS
Excellent example of buy and hold
Strong 200-day uptrend
Outperforming the Index
Every pullback “buy on weakness”
Red dots parabolic SAR identifying sellers pulling price back to the 200
Look for change in trend, a change in character.
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11. for traders and portfolio managers
: INVESTING
BUY & HOLD USE 200-DAY MA ALLOW FOR MINOR VIOLATIONS
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12. for traders and portfolio managers
Google Conclusions
Frequent violation of 200 uptrend
Good for trading
Latest trade from $570 to $690
Starting with Chaikin Money Flow turning green.
Buy signals from On-Balance Volume, Accumulation Distribution and Relative Strength vs Index
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13. SELLING BUYING : TRADING Google 9/22/2018
NICE TRADE FROM 570 TO 690
ON-BALANCE VOLUME
AONACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION
RRELATIVE STRENGTH
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14. Successful Signals IBM
Triple top see (1) on the chart
Inverted head/shoulders bottom(2)
Double top (3)
Break below the 200-day (4)
“V” bottom (5)
Break above the 200-day (6)
Long-term uptrend confirmed (7)
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15. for traders and portfolio managers7 7 33 1 1 4 7 6 2 5
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Beat the Index
IBM 50-yr. turtle beating the Index
HPQ 50-yr hare beating the Index
IBM “better name”
HPQ “better performance”
Now does the turtle catch the hare?
Picking long-term best performers
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18. for traders and portfolio managers
HPQ BEATS IBM
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19. for traders and portfolio managers
HPQ TROUNCES THE INDEX
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20. Successful Signals HLF
Negative divergences to uptrends
RSI dropping from overbought
MACD breaks below signal line
Double top in place before drop
Aroon drops below the signal line
Chaikin money flow anemic
D1 D2 negative crossover
Signals detected short selling
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Successful Signals FB
Enormous candlestick sell signal on day one (supply)
Downtrend reversal on point & figure chart on day one (supply)
Confirming sell signals on day 2, 3 and 7, (supply)
Predestined to fall because of IPO errors in pricing and supply
The law of supply & demand determines price. Facebook is the poster child.
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26. Successful Signals MSFT
Double top
“W” bottom
Bullish rectangle
Breakout
Long-term flat lined chart
No growth for 10 years
Can you believe the breakout?
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Shaky Signals LULU
Long-term, 5-year, 200-day uptrend with violations.
2- year uptrend with violations
Uptrend in Relative Strength with violations
On-balance volume and MFI show weakness
Chaikin money green 2 years, but sharp drop recently.
Bounces after earnings
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29. for traders and portfolio managers:
BEFORE EARNINGS
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30. Successful Signals LULU
MACD
Stochastic
RSI
Keltner Channels
Pivot Point
Parabolic SAR
Directional Movement D1 D2
Relative Strength
MFI
On-balance volume
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32. Successful Signals Sell GMCR
Stochastic sell signal at top
MACD sell signal at the top
MFI sell signal at the top
Keltner sell signal off the top
Relative Strength sell signal off top
Candlestick sell signals off the top
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34. Successful Signals Buy GMCR Bounce
Stochastic buy signal off bottom
Parabolic SAR buy signal
MFI buy signal
RSI buy signal
Aroon buy signal
Relative Strength buy signal
Directional Movement buy signal
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36. Successful Signals NFLX Top & Bottom
Chaikin Money Flow, CMF
Moving Average Convergence Divergence, MACD (Mac Dee)
Percentage Price Oscillator, PPO
Relative Strength
OBV, MFI, AD
200 day MA
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39. Successful Signals RIMM, BBRY
Negative divergences
Topping signals
Double bottom
Dead cat bounce
Double top
Lower highs and lower lows
Breaks bottom
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41. Successful Buy Signals
RIMM dead cat bounce $35 to $86
Stochastic leads at $39
Candlesticks and gap at $50
Major gap at $60
Confirmed by CMF, MACD, Volume, OBV, RSI, D1D2 and Relative Strength.
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42. for traders and portfolio managers
RIMM buy signals for bounce
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43. Successful Signals PCLN:
Successful Signals PCLN
Money flow turns negative
MFI shows selling
Price breaks below 50 day MA
MACD shows sellers
Believing signals before earnings
Relative Strength shows selling
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45. PCLN Negative Earnings
Negative surprise in earnings
Money flow sell signal was right
Weakness in other signals correct
Price drops 101 points
Relative Strength sell signal appears
200-day sell signal
PPO sell signal confirmed
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47. Successful Signals LNKD
Money flow turns positive at $70
20-day crosses above 50-day MA
MACD shows buying
MFI turns up
OBV turns up
AD, Accum/Distr moves up
Market turns up
Price moves from $70 to $120
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49. Successful Signals Long Term, SBUX
Monthly chart for long term signals
Chaikin money flow shows buy and sell signals
MACD histogram leads money flow
Double top, Candlestick bottom
Stochastic leads MACD buy/sell
RSI confirms the Stochastic
OBV, RS and +D1-D1 buy/sell
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51. Successful Signals CMG
MFI sell signal at $442 top
Money flow sell at $400
Relative Strength sell at $390
Fibonacci level at $324 fails
OBV rolls over and down at $300
Major sell signal $400 to 325
Elliott 5th wave to $233
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Successful Signals GS
Long-term downtrend signals
RSI and MFI sell the top at $239
Stochastic confirms RSI and MFI
OBV identifies the top
Same signals identify the bottom
Resumption of downtrend after dead cat bounce from $46 to $180
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55. Successful Signals GS buy signals
Bouncing up from $90 bottom
Chaikin money flow turns green
Continuous MACD buy cycles
Keltner channel turns up
Relative Strength turns up
Move up hits resistance at $126
Blue arrows show latest bounce up
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57. Successful Signals CRM
Price violates 200-day
50-day MA comes down to 200
Price recovers above 200-day MA
50-day bounces up from 200
Money flow turns green before eps
After eps big white candle closes at up 1.77
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59. Successful Signals Trading CRM
Do you buy on the open?
Opens at $148
MACD, RSI, Stochastic buy signals
Parabolic SAR buy signal
50-min and 200-min uptrends
Price running along the top of the upward Bollinger Band
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60. DAY TRADING SALESFORCE.COM MONDAY, 8/27/12 buy 148, sell 152
Buy bottom, sell top
Buy bottom,
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Successful Signals HD
Breakout buy from $38 to $65
Candlestick signals lead
Relative Strength leads
+D1-D1 Directional leads
Volume/price breakout at $40
Golden cross 50-day X 200-day
OBV and ADX confirm
Signals remain positive to $65
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65. Successful Signals TA+Fundamentals
First step: find a good chart
Second step: find good fundamentals
S&P chart combines both TA and fundamentals
Home Depot chart shows earnings, analyst target, star rating plus TA signals Rel.Strength, Moving Avg.
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67. Successful Signals WMT
Breakout at $55 runs up to $78
Pre-breakout signals: RSI, Candlesticks, Relative Strength, price gap, +D1-D1 Direction, and PPO
Concurrent signals: Chaikin money flow, change in trend and ADX
TA + Fundamentals agree
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70. Successful Signals Short squeeze
GMCR positive surprise creates short squeeze
Day trading the bounce up from the bottom
Big gap up no retracement very bullish
Day trading the pullback in Stochastic and MACD
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Gap up from bottom starts squeeze
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72. Successful Signals SPY
Long-term market signals 20 years
SPY surrogate for S&P 500
5 Elliott waves to double top in 2000 at or near 1246 S&P
5 Elliott wave to head & shoulders top in 2007 at near 1415
Currently in the 5th Elliott wave at 150 or near 1500
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74. Successful Signals SPY
Long-term 10-year signals
Sell signals in 2008 crash
Buy signals in 2009 Fed rescue
OBV buy signal at bottom at $75
RSI and Stochastic buy at $80
MACD buy at $100
Money flow buy at $100
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76. Successful Signals SPY
Weekly chart buy/sell signals
Buy test of 200-day uptrend
Sell the RSI and Stochastic overbought signals
200 and 50-day uptrend
Latest Stochastic buy signal
Not yet confirmed by MACD buy signal
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78. Successful Signals SPY
Short term triple top
All signals turn negative
Start of short term selling cycle
MACD, Stochastic RSI and Know Sure Thing are leading signals to drop in price
Buy signals on the bounce back up
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80. Successful Signals SPY Day Trading
A) lead to MACD buy signal
B) RSI leads the MACD buy
C) Stochastic leads the MACD buy
D & E) Candlestick lead to MACD
E,F,G,H &I Leading indicators
J) Lagging indicator (valuable too)
Sell signals just the reverse
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82. Successful Signals Summary
Charts are 100% accurate in signaling changes in supply and demand.
No one should be surprised where price is going, signals tell you that.
Fundamentals are only one factor creating supply and demand
For traders,signals of supply/demand are more important than fundamentals
For portfolio managers fundamentals are the factor for determining price targets.
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83. for traders and portfolio managers
Conclusions
For traders, use leading indicators to identify supply and demand ahead of the crowd and high frequency traders.
For portfolio managers use leading indicators of Relative Strength so stocks outperform the benchmarks.
Use TA and then Fundamentals
Pick good charts check for good fundamentals. Avoids value traps.
Keeps portfolio in outperforming stocks.
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