1. Safeguarding Britain and the South West: National Finance, Food and Security and Brexit
G H Benett

2. Impacts of the Brexit Referendum
1. Reduction in the value of £ Sterling
Good for exporters and UK tourism, bad for savers in £ Sterling and importers including UK Government buying overseas supplies from military equipment to drugs for the NHS.
2. Rise in inflation
Leading to impacts on the “just about managing” struggling with pay which doesn’t keep pace with prices.
3. First interest rate rise for sometime 2/11/17 – good for savers bad for mortgage holders on variable rates.
Combined with 2. above potential for growing poverty, homelessness, rising divorce and crime rates (figures released on the last three in October 2017 point to rising strains on families).

3. Impacts of the Brexit Referendum
4. Apparent economic slowdown as businesses become cautious in the face of uncertainty
Particular concern at the potential decline in farm income and questions over subsidies.
5. Concern over UK’s economic future leading to cut in UK’s credit rating
Leading to pressure on UK to take bolder steps to cut structural debt or face difficulties in security cheap and easy credit to fund the national debt.
6. On-going social strain in the UK (divisions between Leavers and Remainers, Old and Young, Left and Right, immigrants and settled population)

4. Potential Impacts of Brexit Post-2019
Continuing uncertainty over the final shape of “Brexit” but in view of earlier assurances that withdrawal would be easy we have to imagine hard Brexit scenarios.
WTO rules likely scenario leading to higher tariffs for exporters to Europe, further falls in the price of £ Sterling impacting on prices, business failures, rising unemployment, difficulty in securing seasonal labour for agriculture, recession and social decay.
Price of food potentially impacted in a number of directions. In the short term European export markets damaged by decline in £ Sterling and raising of tariffs with, for example, serious decline in farm incomes until new markets emerge. Customs related hold ups at ports have the potential to disrupt supply chains and increase costs.
That in turn impacts on Government revenues, perceptions of the UKs economy leading to further potential downgrades of UK credit rating, forcing the government to ramp up austerity to prevent the UK facing a Greek style credit crisis.

5. What does the situation call for?
In the absence of any immediate prospect of a deal…..
1. Cuts in public expenditure to provide a Brexit cushion, to reassure the money markets and to support industries as they adapt to a changing situation. That raises questions about what to cut with Pensions and the NHS as the largest areas of government expenditure. Prime candidate at the moment defence with major implications for Plymouth.
2. An emphasis on productivity. That in turn leads to other difficult questions. Likewise, should encouragements be given to the economically inactive to draw them into the workplace and might that have social and health benefits? Should we already be giving support to the fishing industry to build new boats and train new crews?

6. However….. None of the possible courses of action politically possible
Weakness of UKs position evident to EU countries and others. UK a reduced power on the international stage.
UK’s soft power (the power of attraction decreased) with overseas visitors to the SW potentially put off by some of the features of Brexit Britain.
Government left to steer a course between significant dangers with little room for manoeuvre or error
Significant likelihood of compromise to UK national security
And that amidst growing evidence that national security was compromised during the referendum debate by foreign powers/overseas money seeking to increase social divisions in the UK, to damage the EU and NATO. South West MPs caught up in this with Ben Bradshaw (Exeter, Labour) playing a key role in holding the government to account on the issue.