1. Nordbotten and Denmark
Lars Thygesen
Danish statistics reform
registers, new and unforeseen needs
Nordbotten
Poul Jensen

2. The impact of Nordbotten on statistical thinking in Denmark
1960
1966
1964
Nordbotten in Nordic Statistical Meeting Helsingfors
Nordbotten in Nordic Chief Statisticians Meeting Copenhagen
Ohlsson in Nordic Statistical Meeting Copenhagen
Nordic cooperation inspiration
EDP change cost structure
micro data archives
reuse
data linkage
Until then: One or a few prinicpal uses. Tables
Future: Collect data continuously, use when needed
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3. Ingvar Ohlsson lectures, Copenhagen 1964
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4. Poul Jensen Aage la Cour Kjeld Bjerke Henning Friis Erling Jørgensen
Axel Holm
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5. Milestones Kampmann, last Census Skak-Nielsen
Act: Access to adm + influence on them
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6. Milestones #2
1976: -link to work places, - housing, education, occupation
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7. The basic ideas of Nordbotten – how they were implemented
Value of capital in stock
link
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8. The notion of a Statistical Information System
CPR
BDR
CBR
Educa-
tion
Employ-
ment
Person
id:
Person Number
Enterprise
CBR-No
Dwelling
Address
Tax
Inter-
view
Social
Question-
naire
Health
etc
Cadastre
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9. Reuse of data for multiple purposes
The Sample Archive from 1971 (originally the Mini Population Register)
a representative sample of the population from a variety of sources and all kinds of social and population statistics
longitudinal
aim: trying out different combinations of data, especially for analysis
a test bed for new combinations
The Law Model from 1980 onwards
aim: calculating the effects of contemplated legislation
contains micro data on a sample of the population
in cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Affairs
up and running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week
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10. Law Model
“...and when our expert has coded the proposed law changes into the terminal, we will in a few seconds witness the computer calculating the effects for a typical family - - based on a simulated model population”
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11. Consequences of archive method
Data collection not linked to use
Key purposes are foreseen
Almost anything can be made on demand
The statistical program
Paid services
Decided by the Board
Customers
Free on Internet/ StatBank.dk
Full (average) cost recovery
Examples: Municipality level
Detailed statistics
Examples: Small area statistics
Even greater detail
Research on micro data
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12. The filing or archive structure
Administrative
registers
Web
XML
Paper
Cleaning
Estimation
Statistical
registers
Aggregating
Analysis
Metadata
SumDatabase
Publishing -
StatBank
Denmark
Nordbotten stated that the total database should be seen as a data box with 3 dimensions: Statistical unit, variable and time. During the last 10 years, Statistics Denmark has made a real movement in that direction
dst.dk
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13. Micro data and longitudinal analysis
Elsebeth Lynge:
Occupational mortality
Researchers’ remote access:
300 institutes
3,000 researchers
400 active projects
2 M€
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14. Confidentiality and data protection
Challenge: Keep public trust
data security regulations
strict organisational and technical measures
limiting internal and external access to data
need to know principle
1978 Register Law
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15. The case of Denmark To link or not to link - that’s the question!
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16. Difficulties in practical implementation
Convincing ourselves
Champions of traditional statistics
University textbooks
Strong management commitment
Convincing the rest of the world
Suspicion
Bad experience history, especially WW2
Survey is the truth
Jørgen Wedebye 1979: “On what grounds can anyone claim that there has ever been one single piece of correct information recorded on a Census form?”
International meetings, Eurostat book
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17. Confidentiality and access to data
Difficulties #2
Confidentiality and access to data
The threat of a “Big Brother” society
Lawsuit against Statistics Denmark in by five municipalities
Data breaks
changes in the legislation
difficult to assess long-term trend
identify events
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18. Difficulties #3 Functional organisation
Nordbotten: “Today data for the survey of manufacturing and the wage statistics are collected separately. It will probably in many cases be more efficient to integrate the collection, i.e. collect as much as possible from a respondent when we have made a contact instead of repetitive visits or requests”
slow progress
Metadata
allow user to determine whether the data in the archive could be recombined to create new knowledge, e.g. to confirm or reject certain hypotheses
Internal as well as outside users claim this is the most important hindrance
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19. Nordbotten 1960:
“In 1970, there will probably not be any need to collect a census in the traditional way”
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20. 9/22/2018

21. The End!