1. ITT and SKE Recruitment Mark Crowley mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk
April 2018

2. Objectives
Review recent TSM targets and relevant ITT recruitment
Consider patterns in recruitment (incl rejection rates)
Findings with Subject Knowledge Enhancement (SKE) usage

3. 49% 37% 9% 43% ITT target Teacher Supply Model TSM 2017-18
Current stock
of teachers and their wastage rates
Teaching hours per subject and DfE policies (EBacc)
Growth of pupil population and additional teachers needed
Net growth by comparing entrants versus leavers.
Success of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools
Model expects 50% of entrants will be NQTs
PG Routes into Physics assumed to be
HEI SD
SCITT
49%
37% 9%
43%
79%
76%
81%
89%
ITT target
Completion and Employment

4. PG Attrition rates TSM 2017-18
Historic completion and employment rates are applied to the NQT need in order back- calculate the ITT target:
Subject
Target
Attrition rates
NQTs
Entrants
86%
79%
78%
82%
81%
Biology
1188
1053
1055
803
678
671
1599
1349
1336
Chemistry
Physics
Completion and Employment
These are based on an average of four years up to when bursaries were significantly lower

5. Recruitment vs Targets
Biology
EBITT/SD
HEI/SCITT
HEI PG
HEI UG
School-led PG
Primary
26% (4615)
Secondary
All phases 1%
(200)
15%
(4815)
34% (5840)
47%
(7095)
40%
(12935)
40% (6965)
52%
(7815)
45%
(14780)
101%
96%
88%
84%
85%
115%
Target
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
School-Led
HEI
Number of trainees
fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference, organised by the free market thinktank Policy Exchang

6. Recruitment vs Targets
Chemistry
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EBITT/SD
HEI/SCITT
110%
132%
94%
117%
82%
98%
Target
Number of trainees

7. Recruitment vs Targets
Physics
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Target
97%
71%
70%
65%
68%
80%
EBITT/SD
HEI/SCITT
Number of trainees

8. Shortfall in census TSM 2017-18
Although the census shows a shortfall against target, the NQT need could still be met in theory:
NQTs
Subject
Target
1188
1053
1055
925
845
695
Census
Attrition rates
Likely
Model
86%
79%
78%
82%
81%
86%
79%
78%
82%
81%
Biology
630
585
440
803
678
671
Chemistry
Physics
Census numbers exceed NQT entrants before attrition considered

9. Expect a drop off with conditions not being met
Recruitment cycle
Placed+
Conditional
Generic
Expect a drop off with conditions not being met
1000
900
800
700
Conditional
600
Number of applicants
500
400
Holding offer
Placed
300
200
100
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
End of
cycle

10. Length of recruitment cycle
UCAS ITT
“Science”
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Number of applicants
HEI
School-led
(SD & SCITT)
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
End of cycle

11. UCAS cycle 2013-14 starting ITT in September 2014
Recruitment
Placed+
Conditional
Biology
1,200
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,400
UCAS cycle starting ITT in September 2014
Number of applicants
and ran over short recruitment period AND had unreliable data
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
EoC
Census

12. Chemistry Recruitment 2013-19 23rd April 18 16th April 17 20 15
Placed+
Conditional
Chemistry
1,200
Day 180
23rd April 18
16th April 17
Placed 20
Conditional Firm 15
24th April 16 50
390
320
520
1,000
800
Number of applicants
600
400
UCAS open dates were 27 Oct 2015, 18 Oct 2016 and 26 Oct 2017
200
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
EoC
Census

13. Physics Recruitment 2013-19 23rdApril 18 16th April 17 15 10
Placed+
Conditional
Physics
200
400
600
800
1,000
Day 180
23rdApril 18
16th April 17
Placed 15
Conditional Firm 10
24th April 16 30
300
240
345
Number of applicants
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
EoC
Census

14. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
UCAS  ITT
Biology
UCAS EoC: Placed + conditional
100
200
300
400
500
600
520+5
220 60 95
505
Number of applicants
230
115 90 75
Higher
Education
School Direct
(fee)
(sal)
SCITT

15. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
UCAS  ITT
Chemistry
500
445+10
235 45
100
450
430
400
350
300
Number of applicants
250
255
200
150
100
120 50 40 30
Higher
Education
School Direct
(fee)
(sal)
SCITT

16. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
UCAS  ITT
Physics
400
370+10
155 50 95
370
350
300
250
Number of applicants
200
150
165
100
105 50 55 20
Higher
Education
School Direct
(fee)
(sal)
SCITT

17. Prior UCAS vs Census ITT 2017-18 Subject Biology Chemistry Physics
Total
HEI
Conversion rate
96%
95%
Fall of 60
HEI
UCAS
Census
525
505
455
430
385
370
1,365
1,305
School-Led
Conversion rate
109%
108%
Rise of 100
School-Led
UCAS
Census
385
420
380
415
300
325
1,065
1,160

18. Response from ITTStatistics
From:
Sent: 09 April :02
To:
Subject: Less UCAS applicants than trainees in the ITT Census
On UCAS these are completed by applicants on an ongoing basis and the ITT Census is completed once by the provider of ITT. These two groups may have a different understanding of their course route or more likely, they may have switched courses and not informed UCAS.
Other factors could be subject mappings – the subjects in Census and UCAS are different... For example, there are courses in the UCAS data that are just advertised as ‘Science’ courses so we can’t assign a specific subject. These are reported in the UCAS data referenced as ‘No single subject assigned’.
Teachers Analytical Division.
Manchester, DFE
At the EoC, NSSA account for only 55 HEI & 40 School-Led applicants across all subjects within UCAS UTT!
This questions (again) how reliable UCAS data are and caution when making any conclusion/decision based on it

19. Recognising potential – rejection rates
UCAS  ITT
Can make a rough and ready estimate of rejection rate from UCAS data knowing that a total of 46,000 applicants made 124,800 applications (average 2.7 each)
Report B: UCAS Teacher Training End of Cycle 2016
Successful Applicants*
Applications
Subject
Placed
Conditional
Holding offer
Biology
1,210 20 10
Chemistry
960
Physics
800
Other
4,120
3,080
2,760
All Applicants
~1,980
~1,500
~1,320
Offer rate*
~63%
~65%
~62%
All states
5,360
4,050
3,590
1,240
970
830
Divide by 2.7 to give approx. applicants
*does not account for withdrawals/declined offers

20. Recognising potential – rejection rates
UCAS  ITT
Can make a rough and ready estimate of rejection rate from UCAS data knowing that a total of 46,200 applicants made 125,200 applications (average 2.7 each)
Report B: UCAS Teacher Training End of Cycle 2017
Successful Applicants
Applications
Subject
Placed
Conditional
Holding offer
Biology
1,210 20 10
Chemistry
960
Physics
800
All Applicants
~1,560
~1,290
~1,080
All states
4,220
3,470
2,920
Offer rate*
~59%
~64%
~63%
920
830
680
*does not account for withdrawals/declined offers

21. Allocations Undergraduate routes Subject Biology* Chemistry Physics**
Maths
~14
~33
~31
~90 22 51 70
275 45 51
183
304 15 27 84
258
*Bio & General Science **includes Physics with Maths

22. Census Undergraduate routes Subject Biology* Chemistry Physics**
All subj 10 15 23
328 -
320 -
243 5 10
200
*Bio & General Science **includes Physics with Maths

23. Subject Knowledge Enhancement
April 2018

24. SKE numbers Freedom of Information request Vague “Provider Led”

25. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
Biology 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
620
505
SKE funding for >325
35% of 925 trainees
36%
39%
13% 3%
230
115 90 75
Higher
Education
SCITT
Provider
Led
School Direct
(Fee)
School Direct
(Sal)

26. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
Chemistry 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
550
430
SKE funding for >340
40% of 845 trainees
45%
26%
15%
50%
255
120 40 30
Higher
Education
SCITT
Provider
Led
School Direct
(Fee)
School Direct
(Sal)

27. UCAS End of Cycle & ITT Census
Physics 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
475
370
SKE funding for >340
49% of 695 trainees
48%
47% 9%
150%
165
105 55 20
Higher
Education
SCITT
Provider
Led
School Direct
(Fee)
School Direct
(Sal)

28. SKE Physics AY SKE Physics 2014-15 75 2015-16 59 2016-17 ~30 2014-17
164
Teach First have enrolled biologists and chemists on to SKE Physics courses

29. Response from NCTL
From: SKE, TA
Sent: 13 April :36
To: Crowley, Mark
Subject: RE: SKE subject specialisms - issues with TeachFirst nunbers
TeachFirst can offer applicants a Science ITT course rather than Chemistry, Biology or Physics. The SKE course… may not be in the specific science subject that they wish to teach, as they are intending to go onto a Science ITT course. But the SKE course subject will be a component of the ITT course, and therefore a part of the intended ITT specialism.
These TF trainees are categorised by the science specialism they have been allocated before they go into Schools in September. The science specialism on the census may differ from the SKE science subject taken.
If a Biologist fails to complete SKE in Physics, do this mean they have not met the condition of their TF Biology offer?

30. SKE Funding manual SKE Programme Cost Funding Eligibility
To be eligible for SKE programme funding, a participant must have accepted a conditional offer of a place on any eligible ITT course via UCAS, or, had the need for SKE identified as part of their application to Teach First. The completion of a SKE course must be a specific condition of the conditional ITT offer.

31. Response from TeachFirst
From: Sent: 23 March :57 To: Crowley, Mark Subject: Teach First and SKEs
Hi Mark,
All SKE providers working with Teach First seek approval with us before enrolling participants. The SKE is never made a condition of the TF offer, although all incoming participants must undertake the CKA. It is a recommendation based on their subject knowledge prior to starting the LDP.
National Office & London Local Area Office
6 Mitre Passage, London, SE10 0ER

32. But there is some good news!!!
SCHEME
GRADUATE TEACHING
Graduate Teaching Internship Scheme
TRYTEACHING
The Graduate Teaching Scheme’s ITT recruitment service can help any ITT provider that wants to recruit more trainees on to their provision in 18/19... If you have limited marketing resource and you tend to struggle to get the numbers you would like, then we can support you to recruit more trainees.
This is a zero risk service as we only charge on successful recruitment. Our fees are as follows (per each recruited trainee):
Shortage Secondary and Primary Maths – £495
Other secondary and Primary – £395

33. Any questions?
Mark Crowley Senior Lecturer in Science Education Nottingham Trent University +(44)
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