1. Socio-Economic Tool to assess relevance of nickel metal and its value chains in Europe
Mark Mistry
Nickel Institute
NeRSAP 7 Meeting
Bilbao
12th & 13th February 2018

2. Our challenge
Nickel: potential impacts on value chain not seen as uses are not visible

3. Consequences
Proposals by decision makers do often not consider the potential adverse impacts for parties involved
Industry
SMEs
Civil society
Authorities
R&D
We ourselves might not understand all consequences
Our value chain ignores relevance of issues (far) upstream in the value chain

4. NI activities Development of Nickel Metal SEA Tool
Assess nickel value chains in Europe from mining to recycling
Combine statistics from public sources with market data & company reporting
Follow agreed modeling approaches (e.g. EC and OECD guidance)
Show main socio-economic parameters
Provision of a dynamic tool that allows to conduct scenarios

5. SEA Tool requirements Reliable and robust tool
Transparent and based on official data
Use existing approaches used by authorities or accepted in science
Dynamic model that allows to develop different scenarios
Possibility to update
Blueprint for other commodities

6. Socio-Economic Tool: Partners
Contracted partners
Roskill Pariser: market analyst with strong focus on Ni an stainless steel
REACH Law: broad experience with socio-economic modelling from e.g. authorization cases
Combination of two partners with expertise in market data and modeling

7. Data requirements Market data Exploration, mining, smelting, refining
First use
End use
End of life
Statistics
EUROSTAT data on production and associated parameters
Sources
EUROSTAT
Company reports
National Statistics
Commercial databases
Various market data reports
Yale Stocks and Flows

8. Resulting data Technical dimension Nickel [t] from mining to recycling
Economic dimension
Value Added, output [€]
Investments into R&D [€]
Social dimension
Employment
SMEs
Geographic dimension
relevance of certain parts of nickel value chain in certain countries and regions

9. Technology dimension: The Nickel Value Chain
Reference year: 2014
Data from Roskill Pariser (Nickel End use report)

10. Economic Dimension: Modeling First & End Uses
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
C20
Manufacture of other chemical products
C205
Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c
C2059
Manufacture of basic metals
C24
Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys
C241
Manufacture of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles and related fittings, of steel
C242
Manufacture of other products of first processing of steel
C243
Manufacture of basic precious and other non-ferrous metals
C244
Copper Production
C2444
Other non-ferrous metal production
C2445
Casting of metals
C245
Casting of iron
C2451
Casting of steel
C2452
Casting of other non-ferrous metals
C2454
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
C25
Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; powder metallurgy
C255
C2550
Treatment and coating of metals; machining
C256
Treatment and coating of metals
C2561
Manufacture of electrical equipment
C27
Manufacture of batteries and accumulators
C272
C2720
EUROSTAT
Pros: publicly available data which can be reproduced
Cons: data disaggregation is sometimes limited
Approach
Identify relevant NACE 4 Codes for nickel first uses
Align NACE 4 Codes with First use of nickel

11. Economic & Social Dimension: Nickel Allocation Factor
Approach taken:
Nickel value in a sector / Total value added of sector
Example:
Nickel value is 10% of Sector X
Allocation Factor: 10%
Pros/ Cons:
Easy to calculate & explain
Underestimate criticality?
Overestimate impacts?
Total
Value Added Sector X
10%
Nickel value in sector X

12. Economic & Social Dimension: Direct and indirect impacts
Direct & indirect impacts:
Approach based on widely accepted concept
Value chain has positive indirect impacts on other economic activities & employment
EUROSTAT provides “multipliers”
Specific for each NACE 4 sector
Publicly available
Application of multipliers to SEA modeling

13. Economic & Social Dimension: Direct and indirect impacts
Multipliers:
Applied to all investigated parameters (jobs, value added, output)
Factor ranges between <2 (e.g. furniture) and >9 (building and construction)
EU input output model

14. End of life End of life data Difficult to get access to data
Data from Yale University on nickel stocks & flows and recycling
Data used to assess tonnages entering end of life management
Nickel cycle, Germany
All values Gg/a Ni
Reck et al How China's decade revolutionized nickel and stainless steel markets (working title). in preparation.

15. Outcome of modeling: EU socio-economic data

16. Outcome of modeling: EU socio-economic data

17. European Nickel Metal value chain
Using the tool for modeling:
the example of Cobalt metal classification:
Cobalt metal classification proposal for all CMR endpoints
SCL of 0.01%
All routes of exposure (oral, dermal, inhalation)
Co in Ni as impurity >0.01%
Nickel and other metals / alloys get same classification

18. Impact on Ni supply chain and end uses
Mining
1.200 jobs
at risk
Refining
5.000 jobs
at risk
Nickel First Use
jobs
at risk
Nickel End Use
jobs
at risk

19. Future work Nickel Allocation Factor
Different alternative approaches on the table which we want to apply in update of the model
Criticality of raw material in a sector to be taken into consideration
EUROSTAT “multipliers”
Replace EU multipliers by national multipliers
Indirect impacts
For time being we only considered Type 1 impacts related to production
Ongoing work to also assesses Type 2 impacts on consumption

20. Socio-Economic Tool to assess relevance of nickel metal and its value chains in Europe