1. Tanker shipping key driving forces
Maritime Insight - Gothenburg October
Erik Ranheim
Senior Manager Research & Projects INTERTANKO

2. The state of the industry The main driving force Who loses Basics
Overview
The state of the industry
The main driving force
Who loses
Basics
Europe
Long term

3. The state of the industry

4. Estimated accumulated losses VLCCs + Suezmaxes + Aframaxes
$ billion

5. Average freight rates 1 -10 years backwards
$ / day

6. The main driving force

7. Oil price and freight rates 1970-2013
$ per barrel

8. Assuming: $10,000 per day $600 per tonne bunkers
Aframax voyage (Mina Al Ahmadi - Singapore )- speed, T/C result and CO2 emission
$/day
Tonnes emission
Assuming:
$10,000 per day
$600 per tonne bunkers
Knots

9. Who loses

10. Tanker ownership, period and spot market

11. Basics

12. Population growth Billion Years gap for each bn increase in population
Years gap for each bn increase in population

13. 10 largest oil consumers 2014
mbd
Litres per capita per year

14. Net oil import US and China as % of consumption

15. Tanker indices %

16. Economic, oil market and seaborne trade growth%

17. Europe

18. <1% of oil reserves (ex. FSU 7.5%) 14% of world oil consumption
Europe
Population m ex. FSU
<1% of oil reserves (ex. FSU 7.5%)
14% of world oil consumption
4% of world oil production
25% of crude oil import
18% of oil product import
1% of crude oil export
11% of oil product export
14% of world refinery capacity
Crude oil
import

19. Middle East oil Export 1990/2012

20. US and N Sea Crude Oil Production
mbd

21. Major oil import areas
mbd

22. Oil trade to Europe
mbd

23. Global Crude Distillation Capacity

24. Aframax spot discharge 2013

25. Suezmax spot discharge 2013

26. Long term

27. US. crude oil production by source, 1990-2040 mbd

28. Total energy Transportation By Continent
Long term - mtoe
Total energy Transportation By Continent
Source: BP

29. Crises create changes – we are in the middle of a major tanker crises
End thoughts
Crises create changes – we are in the middle of a major tanker crises
High oil/bunker prices a main game changer for the industry
Tanker fleet increasing
Europe mature
Tanker safety is strong, but oil transportation is inherently a high risk industry
In the long run, the market gets the service it pays for

30. Tanker accidents – all sizes all segments
Number
’00 ts pollution

31. Chain of responsibility/sustainability
A sustainable tanker industry
A sustainable tanker industry provides a high quality safe and environmental friendly transportation service regardless of market cycles  
Sustainability assumes balanced terms and conditions and a fair risk sharing among the main stakeholders
Shipowner
Charterer
Shipbuilder
Class
Chain of responsibility/sustainability
Insurer
Flag
Port
Broker