1. National Center for State Courts VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study Fred Cheesman, Ph.D. Tara Kunkel, MSW The National Center for State Courts August 16, 2013

2. National Center for State Courts Purpose of the Study To complete a baseline outcome evaluation of all Community Corrections probationers who completed supervision in FY04.

3. National Center for State Courts Key Questions for the Baseline Study What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04? Did the probationers being supervised in FY04 by the 20 sites that would become the EBP sites differ demographically from the probationers supervised in the non-EBP sites in a statistically meaningful way? What was the average length of supervision in FY04? By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 completers? What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?

4. National Center for State Courts Key Questions for the Baseline Study What services were local probationers ordered to complete in FY04? What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why? What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re- arrested or received a new conviction while under supervision? What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re- arrested or received a new conviction post-program three years from exit date?

5. National Center for State Courts Key Questions for the Baseline Study What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers after exiting in FY04? What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would complete local probation supervision successfully in FY04? What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would be convicted of a new crime post-program in FY04?

6. National Center for State Courts Sample Size Approximately 33,655 probationers in the total sample (# of defendants whose cases were closed in FY04) For the recidivism analysis a smaller group was studied 4,705 probationers

7. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 1 What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04?

8. National Center for State Courts Age of FY04 Case Closures Average age = 30 years old N = 29,072

9. National Center for State Courts Race of FY04 Case Closures N = 33,655

10. National Center for State Courts Marital Status of FY04 Case Closures N = 33,555

11. National Center for State Courts Last Grade Completed – FY04 Case Closures N = 33,518

12. National Center for State Courts Prior Convictions – FY04 Case Closures

13. National Center for State Courts Average # of Prior Convictions - FY04 Case Closures

14. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 2 Did probationers being supervised in FY04 by what would become the 20 EBP sites differ demographically from probationers being supervised by the non-EBP sites?

15. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question #2 Quality Evidence-Based Practice Sites Non-EBP Sites Difference (EBP – Non-EBP) Female (%) 26.17%26.90%-0.73% Asian (%) 0.89%0.56%0.33% Black (%) 39.15%43.99%-4.84% Hispanic (%) 3.78%3.41%0.37% Native American (%) 0.10%0.07%0.02% White (%) 55.03%50.71%4.32% Race and Ethnicity Unknown/Other (%) 1.06%1.26%-0.20% Age (Average) 29.3630.41-1.05 There were no statistically significant differences in the demographics between the EBP sites and the non-EBP sites in the FY04 sample.

16. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 3 What was the average length of supervision for probationers who completed supervision in FY04?

17. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 3 Average length of supervision for the entire sample: 8.6 months Average length of supervision for a successful probationer: 8.2 months Average length of supervision for an unsuccessful probationer: 9.4 months

18. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 4 By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 probation completers?

19. National Center for State Courts Placement Type by Offense Level N = 28,969 N = 2,184

20. National Center for State Courts Placement Offenses - Misdemeanors N = 8,327N = 5,121N = 7,564N =1,707 N = 2,878 N = 3,263N =110

21. National Center for State Courts Placement Offenses - Felonies N = 352 N = 919 N = 95 N = 225N = 4N = 10

22. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 5 What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?

23. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 5 Average number of office contacts for successful completers: 8.9 contacts Average number of office contacts for unsuccessful completers: 10.6 contacts NOTE: Data quality was questionable with some sites not documenting this information in FY04.

24. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 6 What services were probationers ordered to complete in FY04?

25. National Center for State Courts Court-Ordered Conditions in FY04

26. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 7 What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why?

27. National Center for State Courts Case Closure by Type

28. National Center for State Courts Reason for Unsuccessful Closures

29. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 8 What percentage of FY04 probationer completers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction while under supervision (by program completion type)?

30. National Center for State Courts Re-Arrest and New Convictions In- Program

31. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 9 What percentage of probationers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction post-program three years from exit (by program completion type?

32. National Center for State Courts Re-Arrests and New Convictions Post-Exit Differences between the successful and unsuccessful completers all measures are significant at..001 level. Arrest

33. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 10 What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers post-program in FY04?

34. National Center for State Courts Statewide Total Estimated Offense Types of New Convictions Within 3 Years

35. National Center for State Courts Number of New Offenses within 3 Years Average of 2.18 misdemeanor arrests and 1.81 convictions within three years among all recidivists Average of 1.76 felony arrests and.73 felony convictions within three years among all recidivists

36. National Center for State Courts Recidivism Rates by Placement Charge

37. National Center for State Courts Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Person Offenders

38. National Center for State Courts Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Property Offenders

39. National Center for State Courts Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Drug Offenders

40. National Center for State Courts Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Public Order Offenders

41. National Center for State Courts Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Technical Offenders

42. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 11 What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would successfully complete supervision in FY04?

43. National Center for State Courts Methodology Multivariate analyses were conducted to provide valid answers to Baseline Questions 11 and 12. Because Type of Completion and Recidivism are complex phenomenon, any number of factors could explain variation in these two variables (e.g., age, race, sex). To determine each of these factors unique contribution to explaining such variation, it is necessary to simultaneously control for the influence of all the other explanatory factors. Multivariate analysis is the vehicle to ascertain each explanatory factors unique contribution to explaining variation in each of the two variables, controlling for the influence of all the other explanatory variables.

44. National Center for State Courts Predictors of successful completion African Americans were 31% less likely to successfully complete than Caucasians. Probationers placed on a felony-level charge are 53% less likely to successfully complete than those placed on a misdemeanor charge. Probationers with a prior misdemeanor conviction at placement are 42% less likely to successfully complete than those with none. Probationers with a prior felony conviction at placement are 38% less likely to successfully complete than those with none. Every year of education beyond the average increases the odds of successfully completing by 6%. Only includes statistically significant predictors

45. National Center for State Courts Baseline Question 12 What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would reoffend (as measured by a new conviction within three years) post-program in FY04?

46. National Center for State Courts Predictors of Recidivism Women are 35% less likely to have a new conviction in three years then men. African Americans are 43% more likely to have a new conviction than Caucasians. Probationers with prior misdemeanor convictions at placement are 117% more likely to have a new conviction than those without prior misdemeanor convictions. Probations with a prior felony conviction at placement are 39% more likely to have a new conviction than probationers without a prior felony conviction. Probationers who successfully complete probation are 47% less likely to have a new conviction.

47. National Center for State Courts Other Items of Note – not for the report! 18 programs in FY04 showed a statistical difference in the recidivism rates of probationers who successfully completed versus unsuccessful completers.

48. National Center for State Courts Next Steps Each program will receive program-specific data in the next two weeks.

49. National Center for State Courts Next Steps Your site specific data will include: Age, race, gender, marital status and educational breakdown of your sample Length of supervision and # of office visits for your sample Breakdown of closure type for your sample Reason for unsuccessful closures in your sample Reconviction rates for your sample

50. National Center for State Courts Next Steps A note about your recidivism rates: Percent of Probationers Re-Convicted within Three Years of Program By Site and Statewide Estimate Site Re-Convicted (%) XXXXXX16.0*** Statewide Average21 Difference significant at: *** p <.001; ** p <.01; * p <.05 NOTE: If there is a *, ** or *** next to your site, your site performed statistically better or worse than the state average. If there is no *, ** or *** next to your site, your site performed no differently (statistically) than the state average.