1. 2nd Annual Mason Energy Symposium: Energy-Water Nexus
Energy-water Nexus in Central Asia: Returning to Soviet Energy-Water Management Framework?
Dr. Mariya Pak
2nd Annual Mason Energy Symposium: Energy-Water Nexus
April 26, 2018

2. 1960 Shoreline

3. 1960 Shoreline

4. Fossil Fuel Reserves and Hydropower Potential
Country
Location in the Basin
Crude oil (MTOE)
Gas (MTOE)
Coal (MTOE)
Hydropower potential
(GWh/year)
Kazakhstan
Downstream
 1,100
1,500
24,300
27,000
Turkmenistan
 75
2,252
Insignificant
 2,000
Uzbekistan
 82
1,476
2,851
15,000
Tajikistan
Upstream  2 5
500
317,000
Kyrgyz Republic  6
580
163,000
Source: Water Energy Nexus in Central Asia (World Bank, 2004)

5. Erosion of regional cooperation in the energy and water sectors from 1991-2016
Weakening of CAPS
Transmission lines have been destroyed or disconnected, reducing the capacity to trade energy
Lack of enforcement of agreements
Correspondence between the water ministries and minutes of the meetings suggest that there are cases when the agreements are not implemented or there are disagreements if the agreements are implemented in full.
Limited geographic scope and timeframe of new agreements
In 2008, a dry year, country officials met at least five times to come to agreement on Syr Darya water allocation, at least three times to negotiate operation of Kairakum reservoir, and at least two times for Toktogul reservoir.
Manmade natural disaster
When the Kyrgyz Republic has to discharge large volumes of water during the winter season (due to high demand in heating and electricity in general), downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan experience flooding.

6. Recent developments: Positive change in energy-water dialogue
Upstream-downstream collaboration on large hydropower project development
In October 2017, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the implementation of the Kambarata HPP-1 construction project.
In March 2018, President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan expressed his interest in investigating the options for Uzbek participation in the development of the Tajik hydropower sector, including construction of Rogun HPP.
Regional power trade negotiations and deals have intensified in
Uzbekistan is making efforts to restore a synchronized energy grid with its Central Asian neighbors Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, with a possible extension to Afghanistan.
The Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan signed a new power trade agreement
Transmission lines are being built and restored to re-connect Tajikistan to Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan signed a Memorandum envisioning the transit of electricity from Turkmenistan to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s power grid.

7. Concluding remarks
Increased regional cooperation on large hydropower construction has potential to:
Lead to a new long-term energy-water development plan, which the region has not seen since the Soviets era
Improve water allocations mechanisms of Amu and Syr Darya Rivers
Generate revenue for the Kyrgyz Republic’s and Tajikistan’s economies
Expand the regional and extra-regional power trade
Create potential for other forms of transboundary cooperation

8. Thank you