1. Current Marketing Issues Seminar
BA635 Dr. Ed Forrest

2. Keynes- a letter to my granddaughter

3. John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930)* “We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress which characterized the nineteenth century is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down …
…that a decline in prosperity is more likely than an improvement in the decade which lies ahead of us. I believe that this is a wildly mistaken interpretation of what is happening to us.
We are suffering, not from the rheumatics of old age, but from the growing-pains of over-rapid changes, from the painfulness of readjustment between one economic period and another.
The increase of technical efficiency has been taking place faster than we can deal with… it”

4. the Technium the global, massively interconnected system of technology vibrating around us,” extending “beyond shiny hardware to include culture, art, social institutions and intellectual creations of all types.”
Not specific technologies
but high-level processes & actions
we have been performing for centuries...
Only now, most of these processes poised to be taken over by artificial intelligence & robots.
Becoming:
Cognifying:
Flowing:
Screening:
Accessing:
Sharing:
Filtering:
Remixing:
Interacting:
Tracking:
Questioning:
Beginning:

5. 1) Becoming Being in perpetual beta
Everyone is constantly on a learning curve. You won’t get time to master something and then upgrade.
PROTOPIAN WELTENSCHAUNG (not utopia or dystopia)
Constant state of becoming– better .. New tech created to solve probs caused by old tech..
“Becoming”--innovation now happens so fast that we are in a constant state of becoming, never arrive. A seemingly simple concept but with a few minutes of thought turns out to be a pretty important concept for anyone continuing to innovate or use the latest platforms. .. we are in a constant state of “becoming”, there is still great change and opportunity to come

6. Things Becoming More: Immediate – instant access Personalized
Collaborative- Coordinated- Aggregated
Free & Ubiquitous- (Propelling the Zero-Margin Society:
The top ten music videos have been watched (for free) over 10 billion times.
Of course, it’s not just music that is being copied freely. It is text, pictures, video, games, entire websites, enterprise software, 3-D printer files.
In this new online world, anything that can be copied will be copied for free.
A universal law of economics says the moment something becomes free and ubiquitous, its position in the economic equation suddenly inverts

7. 2) Cognification: Adding artificial intelligence… to Anything … Changes Everything
Take X and add Ai
What electricity was to the industrial Revolution… Cognicity is to the emerging revolution
Cognification: refers to the application of massive feedback, big data collection and algorithms to facilitate Artificial Intelligence (AI) applies to Everything from health and science to marketing through consumer experience. This is perhaps the most important trend in the entire book. We are entering a generation where highly established thoughts, ideas and rules are going to be completely altered because we will have so much linked data at our disposal and when combined with leaps in analysis capability and intelligent questions we will see major breakthroughs in the next decade most certainly based on cognification

8. Centaurs & CoBots
"Our most important mechanical inventions are not machines that do what humans do better, but machines that can do things we can’t do at all.
Our most important thinking machines will not be machines that can think what we think faster, better, but those that think what we can’t think."

9. 3) Flowing: The constant flow of data across devices
Internet =1 giant copying (& Universal Real Time Distribution) Machine
The union of a zillion streams of information intermingling, flowing into each other.. & into the Ubiquitous Reservoir – called the cloud
FROM- Files & Pages on A PC…
TO endless Streams across TV’s, PC’s, Pads & SmartPhones…glasses, wearables & environmentals--ambient/embedded
Fixed copies don’t matter as much as flowing access.
Flowing – major disruption to business models such as music, video, apps, training – ongoing lower-cost access to content and products. This is perhaps the most complex trend to communicate in the book, but does have huge implications on how we learn, teach, consume and produce products as part of a “flow” process instead of lumpier produce/consume model

10. 4) Screening: Digital displays are everywhere
We already have 5B digital screens + adding ~4B/ year
Screen culture is a world of constant flux, of endless sound bites, quick cuts, and half-baked ideas. It is a flow of tweets, headlines, instagrams, casual texts, and floating first impressions.
Screening – concept that facts and entertainment we used to get from books now come from screens (blogs, podcasts, YouTube, streaming, etc…Pretty important stuff for all of you who have been resisting using video, audio and social in your marketing and products.

11. 6th Sense Technology
As portable screens become more powerful, lighter, and larger, they will be used to view more of the world.
Hold an electronic tablet up as you walk along a street—or wear a pair of magic spectacles or contact lenses—and it will show you an annotated overlay of the real street ahead... which stores sell your favorite items, where your friends are hanging out.
Computer chips are becoming so small, and screens so thin and cheap, that in the next 30 years semitransparent eyeglasses will apply an informational layer to reality.

12. 5) Access: Ownership is getting replaced by access
Things are getting dematerialized.
Things move quickly from being products to being services.
If you have the app on your phone, you don’t need to own a car.
We do not want to own anything as long as we can access it when needed.

13. Platforms are factories for services
Dematerialization/ Decentralization/ Global Communication… All lead to more Platforms
Platforms are factories for services
Services favor Access over Ownership

14. School/Education as a service
Software as service are just the beginning
Cars -(Uber) hotels as service (Airbnb)
tools as service (TechShop)
clothes as service (Stitch Fix, Bombfell
toys as service (Nerd Block, Sparkbox)
new startups trying to figure how to do food as service –FaaS- (Blue Apron..)
School/Education as a service

15. 6) Sharing: Volunteering our time and skills for others’ benefit
the “cognitive surplus”, CROWDSOURCE- others’ ideas, opinions, time & skills to tap the Wisdom of the Crowd
1.8 billion photos are shared every day.
A billion monthly users post videos on YouTube
People update and curate content on Wikipedia for free..
Sharing – and Trend 7 Filtering – idea that platforms and technologies allow remarkable levels of sharing (ex crowdsourcing, competition/contests such as 99designs for logos/graphic design) – Filtering refines mass information and collaboration to filter results (recommendations, based on previous likes and dislikes, friends through social networking, etc…Understanding filters is important as filters=attention – critical part of marketing and branding

16. 7) Filtering: Making choices in a time of abundance
We now have a surplus of things- the SoT
Between last year and now you have access to 8 million new songs, 2 million new books, 16,000 new films, 30 billion blog posts, 182 billion tweets and 400,000 new products.
We need help from curators, experts, friends and other users to narrow down this ocean to a consumable glass of water. That is called filtering… Ergo Yelp & Amazon etc. .. COLLABORATIVE FILTERING

17. Affordable Personalization One can now produce significant uniqueness without raising prices to the luxury level. The vision was too far ahead of the technology. But now the technology is catching up.
The latest generation of robots are capable of agile manufacturing &advanced 3-D printers can rapidly produce units of one.
Ubiquitous tracking, interacting& filtering means we can cheaply assemble a multidimensional profile of ourselves, which can guide any custom services we desire.
THE DIGI-Me as Consumption Filter

18. 8) Remixing: Building on what others have created
TRUTH is not delivered by authors & authorities but is assembled in real time piece by piece by the audience themselves.
People of the Screen make their own content - construct their own truth.
..Instagram stars whose legions of followers add, subtract, modify and share photos w/ annotations, comments , emoijis in an exponential way.
People creating own MEdia & consuming content created by amateurs.. In far greater volume & variety than from THE professional-Media

19. 9) Interacting: We are learning to interact in new ways
Everything will get eyes & hearing & we can add superhuman senses such as GPS location sensing, heat detection, X-ray vision, diverse molecule sensitivity, or smell. These permit our creations to respond to us, to interact with us, and to adapt themselves to our uses.
Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality …anywhere.. Wearables everywhere.
We are interacting with our devices in our natural language. (OPUS RESEARCH- INTERACTIVE ASSISTANTS CONFERENCES)
METAbots, DigiMe’s & KnowBots & CoBots

20. 10) Tracking: You are being tracked all the time
IoT=It’s obviously Tracked
health trackers , buying patterns and movement inside the store.
Website track your eyeballs. Your face is recognizable across millions of cameras in homes, offices, streets and public transport and certainly at airports.
Machines have learned to recognize your face and correlate it your digital footprints.
Next, the trend towards massive tracking is already well – get ready for Billions more sensors/collectors and more interestingly, huge advancements in data monitoring, classification and artificial intelligence. Through big-data analytics we will be“instantly” smarter about every aspect of our lives

22. 11) Questioning:

23. 12) Beginning
The technological shifts that we are seeing is only the beginning.
…as the Machine Learns-- it will guide our adaptation of this massively wired, connected and always on world.
…One thing is for sure, it is only the beginning.

24. Big Data and the Rise of Augmented Intelligence: Sean Gourley at TEDxAuckland
The-6-ds-of-exponentials/
Business Transformation - What's Most Important?
Digital Disruption - What is Your Company Doing About It?

28. We are well into the next great wave of change---
“We are in the midst of redefining our basic ideas about what enterprise & organization & even being human are about -- how value is created -- how careers are pursued”-2006
“At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we know them today, will either disappear or be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just the next 15 ~10 years.
A prediction:
White-collar employment as we've known it is dead. Job security as we've known it is over. Over and gone”

29. Likely jobs w/in next 10 years
Director of Emerging Thought
Chief Imagination Officer
Hacker Relations Manager
Human Interface Manager
Valuer of Intangible Assets
Have Existed since 2003
February 08, 2005
Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez

30. Why bother with the future
"If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years…
you're out of your mind."
CEO, Coca Cola

31. Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
“When the rate of change outside your company exceeds the rate of change inside your company, disaster is imminent”
Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
One thing I’ve learned about data – If you take it in the back room and torture it long enough, it will confess to anything you want to.

32. What we were predicting 10 years ago….

33. What the World Will Look Like in 2025
What is being Predicted Now:
What the World Will Look Like in 2025

34. Looking to the future: common mistakes…
Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities
Simply extrapolating current trends- (& in isolation of other trends/factors)
Thinking of only one future

35. Looking to the future: common mistakes…

37. Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ” Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,
Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticators
The study was complex, but the conclusion can be summarized simply: the experts bombed. Not only were they worse than statistical models, they could barely eke out a tie with the proverbial dart-throwing chimps.
FUTURE BABBLE
Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
By Dan Gardner
305 pp. Dutton. $26.95.

38. Consider the "Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies"

39. We look at the present through a rear view mirror”
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
Marshall McLuhan
We look at the present through a rear view mirror”

40. “It has been moved and seconded that we stick our heads in the sand.”

41. The Newsonomics of Oblivion
(March-2011)
Piecemeal change is a dead-end, given the converging downward spirals of the business.
Only massive, digital-first strategies and re-organizations that scrap old structures, budgets, job descriptions — and, massively, costs
The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

42. iPad daily:
Rupert Murdoch

43. …in the ol’ 2nd Wave World People Subscribed to Media

45. How best to prepare for the future
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies
Based on probable patterns of established trends

46. The Trends are very clear:
Increasing:
Technological capabilities & capacities
Computing (AI & BI); Nano & Bio-tech; Communication & Transportation…
Population
Decreasing:
Resources
Separation – Economic, Psycho & Socio….near total of privacy…

47. Bata Merchandise Management 2000

48. Long term trends are very clear--

49. Law of Accelerating Returns

50. 4 Factors Impacting Future Forecasting Accuracy:
Continuous Advance of:
Info-Processing Power
Data & Text -Algorithms
Sensor data
Individuals in the InfoSphere

54. Ergo: How best to think about the future?
Think of the drivers of change
Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future
Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different
Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

55. What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
TechnoSphere
InfoSphere
SocioSphere
PsychoSphere
Bio & PowerSpheres

56. Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
TechnoSphere Drivers
Intelligent Tech
Convergent Media
Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.
"The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity -
by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless-
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence

58. Web 4.0 Web 3.0 Web 2.0 Web 1.0 PC Era Intelligent Web Web OS
Connections between Information
Intelligent Web
Web OS
Web 4.0
Web 3.0
Intelligent personal agents
Semantic Web
Distributed Search
SWRL
OWL
SPARQL
Semantic Databases
Social Web
OpenID
AJAX
Semantic Search
ATOM
Widgets
RSS
P2P
RDF
Web 2.0
Mashups
Office 2.0
Javascript
Flash
SOAP
XML
Weblogs
Social Media Sharing
The Web
Java
HTML
SaaS
Social Networking
HTTP
Directory Portals
Wikis VR
Keyword Search
Lightweight Collaboration
The PC
BBS
Websites
Gopher
Web 1.0
MMO’s
MacOS
SQL
Groupware
The Internet
SGML
Databases
Windows
File Servers
PC Era
FTP
IRC
USENET
PC’s
File Systems
Connections between people
Radar Networks

59. Change is now underway 59

60. Interactive marketing will near $55 billion by 201460

61. The New Media Created & controlled by the Consumer
All about individual interests & expression

62. replaced by

63. Marketing in the New Economy
Engage
Sense
Process
Respond
Traditional
Make
Price
Distribute
Promote
Global competition undefined competitors
In new economy You should sense what is going on process and immeadiately respond If ypu will not respond on time your competitor will respond
Respond quickly nearly real time responses
HOW
By using all available technology of course according to your requirement, according to your scale of your business according to ypur capital
REDEFINE YOUR BUSINESS
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT
IS IT EASY
IS IT CHEAP
DOES IT WORTH
WILL IT BE LUCRATIVE
WHETHER IT WORTHS OR NOT IS IT A MUST IS THERE A SURVIVAL RISK IF NOT DONE
Answer may be NO But what about future Today at present time you should be the future’s business. Or you may fail.

64. Discussion guided- Data Driven -
INFORMS
Strategy
Marketing
Online Discussion
Social Media Data
DRIVES
CREATES
Take in and adjust to feedback
INSPIRES
Source: March 12, 2010, “Defining Social Intelligence” Forrester report

65. Social Media is Just One Piece

66. Social Media is not magic.
Joining Facebook (or Twitter, or LinkedIn) will not revolutionize your company or your marketing.

67. If you are BORING in real life, you are still boring in social media.

68. You’re not smelling the bullsh*t. If you think social media
will fix your business…
Get your nose
examined.
You’re not
smelling
the bullsh*t.

69. None of this has changed.
You still need to:
identify your audience.
get them to notice you.
create value for them.
sell something to them.
keep them happy.
None of this has changed.

70. There are MANY marketing tools.
Use them all together for the best results.

71. Incorporate a Full Mix of Media
Earned Media
“The Result”
Owned Media
“The Portable Brand”
Paid Media
“The Catalyst”

72. Integrated marketing weaves together multiple elements
Mass media
New Media
Social networking
Consumer buying cycle
Engagement
Experience
Relationship
“Adver-vising”
Twitter
Call center
Direct &
CRM
While we still need to reach consumers through different channels, are you thinking enough about how consumers are using each one? Are you telling consumers where they can find information to dispel their doubts? They’re already trying and if they can’t do it what does that tell them about your brand?
The challenge is not to find ways to get ever more attention and so intrude on consumers’ lives.
The answer is to design a campaign to deliberately link these information sources to transforms a series of random, messages into (click) a series that guides consumers through the buying cycle, by engaging their emotions, delivering a experience of your customer advocacy, and inviting them to begin a relationship
Events
Social marketing
Off & On-line
Promotion

73. New Business Model Tenets
Leverage Economies of the Long Tail
Utilize OPEN Source & Cloud Services
Use Peer production (UGC), Networking & Collaboration
Leverage Collective Intelligence
Pass Labor +Resource Savings to Customer

74. Permission Personal Precise Partip-ulation
Consumers choose w/ whom & when to engage
Personal
Consumers tap self selected networks
Precise
Communicate/relate w/ consumers in Real time Right time
Partip-ulation
Consumers participate in own manipulation

75. The best way to predict the future is to invent it–
Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
“computer in a pen”

76. Concluding Predictions

79. “Never expect someone to understand change
when
their livelihood depends on not understanding it.” 
– Upton Sinclair