1. Arab Spring Lt. Col. JÁNOS BESENYŐ (PhD)

2. Think about it…  What comes to mind when you think about the Arab Spring?  Is it revolution? What is a revolution?  Why now? Why this region?  Is it over and/or was it successful?  What was/is the significance?  Effect on Europe? USA?

4. History  Unexpected social and national movement which started in 2010-2011.  Named “Arabic Spring” to make a reference to the people spring from 1848, 1968, and 1989  Tunis: The self-immolation of a street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi (26) in the town of Sidi Bouzid - protest - „Jasmin Revolution” - President Ben Ali ousted, and government overthrown.  Egypt: Khaled Said beaten dead by police - protest - President Hosni Mubarak ousted, and government overthrown.  Libya: civil war, UN, NATO, EU, USA role - intervention - Kadhafi overthrown  Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain: Civil uprisings against the governments, despite government changes.  Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman: Major protests implementing government changes in response to protests.  Algeria, Iran, Mauritania,Western Sahara etc.: protests without changes  Civil War in Syria

5. Characteristics  Arab, not Sectarian (in general)  Lower classes, Students, Laborers, Military  Populist  Role of the Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc.)  Civil Resistance (strikes, protests, and demonstrations)  U.S. supported authoritarian regimes  After a short period western countries support the Arab Spring

6. Causes  Demographic structural factors (demographic boom, desertification, lack of drinking water)  Current economic crisis, inflation, living standards decrease (middle class), unemployment, extreme poverty  concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats, tribalism  A young, educated (literacy rates, availability of higher education), and idol populace  Lack of perspective for youngsters  Democratic deficit: dictatorship & authoritarian regimes  Human rights violations  Government corruption, nepotism  Expression of liberty

8. contestation  Interests of external actors  Non violence  No leadership  Use of facebook, internet  Domino effect.  Rebuild geopolitics : Security, economy, oil…

9. Impact of the Arab Spring  Egypt got closer to Iran, but other sunni countries afraid from shiite „empire”  Islamist freedom – salafists, etc. – stronger position  Sharia law  Christian winter  Security challenges to westerner countries  Migration  Most of the earlier problem are still exist

10. Was/Is it a Revolution? American & French Revolution  Radical overthrow of government  Republicanism  Class struggle to change the nature of politics and society  Occurred in a single geographical area  Development of nationalism Arab Spring  A wave of protests, strikes and demonstrations  Some overthrown of governments  Class struggle  Minority groups  Regional influence  New identity?  Arab Nationalist?

11. Questions ?  A new mediterrean Union ?  A democracy from “inside” ?  Risk of fundamentalism ?  The decline of the big power ? US, EU ?  The raise of new mediators ? Turkey ?

12. What is coming?

13. Biography  János Besenyő, Viktor Marsai: The first anniversary of the „Arab Spring” – What kind of change have taken place since then- Tradecraft Review, Periodical of the Military National Security Service, 2012, 2. Special Issue, pp. 5-16, http://real.mtak.hu/83773/7/2012_2_spec-5-16.pdfhttp://real.mtak.hu/83773/7/2012_2_spec-5-16.pdf  János Besenyő, Roland Gömöri: Arab Spring, Christian Fall? – The situation of Christian minorities in the Middle East after the Arab Spring – International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Herzliya, 2013. június, http://www.ict.org.il/Article/998/Arab_Spring_Christian_Fall http://www.ict.org.il/Article/998/Arab_Spring_Christian_Fall

14. QUESTION? THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!