1. The Global Future of the HVAC&R Industry Dick Hayter Kansas State University Manhattan, KS

2. A Perspective on the Future No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is but the world as it will be. Issac Asimov

3. The Challenges of Our Time A world population of 6B, increasing to perhaps 10B by 2050 Rising expectations of developing countries Escalating demand on (finite) resources Political and economic instability Preservation of environment Jim Schultz

4. What might the future bring? Building envelopes that serve a dual role as the building electrical power source Power sources within buildings (micro turbines, fuel cells) Refrigerant free, energy efficient refrigeration equipment

5. Overview Learning from the Past The HVAC&R Market Influences on HVAC&R Applications Looking Ahead Preparing for the Future

6. Learning from the Past As recently as the last century, central indoor climate control was only available to a limited privileged few.

7. Learning from the Past-Cont. In the past, buildings had operable windows with awnings for shade, high ceilings and portable fans. Buildings were designed for optimum natural cooling.

8. Learning from the Past-Cont. Raffles Hotel, Singapore

9. Learning from the Past-Cont.

10. Since 1940 eight of the 10 fastest growing cities in the U.S. are in the southern part of the country.

11. Learning from the Past-Cont. In excess of 56% of the entire US housing stock has central air-conditioning and 86% of all newly constructed homes have central air-conditioning. ARI

12. The HVAC Market Shipments of central air conditioners and heat pumps are headed for a record year.... For the first time, our industry will exceed seven million factory shipments. Dave Pannier ARI Chair November 2004

13. The HVAC Market-Continued ARI

14. The HVAC Market-Continued ARI

15. The HVAC Market-Continued As of January 1, 2003, about 51% of CFC chillers in US had been replaced or converted. (55% anticipated by end of 2003). 38,300 CFC chillers still in operation. New, non-CFC chillers use 1/3 less energy than those 20 years ago. Return on investment of replacement - 20% to 35% due to energy savings, etc. ARI & EPA

16. The HVAC Market-Continued 7 billion-kilowatt hours/year have been saved because replacement chillers are more efficient. This equates to the energy consumed by 740,000 households. Because of less energy use, the production of CO 2 has been reduced by 4 million tons/year. ARI

17. The HVAC Market-Continued Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than 65,000 BTUH) Courtesy of ARI

18. Influences on HVAC&R Applications The solutions to infrastructure problems are probably 5% technical and 95% social, political, environmental and economic. Civil Infrastructure Systems Task Force National Science Foundation 1993

19. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 1.Energy 2.Environment 3.Human Factors 4.Political 5.Societal 6.Communication

20. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 1. Energy The greatest challenge to the human race in the 21 st century will be to maintain and advance our quality of life as we face a dwindling reserve of energy resources. Bill Coad, Past President ASHRAE

21. Influences on HVAC&R Applications U.S. Residential & Commercial Sectors use 34 quads (34 X 10 15 Btus) or 35% of the nations total energy consumption Comfort cooling and refrigeration accounts for 48% of the energy used.

22. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 2. Environment The protection of the environment is more than an economic issue – it is an ethical issue. Don Colliver, Past President ASHRAE

23. Influences on HVAC&R Applications Two environmental factors have significantly affected the building industry Ozone depletion Climate change

24. Influences on HVAC&R Applications The energy consumed by the residential and commercial sectors results in the production of 523 million metric tons of carbon.

25. Influences on HVAC&R Applications If every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of 0.48 kW/Ton vs. 0.56, annual power plant emissions would be reduced by: Nearly 17 billion pounds of CO 2. Over 64 billion grams of SO 2 Over 27 billion grams of No x Jim Wolf, ASHRAE Past President

26. Influences on HVAC&R Applications Which is equivalent to: Removing over 2 million cars from the road. Planting nearly 500 million trees each year.

27. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 3. Human Factors Comparative annual costs for an office building in the U.S. Energy: 2-4 $/ft 2 /year Operating: 2-4 $/ft 2 /year Own/rent: 10-40 $/ft 2 /year

28. Influences on HVAC&R Applications Comparative annual costs for an office building in the U.S. Energy: 2-4 $/ft 2 /year Operating: 2-4 $/ft 2 /year Own/rent: 10-40 $/ft 2 /year Occupant: 200-400 $/ft 2 /year

29. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 4. Political Decisions affecting design and selection of equipment must be based on solid technical principles to be of long term benefit to a global society. Standards for system design and equipment performance should be uniform to promote good engineering decisions (locally AND globally).

30. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 5. Societal Buildings must be designed and operated for the long term sustainability of our natural resources. Buildings must be safe! Free of harmful contaminants Structurally sound Vulnerability to terrorism, minimized

31. Influences on HVAC&R Applications 6. Communication The internet has a profound effect on our profession. Instantaneous global communication of data, designs and ideas. Instant access to new technology. Unlimited opportunity for expanded knowledge through education.

32. Influences on HVAC&R Applications www.ashrae.org www.ari.org

33. Influences on HVAC&R Applications Warning Is the information valid?

34. Looking Ahead 1.Equipment & Systems 2.Refrigerants 3.Controllers 4.Human Factors 5.Specialty Environments 6.Design Teaming

35. Looking Ahead 1. Equipment & Systems Improved compressor capacity modulation Cost effective expansion energy recovery systems Reliable oil-less drives to eliminate system lubricants Improved air to refrigerant heat exchanger performance Jim Schultz

36. Looking Ahead Equipment and Systems Radiant Cooling Natural and Displacement Ventilation (?) Refrigerant-free cooling Thermoelectric Cooling Vortex Cooling Magnetic Cooling Thermo-Acoustic Cooling

37. Looking Ahead 2. Refrigerants Expanded use of natural refrigerants (CO 2, H 2 0, NH 3 ) Expanded use of flammable refrigerants (propane, butane) Trade-offs include low COP (CO 2 ), High specific volume (H 2 0), Safety (NH 3, flammables)

38. Looking Ahead Refrigerants Continued Improved and practical approach to zero refrigerant leakage Smaller refrigerant charge requirements Reduced energy requirements (improved thermodynamic properties) Jim Schultz

39. Looking Ahead 3. Controllers Building automation will migrate to equipment- controllers level Internet enabled (cyber security) Better response to part load Wireless Responsive to power quality anomalies Jim Schultz

40. Looking Ahead 4. Human Factors More sophisticated controllers will allow broader conditions and use of more variables to maintain thermal comfort (expanded use of comfort envelope, non-steady state control, radiant heating & cooling, etc.). Improved air-quality will improve comfort (and productivity). Acoustical controls at equipment and system levels will provide improved environments.

41. Looking Ahead 5. Specialty Environments Personalized environmental controls Hazmat Emergency Response Hot or chemically hazardous work environments Office Cubes Manufacturing Processes Food Animal Confinement Housing

42. Looking Ahead 6. Design Teaming Design/Build = here today Design process changes Narrower specialties Virtual design teams

43. Preparing for the Future Your value as an engineer is based on what you know and your ability to apply it. Standards (ASHRAE, ISO, CEN, IEC, NAFTA) Multinational Licensing Lifelong learning-Virtual Classrooms Research

44. Preparing for the Future As you engineer your future, ask yourself two questions - 1.What is your vision for your future? 2.How will you fulfill your vision?

45. Conclusion Vision without action is merely a dream and action without vision just passes the time, but vision with action can change the world. Joel Barker