1. California’s Climate Change Targets and Potential Strategies
Supervisory and CARB Board member John Gioia
August 30, 2017

2. California’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and Laws
Executive Order S (2005) - Establishes GHG reduction targets for the State; 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
AB 32 (2006) - Establishes comprehensive program to achieve GHG reductions to 1990 levels by 2020
SB 375 (2008) - Supports AB 32, supports aligning land use and transportation planning with environmental goals through Sustainable Communities Strategies
Executive Order B (2015) - Establishes 40% below 1990 levels by as intermediate target toward 2050 goals
SB 32 (2016) – Calls for State to reduce GHGs to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030
SB 1386 (2016) – State must consider protection and management of natural and working lands in strategy to meet GHG reduction goals
CA’s climate change policy landscape has grown significantly since 2005
This slide shows the most relevant and overarching State Govt Administrative Orders and Laws to the grant program – what’s most important to understand is that beginning as early as California has established a broad and comprehensive program for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve a series of reduction targets tied to a specific timeline.
By 2020 we are looking to get back to 1990 GHG emissions levels.
By 2030, 40% below 1990 levels.
And by 2050, 80% below 1990 levels.
Early in this process, CA also passed landmark legislation - SB 375, which made changes to how regional transportation planning was done to better support achieving these climate goals, which I’ll talk more about later.

3. Transportation is the largest source of GHG Emissions in California
This slide shows the most current inventory of GHG emissions sources in CA – the transportation sector continues to dominate as the largest source of emissions. When accounting for the production of fuels from the industrial sector used in transportation, total transportation emissions are over 50% of the pie.
Source: CARB, GHG Emissions Inventory, 2017 Edition

4. 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan Update
3/7/2017
2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan Update
Draft Plan released January 2017
Establishes framework of action to meet most aggressive climate target in North America
40% reduction in GHGs by 2030 compared to 1990 levels
Builds on California’s success reducing GHGs as well as lays out new actions
Includes input from a range of State agencies and public and stakeholder processes
The Climate Change Scoping Plan is the overarching framework of actions for the State to meet its climate goals. It lays out the actions the State intends to take to address emissions and meet the targets.
CARB prepares the plan with input from a range of state agencies in a public stakeholder process.
The first Scoping Plan was adopted in 2008, an update occurred in 2014 and another update is currently in process this year.
The significance of this year’s update is that it is the first to address and lay out new actions to help meet the recently established more aggressive SB 32 requirement of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.

5. Objective for Scoping Plan
Achieve 2030 SB 32 requirements
Provide direct GHG emissions reductions
Provide air quality co-benefits
Minimize emissions leakage
Support climate investment in disadvantages communities
Protect public health
Facilitate sub-national and national collaboration
Support cost-effective and flexible compliance
Support Clean Power Plan and other federal action
The objectives for the Draft 2017 Scoping Plan are outlined here.

6. Scoping Plan Transportation Scenario that Achieves Targets
Mobile Source Strategy – help State achieve its federal and state air quality standards
Low Carbon Fuel Standard updates
Sustainable Freight Action Plan
SB 375 – support sustainable community development
SB 350 – increase renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transport electrification
SB 1383 – Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Reduction Plan
New Refinery Efficiency Measure – 20 percent by 2030
Fewer GHG emissions per barrel of a refined product
Post-2020 Cap-and-Trade Program
Trading and offset usage limit of 8 percent
The 2017 Scoping Plan includes an analysis of strategies that can achieve the emissions targets. A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to study how the varying sectors interact and the emission reductions from different strategies. This builds upon the prior analysis presented in CARB’s Mobile Source Strategy report published in Several of the most important strategies are listed here.

7. Key Strategies Assumed in the Scenario
Establish more stringent engine performance standards for cleaner combustion technologies
Increase penetration of ZEV technology
Slow growth in vehicle miles traveled
Ensure durability of emission control systems
Expand use of cleaner renewable fuels
Conduct pilot studies to demonstrate new technologies
Incentivize deployment of cleanest technologies
Details of select strategy actions which relate to the transportation sector are shown here:
Vehicle Technology Goals
Promote a strong set of complimentary policies through incentives programs, infrastructure investment, broad education and outreach, and regulation that accelerate the deployment of low-emission and electrified vehicles.
Strive towards 100 percent ZEV sales by 2050 for the light duty sector, and ensure electrification expands in other mobile sources.
Vibrant Communities and Landscapes/ VMT Reduction Goals
Promote policies to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) statewide.
Promote transportation fuel system infrastructure for electric, fuel-cell, and other emerging clean technologies.
“Promote potential efficiency gains from automated transportation systems and identify policy priorities to maximize sustainable outcomes from automated and connected vehicles (preferably ZEVs)” (The 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan Update, January 2017)
Clean Fuels Goals
Electrify the transportation sector by using electricity and hydrogen.
Promote research development and deployment of low carbon fuels as RNG and renewable hydrogen.
Reduce carbon intensity of existing liquid and gaseous transportation fuels.
Sustainable Freight Goals
Increase freight system efficiency at certain facilities and along freight corridors.
Increase the deployment of zero emission and near-zero emission vehicles and equipment.
Continue to promote the development of renewable fuels.
Encourage State and Federal incentive programs that support pilot and demonstration programs.

8. Additional GHG/VMT reductions achievements are needed.
3/7/2017
Scoping Plan Scenario Results for On-road vehicle sectors, full well-to-wheel GHG emissions
Additional GHG/VMT reductions achievements are needed.
7.5% reduction in 2035, 15% in 2050
Meeting the more aggressive SB 32 goals will require getting more reductions from all sectors.
The message in the Proposed Scoping Plan relative to the transportation sector is that we will need to get more from strategies that will provide greater mobility options and improve the efficiency of the transportation system. This graphic shows forecasted greenhouse gas emissions for the transportation sector, and the three main strategy categories for we meet our goals.
As you can see, reducing greenhouse gases relies primarily upon advances in vehicle technology and fuels, through widespread deployment of zero-emission vehicles, and renewable energy to power them.
However, even with aggressive transformation in these areas we will still need reductions in vehicle activity beyond what today’s plans forecast to close the gap and meet these goals. These reductions will be achieved through ongoing improvements in community and multi modal transportation design, efficiencies from intelligent transportation systems, connected and autonomous vehicles, and on-demand mobility services. This transformation has the potential to deliver enormous gains in safety, while also reducing traffic congestion, improving efficiency, and advancing equity.

9. Scenario Details from Mobile Source Strategy

10. SB 375: Sustainable Communities Strategies
California’s 18 MPOs develop Sustainable Communities Strategies to meet region-specific GHG targets
Identify land use and transportation strategies to meet regional targets
Once plan is adopted, CARB must review and accept
On transportation systems emissions, local and regional agencies have already begun significant work across much of the State. Nearly ten years ago, the State passed SB This law called out the role that cities, counties, and regional planning agencies have as critical partners in helping advance planning for neighborhoods with more carbon-friendly transport options (biking, walking, transit, pooling) without compromising accessibility, safety, and many of the things we care about.
The law requires California’s 18 MPOs to develop regional plans called Sustainable Communities Strategies or SCSs, identifying land use and transportation strategies to meet specific regional GHG reduction targets set by CARB. CARB reviews and determines whether submitted plans would meet targets if implemented.
To date, our agency has reviewed 20 SCSs, with some regions on their second or third iterations.

11. Land Use and Transportation Strategies
Continued advancement and implementation of these plans is needed. This calls for further implementation, investment, and innovation by regional, county, and city transportation and planning agencies relative to the strategy types in this table.
This is a list of the strategy types that have either been included in regional SCS plans across the State to date or that we expect to be explored based on what we know of existing trends.
The research tells us that the most effective efforts will be those that advance a combination of these strategy types. For example land use planning activities in coordination with a transportation project, like updating general plan land use/zoning codes to increase development around key transportation nodes that offer a number of transportation choices.
It will require planning and investment to support increased transit, bike and pedestrian infrastructure and improvements, helping to promote trip reduction programs, incentives for alternative mode use, ridesharing and pooling, looking at pricing mechanisms such as demand-based parking pricing where transportation alternatives are present, and coming up with innovative solutions for using emerging mobility options and technologies to continue reducing GHGs.

12. Local Action Planning
Many cities and counties already developing Climate Action Plans
Example community-scale GHG emissions sources:
Transportation
Energy consumption
Water/wastewater
Solid waste
Natural and working lands
Many cities and counties are already setting GHG reduction targets, developing community-scale climate action plans, and making progress toward reducing these and other emission sources.
Local governments are essential partners and play an important role because they have broad influence, and sometimes-exclusive authority, over activities that enable or thwart uptake of policies that can contribute to GHG emissions associated with transportation, water use, wastewater treatment, waste generation and treatment, energy consumption, and natural and working lands.
As of Spring 2017, 60 percent of cities and over 70 percent of counties in CA have completed a GHG inventory, and 42 percent of local governments have completed a climate, energy, or sustainability plan that directly addresses GHG emissions. Many other community-scale local plans such as general plans, have emissions reduction measures incorporated as well.

13. Local Action
CARB recommends setting community-wide goal tied to statewide goal consistent with SB 32, Under 2 MOU, and Paris Climate Agreement
6 MTCO2e per capita by 2030
2 MTCO2e per capita by 2050
Appendix B of Draft Proposed Scoping Plan
Examples of local municipal code changes, zoning changes, and policies
Potentially feasible mitigation measures for individual projects under CEQA when the local jurisdiction is the lead agency
For years, local agencies have been requesting guidance from CARB on how to address Statewide GHG emissions reductions requirements in local planning.
The Proposed 2030 Scoping Plan offers some recommendations to help support further innovative actions at the local level. Local governments still retain authority to make land use decisions and choose applicable, evidence-based environmental threshold of significance for their individual discretionary actions.
In the Scoping Plan, CARB recommends that local governments aim to achieve a community-wide goal tied to the statewide goal of no more than six (6) metric tons CO2e per capita by 2030 and no more than two (2) metric tons CO2e per capita by These emissions goals are consistent with the statewide emissions limits in SB 32, the Under 2 MOU, and Paris climate agreement.
In addition, Appendix B of the Draft Proposed Scoping Plan provides examples of:
Local municipal code changes, zoning changes, or policy directions that could apply broadly to the community within the general plan or climate action plan area
Potentially feasible mitigation measures that could be considered for individual projects under CEQA when a local jurisdiction is the lead agency.
This is not considered an exhaustive list, and not all policies will apply to every jurisdiction.
CARB hopes the recommendations for local action in the Scoping Plan will be a useful reference for municipal planners and decision makers.

14. Tools to Support Local Action
State agencies are also continuing to support local government actions in a number of ways.
CoolCalifornia.org is an informational website that includes a “local government toolkit”
to help local governments, small businesses, schools, and households reduce
emissions. The local government toolkit includes carbon calculators, success stories,
climate action plan templates, a Funding Wizard that outlines available grant and loan
programs, and monitoring and tracking tools developed through the Statewide Energy
Efficiency Collaborative in coordination with CARB and our Office of Planning and Research.
The California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research’s General Plan Guidelines
provide specific, updated guidance for addressing GHG emissions in general plans
and related documents.
Additionally, a significant portion of the $3.4 billion in cap-and-trade expenditures to date has either
directly or indirectly supported local government efforts to reduce emissions, including
$142 million to support Transformative Climate Communities and provide technical
assistance for local planning efforts.
CARB is also currently developing a centralized database and map that will allow local
governments to view and compare emission inventories, reduction targets, climate
action planning strategies, and other climate planning materials. This information will
help jurisdictions around California identify what climate action strategies are working in
other, similar jurisdictions across the State, and will facilitate collaboration among local
governments pursuing GHG reduction strategies and goals.