1. Sustainable Heat for Buildings
Martien Visser, Energy Transition and Networks
Thursday, September 21th, Springtij, Terschelling

2. Since March 2017, I have solar panels
My energy bill in 2016: €160/month
Distribution costs electricity > commodity costs
Since March 2017, I have solar panels

3. LT heat & power Gas vs electricity LT-heat vs power 4x more volume
10x more capacity
Note: In the city of Groningen there hardly energy intensive industry and almost 100% of the buildings are heated by natural gas. Thus: natural gas demand = LT heat demand

4. Synchronicity; power versus LT-heat
Demand for low temperature heat is primarily due to ambient temperature and occurs synchronous
Typically, households have a connection of 3x25A electricity 16 kW
Planning electricity grids requires 1,2 kW (8%) per household
Typically, households have a connection of 2-3 m3/hr for gas 25 kW
Planning gas networks requires 15 kW (60%)
Significant usage of electricity for heating purposes will require adjustment of this planning criterion for electricity networks

5. Heat demand versus effective temperature
City of Groningen (data 2012)
Many other factors play a role, => uncertainty (normal distribution). How to deal with it? A different choice for other energy carriers?
Note: 900 MWh/h  15 kW/household. Thus, 60% of full end use capacity
December-15 Page

6. Lengthy cold winters Demand for LT-heat  Severity of a winter
Measured in (summed) heating-degree-days
HD = max (0, 17-Teff) (Teff = Tamb – 2/3 U (in m/s)
Planning for a 1:20 cold winter is currently associated with gas (energy) in storage.
Could we anticipate on winter climate change and extrapolate?
Who bears the risk?

7. LT Heating: The energy system
Gas is produced in base-load with little overcapacity
Demand variations are covered by gas storages
Gas storages have typically a volume of 15-20% of the annual gas demand
Also to cope with exceptional weather, technical failures (and geopolitics)
Power production follows demand and varies significantly (non base-load)
Typically, significant overcapacity is required: 50-70% above base-load.
The fuel (gas or coal) may be stored
This fundamental difference is due to economics; gas storage is typically 1000x cheaper (per unit of energy) than electricity storage.
Exceptional weather, technical failures (and geopolitics) needs consideration

8. Saving energy at the buildings
Saving energy is usually beneficial; Saving significant amounts of energy for existing buildings may be challenging
Since 1990, gas demand per NL household has been reduced by 35%, but total consumption of gas has remained the same
The costs energy saving (per ton CO2 reduction) increase if more is required
The optimal level of insulation requires economic optimization and varies: with heat networks, green gas, all-electric.
Will this be socially acceptable?
Make energy saving fun!

9. Energy costs and consumer behaviour
Price elasticity of energy by households is very low

10. Many sustainable alternatives
Various technologies to replace natural gas
Heat Networks
waste energy, biomass, geothermal energy
All electric with heat pumps and strict isolation
Green gas with/without (hybrid) heat pumps
Hydrogen (under development, green/blue)
Wood stoves or pellet burners
Combinations of these techniques
Each technique has advantages - and disadvantages –
and could result in near-zero CO2
Differences occur in: production, networks, storage, insulation, costs, risks …
… and vary for customers, producers, suppliers, networks, companies, etc..

11. How to make a region or city CO2-free?
Project Development is required
Which alternative is most attractive? Where?
What is the optimal sequence?
How to minimize the costs while delivering what is needed
Organize (detailed) engineering, permitting and tendering
Realize fairness and societal acceptance?
The business case & how to distribute the costs and risks
Steering the stakeholder process
Build the new infrastructure
Operate & Trouble shooting
Leiden
Assen

12. A typical investment process may take 5-7 yrs; scale-up during the process
Stakeholder/permitting processes
Long lead items & tendering
-50/+50%
-40/+40%
-30/+30%
Accuracy of cost estimate
-20/+20%
Concept selection
Bottleneck identification
Feasibility studies
Engineering
Execution
-10/+10%
6-12 months
3-9 months
6-12 months
24-36 months
Source: Gasunie

13. How to organize the LT transition work?
How to get the LT energy transition realized within a certain time frame?
Who should (can) be in control?
Who should ultimately decide and takes the responsibility?
Who should pay and bear the risks?
Who should do the work?
Is national control required?
Stakeholders: consumers, house/building owners, network companies, energy suppliers, energy producers, local governments, regulators, equipment/building companies, permitting authorities, NGOs, ….