1. Addressing Conservation Issues Using IMBCR Data and Results
Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory
Nick Van Lanen, Biologist

2. Addressing Conservation Issues Using IMBCR Data and Results
Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory
Nick Van Lanen, Biologist

3. NABCI Conservation Objectives
Determine status and trends
Inform management and policies to achieve conservation
Determine causes of population change
Evaluate conservation efforts
Set population objectives and priorities
Inform conservation design

4. Determine Status and Trends: Available Estimates
Density Estimates
Occupancy Estimates
We use these two important metrics

5. Determine Status and Trends: Interpreting precision
90% CI = interval with 90% chance to contain mean
90% CI that doesn’t contain another point estimate indicates “difference”
SE = Standard Error
Standard error intervals that don’t overlap indicate “difference”
%CV = Percent coefficient of variation: (standard error / estimate) X 100

6. Determine Status and Trends: What precision is reliable?
Is sampling intensity sufficient for your needs?
%CV of < 10% can detect 25% population change over 10 years
%CV of < 20% are generally reliable
%CV < 40% can detect 3% population change over 25 years with 80% power
Safe to say estimates with %CV > 100% have substantial uncertainty
%CV is shown in both occupancy and density tables

7. Determine Status and Trends: What influences precision?
Precision is generally impacted by:
Sampling intensity
Particularly low n in big strata/superstrata
# of detections within strata/superstrata
# of detections throughout IMBCR/BCR and fit of detection curve to data
Minimal impact
Occupancy precision behaves differently
Quadratic curve SE
Psi

8. Determine Status and Trends: Compare Estimates Across Time
Need for trend information has been conveyed
Requires quite a few years of data
Poor %CV will result in no findings (be aware of sample sizes, past and future)
Internal and external discussions on analytical approach to be used
Coming in the future
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

9. Determine Status and Trends: Compare Estimates Across Time
LARB Density: WY-BCR18
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

10. Inform Management and Policies: Comparing Estimates Across Space
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

11. Inform Management and Policies: Can use estimates as triggers for management action
ARIM: changes in Psi over time without similar changes throughout the region
Particular suite of
obligate species chosen
Density could be used just as easily
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

12. Inform Management and Policies: Habitat Modeling
Identifying thresholds
Can determine what actions are needed to alter habitat to support species
Sagebrush Sparrow
Brewer’s Sparrow
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

13. Inform Management and Policies: Mapping strata-level estimates
Can help map management responsibility

14. Inform Management and Policies: Predictive density mapping
“Set spatially explicit management and conservation priorities”
Identify areas for conservation
Identifying areas for habitat enhancement projects
Steering disturbance towards less sensitive areas

15. Inform Management and Policies: Predictive occupancy mapping
Not necessarily relegated to single spp! Also can be done w/ combining densities.

16. Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness

17. Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness (using Psi)

18. Inform Management and Policies: Determining Richness (using Psi)
Easily done for species for which we produce occupancy estimates (not full richness)
Sum Psi values
Square SE’s for each Psi value (variance)
Sum the variances
Take square root of variance (SE of richness)
Multiply SE (richness) by (Margin of Error)
Add and subtract Margin of Error from point estimate to produce 90% CI

19. Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

20. Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

21. Determine Causes of Population Change: Investigating correlations with process variables

22. Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Estimating Changes in Population Size
Can be used to demonstrate effectiveness of management actions
Maintain momentum for enhancement projects and management actions
Joint Ventures are interested in documenting the #’s of birds impacted
This information can inform JV Databases
(e.g., HABS, HABSPOP)
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

23. Evaluate Conservation Efforts: What if scenarios
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database
Area occupied is valid metric

24. Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Compare Estimates Across Treatments
Example: UT Dolores and Colorado River Tamarisk Removal Treatments
Species
Control
Treatment
LCL_D
UCL_D
LASP
1.75
9.82
10.53
32.58
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

25. Evaluate Conservation Efforts: Overlay Projects
Overlays are ideally suited to test efficacy of habitat management projects

26. Set Population Objectives & Management Priorities: Predictive occupancy & density mapping
4 Goals:
Integrate monitoring into bird management and conservation.
Coordinate monitoring among organizations and spatial scales
Increase statistical rigor of monitoring program designs
maintain data in high quality Database

27. Inform Conservation Design: Informing staff of IMBCR & uses
Rocky Mountain Avian Data Center
Specialized queries available
User’s guide exists
Recorded demonstrations available at:
User’s guide to IMBCR program and products coming soon for USFS
Likely applicable to other partners as well

28. Summary Status and Trends Density and occupancy estimates
Think about sample sizes and look at %CV
Are you getting the precision you want?
Compare estimates across time

29. Summary Informing Management & Policies Compare estimates across space
Use estimates as triggers for management action
Habitat modeling - where to work and what to do
Map strata-level estimates - quick spatial context
Predictive distribution maps
Compute species richness - metric to guide action

30. Summary Determine Causes of Population Change
Relatively little application of IMBCR program thus far
Investigating correlates for process variables can be informative
Evaluate Conservation Efforts
Models can estimate change in population or occupied area
Measure success
Compare estimates across treatments
Modeling allows for “what if” scenarios

31. Summary Set population objectives & management priorities
Use estimates to set population goals
Use distribution maps to prioritize management efforts
Inform Conservation Design
Get the word out to staff
Let us know how we can help
Trainings, workshops, webinars
Testimonials!

32. Documenting applied use of data
Help us sell the program to new partners and maintain support from current partners
How are you and your staff using estimates?
Please document uses on Griffin Groups

33. Questions?