1. AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION: YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROWby
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre
for Social Applications of GIS
The University of Adelaide
Opening Address To Professional Development Seminar of Australian & New Zealand Association of Clerks at the Table, Parliament House, North Terrace, Adelaide
27 January 2011

2. Outline of Presentation
Introduction
The Global Context
Dynamics of Contemporary Australian Population Growth
- Growth
- Composition
- Distribution
The Population Outlook
Australia’s Population Dilemma
- The Baby Boomers and Ageing
- The Environmental Constraints
Policy – Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion

3. Exploding Myths About Population
Population is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual
Population is influenced by economic change but not a function of them
Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable
Population is amenable to policy intervention

4. Global Population Change
Current global population 6,810 million
Current annual increase rate 1.2% compared to 2.1% in 1969
Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in 2010 and 13.9 in 2050
Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, in 2010
Projected Global Population in 2050 – 9,149 million

5. “Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005

6. Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

7. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2008 and 2009; ABS 2010

9. Processes of Population Growth
Mortality
Fertility
Migration

10. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2008 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins
Males Females

11. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2008 Source: ABS
Year
Males
Females
21.2
23.7
23.0
28.3
2008
31.5
35.2

12. Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities Source: ABS 2005

13. Different Views on Future of Mortality
Increased longevity
Reduced longevity – impact of obesity

14. Percent of Australians Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004 Source: ABS 2008

15. Fertility
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2008 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

16. Total Fertility Rates in the United States and Selected More Developed Countries, 2009 Source: Population Reference Bureau 2009

17. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2010 Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

18. 2008-9: A Record Year of Immigration Source:
2008-9: A Record Year of Immigration Source: DIAC, 2009a and b; ABS, 2010

19. A Paradigm Shift in Australian Migration
Increase in non permanent migration
Increase in onshore migration
Increased focus on skill
Introduction of State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme
Increased settlement outside main gateways
Increased diversity

20. Australia: Temporary Migration, to Source: DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC 2009

21. Australia: Onshore Residence Visa Grants, Number and as a Percentage of Total Migration Program Visas Granted, to Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues

22. Australia: Unauthorised Arrivals, 1989-90 to 2010 Source:
Australia: Unauthorised Arrivals, to 2010 Source: DIMIA 2002, 2004 and 2005; DIAC 2007, 2009b and c; Bolt, 2010, 22

23. Permanent Additions by Eligibility Category Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2009

24. Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues; DIAC 2009

25. Australia: Settlement of Migrants Outside of Capital Cities, 1996 to 2009 Source: DIAC

26. Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947 to 2009 Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues and DIAC unpublished data

27. Key Changes in Population Composition
Ageing
Ethnic Diversity
Family/Household size and composition

28. Indigenous Population
455,027 persons in 2006
Growing at 2.1% per annum
TFR of 2.5 in
Life Expectancy at Birth males, 72.9 females
68.7% in Non-Metropolitan Areas

29. Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

30. Baby Boomers 2006 27.5% of Australian Population
41.8% of Australian Workforce

31. Wittert 2006

32. A Distinct Population Distribution
87% living in urban areas
64% living in capital cities
81% living 50 km from coast

33. Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004 and 2007

34. Australia: Changing Distribution of the Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921 to 2006 Source: Australian Censuses,

35. Australia: Population Change in Country Towns, Source: Australian Censuses of 2001 and 2006

36. Australia: Mobility Rates (Percent) by Age, , and Source: ABS One Percent Sample Files, 1986, 1996 and 2006 Censuses

37. Australia: Interstate Migration, 2001-2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census

38. Projecting the Population
Different to prediction
ABS does every 3 years
Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration

39. ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

40. Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: – 2021; 2031 (Series B) Source: ABS 2008 Projections

41. Australia: Growth of the Population by State, 2010 to 2030 Source: ABS 2008 Series B Projections

42. Australia’s Population Dilemma
On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because
- A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers
- Net increases in demand for labour
On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change

43. The Third Intergenerational Report (cont) Source: Swan 2010, p.xi

44. The Third Intergenerational Report (cont) Source: Swan 2010, p.xvi

45. Responding to the Implications of an Ageing Population Source: Swan 2010, p.xiii

46. Meeting the Challenges
Strategies for Baby Boomers
Increased Age at Retirement
Increased saving and preparation for retirement
Reduced obesity and improved health
Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups
Increased productivity
Increased workforce participation
Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors
Improved efficiency
Preventative health
Better models of funding and provision

47. Percent Participation
Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the Workforce, Source: ABS Labour Force Surveys
Percent Participation
May 1970
June 1999
February 2010
Age Group
Males
Females
55-59
91.5
28.7
72.9
44.1
79.4
64.4
60-64
79.2
14.9
46.9
17.6
61.7
41.8
65+
23.2
3.6
9.7
3.2
14.8
6.4

48. Addressing Ageing
There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing
Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential
To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch”
Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now

49. Environmental Constraints on Population
Long recognised
Mismatch between water and population
Exacerbated by climate change

50. The Mismatch Between Water and Population (Nix 1988, 72)
Far North
Australia
(%)
Southern
Population 2 82
Potentially Arable Land 4 65
Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27

51. By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the most heavily populated regions of south western and south eastern Australia surface waters are committed to a high degree and the consequences of climate change are potentially most serious Pittock and Nix 1986

52. Climate Change Impacts on Population Distribution in Australia (Canas 2006)
Direct
Sea level changes
Reduced rainfall and increased evaporation
Higher temperatures
Severe weather events
Bushfires
Indirect
Health related problems
Ecosystems
Tourism

53. Climate Change Impact Hotspots Source: Climate Action Network 2006

54. Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years) Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010

55. Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

56. Responses To The Water Dilemma
Change level and pattern of Consumption of water
Search for, and develop, “new” water supplies
Relocate Population so the distribution more closely matches that of water resources
Direct new investment to more environmentally favourable areas

57. Climate Change and Future Migration within Australia
Unlikely to create massive shifts in population distribution
However predicted growth opens the opportunity to locate differently to the past
Will influence where future growth will occur
Some agriculture, especially irrigation agriculture will move
Water will be more influential as a location factor in human settlement

58. Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System
Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority
However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible

59. Issues to be Considered
Several of fastest developing sectors of the economy have a strong non-metropolitan location (mining and tourism)
There is already net outmigration of the Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney

60. Issues to be Considered (cont)
Increased international migration to non-metropolitan areas
Environmental constraints of southeastern Australia

61. Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal and International Migration, 1971 to 2006 Source: NSW Department of Planning

62. What is Needed?
Currently there is an unproductive debate between “pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies
There must be trade offs and compromises which facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines
Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider
(a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated aspirational population targets?
(b) Where is that growth best located?

63. Conclusion (1)
Australia is demographically better placed than most OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic and environmental changes over the next two decades
However Australia lacks a population policy which is informed not only by economic imperatives but also environmental and social inclusion concerns
The last National Inquiry into Australia’s population was in 1971 and the time is appropriate for an informed multidisciplinary investigation into Australia’s future population

64. Conclusion (2)
This investigation should engage the best science but at the same time have a broad engagement with the views of the whole community
There is a large potential to be bipartisan in population policy
Crucial importance of developing a vision of the population of the future which is sustainable
Ministry of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Strategy on Population Months Period to Receive Submissions