1. Thomas Malthus
Overpopulation?

2. Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Malthus on overpopulation
Population growth and food supply
Malthus’ critics
Declining birth rates
Malthus theory and reality
Reasons for declining birth rates

3. Thomas Malthus
An “Essay on the Principle of Population” and a book On Population
England entering Stage 2 prompted thoughts
Overpopulation
Said population grows exponentially where as food production grows linearly

4. Neo-Malthusians
Poor countries have rapid population growth b/c of transfer of medical technology without transfer of wealth
Population growth outpaces economic development, the growing population absorbs the economic growth
Robert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon—millions of people engaged in a search for food and resources (clean air, water, suitable farmland, and fuel)

5. Critics—have criticized both population growth and food production sides of Malthus’s theory
Possibilism—we can expand food supply and other resources
New technology, courses of action will expand resources, and substitute plentiful resources for scarce
Ester Boserup, Simon Kuznets—criticize population growth as problem

6. More people—more brains
Economy better off—more customers and ideas
Food production has exceeded Malthus’s prediction thanks to the Green Revolution

7. Marxist theorist—Friederich Engles
Artifact of Capitalism—people don’t have enough food because they don’t control the production and distribution and aren’t paid enough to purchase it
There are enough resources, they are just not distributed equally

8. Cultural Reasons for Growth
Some African countries view more people as power
Increases number of men who can serve in military
They may feel the MDCs are pushing for less growth to prevent such large percentage of people in poorer areas
Value of men/low status of women
Many children sign of high status for women/virility of men

9. Food and Population, 1950–2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends
More food /Green Revolution
Lower population growth/ he didn’t foresee stage 3 & 4
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the second half of the twentieth century.

10. Contraceptives Economic development is ultimate goal
Contraceptives provide short-term solution
Some religions discourage use
Hindus, Catholics, Muslims, fundamentalist Protestants

11. Use of Family Planning
Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

12. Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1981–2001
Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries between 1981 and 2001 (though the absolute number of births per year increased from 123 to 133 million).