1. Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document & Iran’s Foreign Relations
Conference on
Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document and Public Participation
Sharif University of Technology
Abbas Maleki
May, 18, 2005

2. IRAN has 1% of the world’s population,
7% of the world’s natural reserves including
-10% of the global proven oil reserves
-16% of the world’s natural gas resources.
130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions

3. Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse

4. What would be Iran after 20 Years?
The first country in the region at economic, scientific and technology levels
line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of becoming an “economic and technological power” over other policy areas, is very evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document which has produced the first ever official long-term macro strategy of the Islamic Republic.

5. Iran and its Subregions
Middle East
Persian Gulf
South West Asia
Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan
Caspian Basin

6. Desired Iranian Society
It describes the “desired Iranian society” for the year 2025 as follows:
Secure, independent and powerful
Progressive
Knowledge-based
Economic growth based on a large portion of social capital
Growth of social capital through education
Society capable of steady economic capacity building

7. Economic and Technological Power
The aim to become an “economic and technological power” is at the heart of Iran’s new understanding of Iran’s foreign and security relations.
In other words, a consolidation of Iran’s economic significance, especially on a regional and international scale, would improve Iran’s foreign relations and national security standing.

8. 3 Scenarios for Iran’s Future
Expansionism,
Isolationism,
Pro Development
The 20-Year Perspective calls for Iran to become an “economic and technological power”, underscores the Islamic Republic’s desire to give economic development priority over other policy areas.

9. I. R. Iran’s Goals
While the interrelation between economic power and foreign interaction is disputed by some analysts and intellectuals, there are good reasons to believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is pursuing an agenda of economic growth and technological advancement in order to achieve one or more of the following goals:

10. I. R. Iran’s Goals (2)
Increase the regime’s legitimacy among the Iranian society through improved economic conditions and higher efficiency;
Consolidate Iran’s regional and international position by projecting a greater significance both as an engine of regional economic stability, and also as one of the key suppliers of energy in a tense global energy market;
Secure the international respect that has been missing in Iran’s international relations.

11. Five-Year Plans Foci
While the document outlines the various policies in the fields of culture, socio-political developments, foreign policy, defense, economy and environment, it also determines the foci of the five-year plans that will be drafted in the 20-year period.

12. Orientations of the four upcoming five-year plans
-Realization of fast-pace and sustainable growth;
-Generation of sustainable employment opportunities and reduction of unemployment figures;
-Creation of a competitive market environment and facilitation of Iran’s competitiveness on an international scale;
-Promotion of efficiency growth, especially the efficiency of Total Factor Production (energy, capital, human resources, water etc.)
-Proactive interaction with the rest of the world in all fields and mutual interrelationship between the global economy and the Iranian economy;
-Promotion of entrepreneurship as well as innovative initiatives and technological and research capacity building;
-Provision of food security through self-sufficiency in agricultural production;
-Development of a diverse, knowledge-based economy driven by human capital and modern technologies;
-Active presence in regional and international markets and participation in the international division of labor;
-Generation of incentives for non-oil exports and promotion of all products that are internationally competitive;
-Creation of a market environment that attracts the domestic and international business community as well as entrepreneurs focusing on security, sustainability and respect for material and intellectual property rights;
-Focus on Iran’s competitive and comparative advantages and the creation of new advantages;
-Containment of inflation and promotion of growing purchasing power for the lower and medium income classes;
-Promotion of the role of the cooperative sector through facilitation of this sector’s access to market intelligence, technology and facilitation of greater interaction between various cooperatives;
-Promotion of the role of the private and cooperative sectors in all economic activities by limiting the government role to presence in the key sectors mentioned in Article 44 of the Constitution and by making the regulatory role of the government as efficient as possible.

13. Iran’s Foreign policy Preferences
The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.
Four groups of countries are ranked in preference:
(1) Iran’s neighbours;
(2) Muslim countries;
(3) Third World countries;
(4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

14. Iran’s New FP during Vision Document’s Era
Provincial: Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Bilateral: Japan, Egypt, Brazil
Multilateral: India and Turkmenistan
Regional: GCC, ECO, CASCO,
International: USA, Russia, EU
Relations with International Agencies: UN, IAEA, UNESCO,

15. Iran’s Membership in Regional/International Organizations
United Nations and its institutions
ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization)
OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries)
ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)
North-South Corridor
D8 (Islamic Developed Countries)
Non-Aligned Movement

16. Proposed Clubs for Iran
SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)
GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)
Arab League

17. A Necessary Dialogue?
Asian Identity:
Russia
China
India
and Iran?

18. Energy resource periphery
Energy demand heartland

19. Iran and Initiated Regional Organization
Persian States Countries:
Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan
Caspian Cooperation Organization:
Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
Shi’a Nations Rim:
1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain
2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Afghanistan

20. Iran’s Foreign Relations: Process
Leader
President
High National Security Council
Foreign Ministry
Cabinet
Parliament
Expediency Council

22. Iran’s Foreign Relations: Conceptual Challenges
Iran-US Relations
Iran-EU Relations
Oil price
Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975)
Iran’s share of Hirmand river
3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf
Regional Crises
Caspian legal regime

23. Models for-US Iran Ties
Isolation
Engagement
Sticks and Carrots
Sticks
Attack
Mono polar Leadership

24. US military in Asia

25. Iran and Europe
Member ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.
Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.
In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.

26. Iran and Europe (2)
Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries.
The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions. The physibility study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.

27. Iran and Europe (3)
-An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian
-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project)
-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).
Dialogue on Human Rights
Collective Security in Iran’s Subregions:
-Persian Gulf
-Caucasus
-The Roof of the World

28. World Oil Reserves

29. World Energy Security (1)
-A perception is World should be concerned about its energy security given recent developments in the Middle East.
-Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East, World has not faced problems with its energy supplies.
-Over these past months, there were never any disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf beyond Iraq and what’s more.

30. World Energy Security (2)
Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf OPEC producers significantly increased production to fill the gap.
-Reality is that the market remains well-supplied.
-The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world.
Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China.

31. Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline

32. Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka

33. PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSION
Bottlenecks and
Pipelines
11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational
6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational.
Of particular notice:
CPC
BTC
TCP

34. Hirmand Flow

35. Iran-Iraq New Relations

36. Nagorno Karabkh Crises

37. Confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan

38. Conclusions:
Iran’s Foreign policy is facing serious challenges during Iran’s 20-Year Perspective.
Most of challenges are related to Iranian borders with its neighbors.
Energy demand and supply equilibrium has dramatic impacts on Iran.
United States different approaches to Iran will change Iran’s destiny.
Looking to East is one option for Iran