1. The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
© 2006 by James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved.

2. HEADLINE: Votes Assigned to Wrong Candidates!
Wrong-precinct voting received press coverage due to very high returns for third-party candidates in Cuyahoga County precincts.
AP, Nov. 12, 2004:
"Cleveland Paper Cites Voter Problems,
Votes Assigned to Wrong Candidates“
… "approximately 1,000 voters in the two precincts cast ballots just steps away at machines meant for the other precinct…."
The first question I wanted answered was:
"How many Ohio votes were switched?"

3. Ohio Summary: 2004 Presidential Election
State
E-Vote
Op-Scan
Punch
# Votes
5,574,476
870,237
670,058
4,034,181
% Votes
15.61
12.02
72.37
Kerry
2,659,664
451,975
293,998
1,913,691
Bush
2,796,147
406,697
363,895
2,025,555
Badnarik
14,331
2,967
1,177
10,187
Peroutka
11,614
1986
990
8,638
Non-Votes
92,720
6,612
9,998
76,110
% Non-Votes
1.663
0.760
1.492
1.887
Counties 88 7 13 68
Ave Bush Shift
0.903
0.615
0.536
1.003
Over four million votes, nearly 3/4ths of recorded votes in Ohio, were cast in Punch Card counties.
The Punch Card counties averaged 1.89 % non-votes, for 76,110 voters.
Statewide, 92,720 of the Presidential ballots in Ohio are non-votes.
Cuyahoga County recorded 10,667 less Presidential votes than voters.

4. Defining Cross-Voting and Vote-Switching
‘wrong-precinct voting' - casting ballots at a voting machine for one precinct then counting the votes with the ballot order for a different precinct.
‘cross-vote' - a vote counted other than as intended.
‘vote-switch’ - a cross-vote altering the victory margin by two votes.
‘vote-switching’ - cross-voting the major candidates.
Cross-voting can alter election results.
Cross-voting presents opportunities to manipulate elections.
Where cross-voting occurs and how much cross-voting occurs determines how election results change.
Every cross-vote subtracts AND adds somewhere else.

5. Five Ohio 2004 Presidential Ballot Orders
How many and which ballot orders are combined at a location determines how wrong-precinct votes are counted. 1 b B K d p 2 3 4 5
Ballot orders are rotated to assure candidates
equal occurrence at the positions in the order.
Ballot order symbols (5th candidate was Nader): b = Badnarik, B = Bush, K = Kerry, d = disqualified, p = Peroutka
Collocated votes are switched by cross-precinct voters.

6. Cuyahoga: Benedictine High School Voting Results
Precinct
Ballot Order b
Bush
Kerry d p
1806 Cleveland 4F
KdpbB 20
299
215
1814 Cleveland 4N
bBKdp
164 12
334 10
1806 K d p b B
1814 b B K d p 
At the most egregious Cuyahoga County cross-voting location, 215 Kerry voters in precinct 1806 cross-voted, punching the third position using precinct 1814 voting machines. Precinct 1806 counted those 215 votes for Peroutka. Also, Kerry voters from precinct 1814 punched the first position in 1806, and up to 164 Kerry votes counted for Badnarik.
Kerry lost 379 votes, 37% of his vote in the two precincts, while Bush lost up to 10 votes to Peroutka.

7. Cuyahoga County 2004 Presidential Results
600,000+ Precinct Cast Votes Kerry had more than double Bush’s support. Cuyahoga County is Ohio’s largest, with the highest Kerry support.
600,467 Votes b
1,683
Bush
192,163
Kerry
394,354 d
10,667 p
1,600
"In Cuyahoga County alone, one of every eight Ohio Kerry voters could have voted at an adjacent precinct with the wrong ballot order."

8. Candidate Support Determines Cross-Voting Impact
The relationship of candidate support and cross-voting’s impact is seen at Benedictine High School. Nearly every voter was a Kerry voter. Kerry lost about 38 times more votes than Bush.
Loss of votes to random cross-voting is proportional to candidate support.
Ballot order combinations determine cross-vote outcomes.
A vote-switch between the major party contenders counts twice - altering the margin by 2, adding to one column, subtracting from the other.
Ballot Orders
Cross-Votes 1 b B K d p
K-B
B-b 2
K-d
B-K

9. Two Ballot Combinations, Two Cross-Voting Scenarios
Ballot Orders
Cross-Votes x b B K d p
K-B
B-b y
K-d
B-K
K-b
B-p z
K-p
B-d
Cross-voting the upper ballot orders, with Bush and Kerry collocated one above the other in the same column, can switch their votes. Kerry voters from precinct “x” will punch the second position if they vote in precinct “y.” The second position tallied in their own precinct counts for Bush.
‘Vote-switches’ - cross-votes altering the major candidate margin by two votes - have twice the impact on outcome that cross-votes to third-party candidates or to disqualified have.

10. Ballot Orders and Vote-Switching Probabilities
Probability of Vote-Switching with Major Candidate Collocation
Ballot Orders\Precincts Combination Subsets:
Location Subsets
2\2
3\3
4\4
5\5
Probabilities: P =
1.0
0.50
0.333
0.250
With more ballot orders, vote-switching probability decreases.
Vote-switching only occurs when the major candidates are collocated in the same ballot order position.
How many precincts at the location -that is, how many candidates are in the same ballot position- determines the probabilities of vote-switching.
If Kerry and Bush are collocated, with 2 ballot orders and 2 precincts (2\2):
1 precinct has a 1.0 probability a Kerry cross-vote will count for Bush. 1 precinct has a 1.0 probability a Kerry cross-vote will count for disqualified.

11. Wrong-Precinct Voting and Cross-Voting Ratesx b B K d p y z
‘cross-vote'
a vote counted other than as intended
A wrong-precinct voter from precinct “y”
cross-votes in precinct “x” or
votes as intended in precinct “z”
With more precincts than ballot orders:
Some wrong-precinct votes count as intended.
The probabilities of cross-voting are variably altered.
The distribution of probabilities may become unequal.

12. Precinct\Ballot Order Combinations and Cross-Vote Probabilities
Numbers of Voters and average Cross-Vote Probabilities.
Many more voters populate the highest cross-vote probability combinations.
Numbers of Voters 2 3 4 5
145,461
52,169
133,033
7,977
45,169
47,404
11,955
44,939
8,780 6
2,562
7,939
4,443 7
2,930
2,171 9
4,255 10
3,727
Cross-Vote Probabilities 2 3 4 5
1.0
0.67
0.63
0.83
0.78
0.90 6
0.73
0.81
0.93 7
0.76
0.91 9 10
0.89
Locations with 2-10 precincts per location and 2-5 ballot orders.

13. Cuyahoga: Populations of Precinct Combinations
Voters:
524,914
2\2
145,461
2\2+
60,146
3\3+
62,616
3\3
133,033
4\4
47,404
4\4+
57,133
5\all
19,121
9.42% of Ohio
Distribution of ballot order combinations is not random.
Over 3/4ths of the voters at multiple ballot order locations are at locations with either two or three ballot orders.

14. Ballot Order Combinations and Candidate Support
Cuyahoga County ballot order combinations are not randomly distributed in relation to the level of candidate support.
Combinations with the highest vote-switch and cross-vote probabilities were located in areas with the highest Kerry support.

15. Cross-Voting and Vote-Switching Factors
Probability of Vote-Switching
with Major Candidate Collocation
Subsets
2\2
3\3
4\4
5\5
Probability
1.0
0.50
0.333
0.250
A combination of factors determine the outcome of wrong-precinct voting.

16. Ballot Order Combinations at 2 \ 2 Locations
The 2 \ 2 Locations (2 ballot orders and 2 precincts) have the greatest disparity with random vote-switching probabilities. The 2 \ 2 random vote-switch probability is 0.25.
2 \ 2
Cross-Vote Combinations
K-B
K-d
K-p
K-b
# Voters
47,315
47,135
25,671
25,340
P =
0.33
0.32
0.18
0.17
At 2 \ 2 locations, one-third of cross-votes are probable Kerry-Bush vote-switches.

17. Precinct \ Ballot Order Subset Probabilities
Ballot order combinations are skewed in favor of vote-switching.
Locations 
 Vote-Switch and Cross-Vote Probabilities
K-B
K-d
K-b
K-p
K-K
all
0.26
0.25
0.21
0.074
2\2
0.33
0.32
0.17
0.18
0.0
2\2+
0.13
0.09
0.24
3\3
0.27
0.23
3\3+
0.22
0.19
4\4
4\4+
0.20
0.12
5\all
0.06
The vote-switch and cross-vote probability of each subset is determined by the number of voters using each ballot order and the combinations of ballot orders at the voting locations.

18. Third-Party Votes Evidencing the Cross-Voting
2 \ 2
K-B
K-d
K-p
K-b
# Voters
47,315
47,135
25,671
25,340
Each 2 \ 2 precinct has a 1.0 probability of cross-voting outcome.
Where Kerry-Badnarik
cross-vote probability = 1.0, Badnarik’s vote increased five-fold.
Where Kerry-Peroutka
cross-vote probability = 1.0, Peroutka’s vote increased eight-fold.
K-B
K-d
K-b
K-p
% b
0.24
0.18
1.19
0.20
% p
0.14
0.15
0.26
1.93

19. Examine cuyahoga_t_tests. xls (or download image file)
Examine cuyahoga_t_tests.xls (or download image file). How do you answer the question: “Why do results differ when populations are segregated by the probability of vote-switch outcome?”

20. How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
© 2007 by James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved. Permissions.
Article:
The article introduces the notation used in the data files and herein.
Next PowerPoint is precinct_switching.ppt:
Inadvertent Wrong-Precinct Voting or Vote-Switching Fraud
Database: cuyahoga_precincts.mdb
Spreadsheets:
Tests of Population Means cuyahoga_t_tests.xls - 30Kb
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