1. A Monte Carlo Simulation
Genesys Model
A Monte Carlo Simulation

2. Random Variables
Water Conditions
Load (temperature)
Thermal FOR
Wind

3. Genesys Dispatch
Monthly
Window (user specified)
Day
Hour

4. Monthly Dispatch Hydro regulator determines available hydro
Hydro divided into blocks (URC, etc.)
Dispatch order of hydro blocks wrt thermal resources based on user input prices

5. Window Dispatch
Determines if system used flexibility in hourly dispatch from last window
Forecasts how much hydro will use in next window (including flex) and determines the order the discretionary hydro will have in the dispatch compared to other resources

6. Day Dispatch
Forecasts amount of hydro that will be needed in the next day
Shapes the day’s hydro energy in to hours based on the load shape, sustained peaking limits, and off peak minimums

7. Hourly Dispatch
Amount of hydro available comes from the day dispatch hourly shaping logic
Order of hydro in the dispatch (i.e. shadow price) comes from the window dispatch
Resources and loads specified by node
Resources meet within node loads first
Economic transactions done between nodes, taking into account transmission

8. Flexibility 1) Running monthly ave. hydro dispatch
2) Monthly hydro down to firm rights
If 1) exceeded 2) in the previous window, the difference is the amount of flexibility
Amount of flex can not exceed user input
As long as the system is flexing, the hydro shadow price is at the flex hydro price

9. Flexibility Example February 1929
Monthly Hydro Energy to Firm Rights = MWa
Window Running Average Hydro Dispatched Flex Amount
MWa MWh
MWa MWh
MWa MWh
MWa MWh .
MWa MWh
At the end of the month the hydro regulator is rerun and the flex amount is set back to zero. The regulator made up 256 MWa of flex at the end of this month.

10. Off-Peak Purchase Logic
User may specify an amount and the hours of availability of off-peak purchases
If the system is forecasted to need flex in the next window, the off-peak purchases will be made available to the hourly dispatch. Otherwise, they are not available.