1. Elevated CO 2 and Ozone: Causes & Consequences Bill Holmes University of Michigan School of Natural Resources & Environment

2. Presentation Outline Part I: Rising atmospheric CO 2 & tropospheric ozone –Sources & trends Part II: Impacts on plants & ecosystems –Research questions, approaches, and findings Part III: Activities –Calculate your carbon footprint –View ozone maps, action day alerts

3. The Greenhouse Effect

4. Greenhouse Gases

5. Major Sources of CO 2

6. Global Carbon Budget

7. Distribution of Emissions 1995 annual totals by region Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center 2003

8. Atmospheric CO 2 Record 370 ppm today 299 ppmv, highest in last 420,000 years

9. Seasonal Oscillations in Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration

10. Major Consequences I Rising temperatures –Increase in U.S. of 5-9 ºF by 2100 Extreme weather –More frequent heavy precipitation events –Some regions get drier Coastal and permafrost areas vulnerable –Sea level change –Storm surges –Sinking buildings and roads in Alaska

11. Major Consequences II Water quality impacts –Floods and droughts wreak havoc, especially in developing countries Public health concerns –Floods, water borne diseases –Heat stress, air pollution Agriculture & forestry impacts –CO 2 promotes productivity, but… –More droughts, fire, and pest damage

12. Major Consequences III Ecosystem changes –Climate will change faster than ecosystems can migrate or adapt –Changes in plant competition –Grasslands invade forests in southeast U.S –Change in disturbance regimes – more fire!

13. Tropospheric Ozone Record 20 40 60 1870 189019101930195019701990 80 0 O 3 Concentration (ppbv) 20 40 60 1870 189019101930195019701990 80 0 O 3 Concentration (ppbv) Redrawn from: Marenco et al. 1994. J. Geophy. Res. 99: 16,617-16,632 J. Geophy. Res. 99: 16,617-16,632

14. Good Ozone, Bad Ozone Too little there... CFCs and halons from air conditioners and refrigerators break down the protective ozone layer. Too much here... Vehicles, power plants and factories emit air pollution that forms ground-level ozone.

15. Sources of Ground-Level Ozone NOx, VOC + sunlight Ozone

16. Global Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone

17. Tropospheric Ozone Circulation

18. Effects of "Bad" Ozone Human Health –Coughing, throat irritation, lung damage –Worse when working or exercising outdoors The Environment –Damages vegetation and ecosystems –Increases susceptibility of trees to other stresses (pests, diseases, weather extremes) –Forest and crop losses

19. Part II: Impacts on Plants & Ecosystems Climate Change temperature air pollution carbon dioxide ozone Ecosystem Function plant growth nutrient cycling carbon sequestration ?

20. Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems Plant Productivity Microbial Community Composition & Function Substrate Availability Soil Nitrogen Availability Plant Litter Biochemistry

21. Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems Plant Productivity Microbial Community Composition & Function Substrate Availability Soil Nitrogen Availability Plant Litter Biochemistry Atmospheric N Deposition Atmospheric CO 2 & O 3

22. Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems Plant Productivity Microbial Community Composition & Function Substrate Availability Soil Nitrogen Availability Plant Litter Biochemistry Atmospheric N Deposition Atmospheric CO 2 & O 3 Temperature & Precipitation

23. Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) Experiments Open-air control of atmosphere conditions Fairly large scale Longer term than previous chamber experiments Major investment of research money Large teams of researchers

24. Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) Sites

25. Eastern U.S. FACE Sites Cedar Creek, MN Oak Ridge, TN Rhinelander, WI Durham, NC

26. Aspen FACE Experiment Rhinelander, WI

27. Experimental Design 4 treatments x 3 blocks = 12 rings Elevated CO 2 Elevated O 3 Elevated CO 2 + O 3 Ambient Control ppm CO 2 : ppb O 3 : 360 32 560 32 360 56 560 56

28. Aspen FACE Site Aspen- Maple Aspen- Birch Aspen

29. Global Geographic Distribution (white & stippled areas) Why Study Aspen & Birch?

30. Research Questions Will more or less CO 2 be sequestered by forest trees or in soil as CO 2 levels rise? Will elevated CO 2 alleviate other stresses (e.g. ozone, drought, low fertility)? What are the interactive effects of CO 2 and ozone?

31. CO 2 and Ozone Effects CO 2 effects: + photosynthesis + growth + water use efficiency O 3 effects: – photosynthesis – growth + leaf senescence

32. Cell-level Ozone Damage Large starch grains Normal aspen chloroplast Intact thylakoid membranes Ozone damaged chloroplast Disintegration of thylakoid membrane Membrane degradation material Small starch grains

33. CO 2 and O 3 Effects on Tree Growth 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Aspen Aspen-Birch Aspen-Maple Cumulative Net Primary Productivity g m -2 Stems & Branches Fine Roots Coarse Roots Foliage Control CO 2 O3O3 CO 2 + O 3 Control CO 2 O3O3 CO 2 + O 3 Control CO 2 O3O3 CO 2 + O 3 a c a a a a bb b a a ab

34. Research Findings I Tree growth increases under elevated CO 2 and decreases under O 3 Carbon sequestration under elevated CO 2 is overestimated in models which do not consider O 3 impacts O 3 reduces the protective coating of leaves and damages leaf tissues CO 2 reduces the damaging effects of O 3 and O 3 reverses growth stimulation by CO 2

35. Research Findings II Biogeochemical cycling of C and N increases under elevated CO 2, but effects differ among FACE sites O 3 counteracts most CO 2 -induced enhancements in ecosystem processes (soil respiration, N availability…) Plant response to CO 2 may be limited by N availability or co-exposure to O 3 or other factors. Elevated CO 2 delays normal autumn leaf senescence, predisposing some trees to winter dieback Aspen and birch insects and diseases increase under elevated CO 2 and O 3

36. Part III: Activities What you and your students can do… –Find ways to reduce CO 2 emissions –Learn about ozone action days Get on the web! –Calculate your carbon footprint –View ozone maps and action day alerts

37. Reduce CO 2 Emissions Reduce home heating & cooling energy use Reduce transportation energy use Increase energy efficiency Learn about implementation of Kyoto protocol guidelines in other countries (Canada, UK) Carbon offsets: reforestation and forest conservation programs

38. Avoid and Reduce Bad Ozone Check local air quality forecast –Limit physical exertion outdoors in afternoon and early evening Ozone action days –Conserve energy –Avoid driving or filling up fuel tank –Avoid using lawn mower or other two-stroke powered equipment

39. Ideas Find and compare different carbon calculators Build your own carbon calculator Look up unit conversions Ex: CCF to therms for natural gas Brainstorm ideas for CO 2 offsets Learn about Kyoto protocol