1. The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Transition: Lee Jones
Presented by Nathan ghelli

2. Reform Process: skepticism
2010: first elections held since 22 years of military dominance
Followed the botched “roadmap to democracy”
Followed the “referendum” of 2008
Military backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) came out as primary beneficiary from elections
60% of seats in both houses of parliament
Near complete monopoly of the regional assemblies
Little change expected from superficial exercise

3. Reform Process: signs of hope
2012: real reform seemed to be underway
NLD won in by-elections
Peace talks with ethnic-minority insurgents
Trade unions were legalized
Internet censorship eased
IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank were taking active interest in the country

4. Caveats for Optimism: social struggles could direct reform
“Murdoch School” of critical political economy
Highlights structural constraints
Provides perspective
Useful school of thought for placing developments in broader context
Argues:
Assessment of states should reflect social power relations rather than institutional makeup
Political outcomes and reform aren’t dependent solely on policy
Social strife and conflict for power relations exert influence

5. Murdoch School Approach: analyzing dictatorship to democracy
Indonesia’s reformasi era
Decentralized system of “money politics”
Become “oligarchic democracy”
Marcos dictatorship in the Philippines
“elite democracy” of landholders
Structural causes of poverty remained
Political participation was a farce which never threatened dominant interests

6. Murdoch School Approach: analyzing socialism to capitalism
Cambodia’s transition
Privatizing assets to elites in the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP)
Control of patronage resources
Close ties to the military
CPP controls the direction of reform process

7. State-mediated capitalism:
Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) gained power
Pursued autarkic, state-led import-substitution industrialization
Approach failed due to:
Falling commodity export revenues
Rising capital import and debt costs :
inflation, and unemployment were both dangerously high
Stagnating economy
Collapse of the BSPP
Pro-market reforms were quickly adopted

8. State-mediated capitalism: constraints
Historically weak bourgeoisie
Nationalization of internal trade in 1963
Regime’s political strategy
State monopolies remained
Restrictions on the private sector
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) enhanced military strength

9. Transition to capitalism: early results
Army exploited process to enhance business holdings
Regime promoted “national entrepreneurs”
Re-emergence of bourgeoisie
Shift in ownership towards private sector
Complex relationship between business class and state:
Reliance of business elites on state patronage
“limited access order”
Reliance of the state on business elites
Brokering ceasefires with insurgent groups
State-linked oligarchic elite
Military’s retreat opens door for influence over reform process

10. Political complexes on the borderlands
State power on borders has shifted
Consists of “emerging political complexes”
“Ceasefire capitalism” has weakened minorities
Strengthened ethnic minority elites, regional army commanders and national and foreign investors
Led to a relationship between business elites and the state which was accommodating and reciprocal
Regime allowed access to “limited access order”
State depended on drug lords’ capital
Recently insurgent groups resistance has waned
Redirecting trade
Shift in power to military officials

11. Looking forward: Best-case scenario
1) Hard-liners have been marginalized
2) More democratic institutions favor a dispersal of power and empower reformers
3) Economic reforms are side-lining Myanmar's crony capitalists

12. Looking forward: Critical Political Economy Scenario/Perspective
Reform is shaped through top-down process
Military regime has been strengthened
Opponents remain in position of weakness
Increasing military strength and spending
Persistent budget deficits
Increasing money supply has passed costs on to consumers
Western and domestic pressure has failed

13. Looking forward: Critical Political Economy Scenario/Perspective
Top-down type of transition and “discipline flourishing democracy”
SLORC constitutional changes
Reserving parliamentary seats for military
De-facto veto on constitutional changes
Authority to retake power
Implications:
Constrains all other political actors
No realistic prospect of accounting for human rights abuses

14. Looking forward: Critical Political Economy Scenario/Perspective
Political complexes on the borderland:
Regional army commanders remain power brokers
State relies on crony businesspeople for negotiations
In these business’s interests to promote stability
Therefore:
Even successful pacification of borderlands, power relations on the ground will remain the same
Likelihood of corruption undermining reform remains high
Struggle over the reform process relies not just on policy, but the implementation of policy

15. Struggles of Reform Critical Political Economy Scenario/Perspective
Result: struggles of legislative reform:
Farmland Act
Facilitated land grabs
Empowers state agencies to allocate land
Foreign Investment Bill
MPs introduced protections on domestic business
Funnel foreign investment into minority joint ventures with established local firms
Constitutional wrangling
Battle over legislative power
Parliamentary seats/power does not guarantee liberalization
Dominance of big illiberal business class

16. Struggles of Reform Critical Political Economy Scenario/Perspective
Illiberal big business
Secure further political patronage in the future
Impose broad limits on reform process
Influence MPs from outside parliament
Any attempt to dismantle wealth might lead to social unrest
Money laundering
Reform process might even be beneficial to big business
Promote sector-specific liberalizations which they themselves gain from

17. The Next Cambodia? Ominous Similarities: Cautious Optimism:
State-managed transition to capitalism
Concentrated economic power
Dominant party (USDP)
Fusion of business and political elites
Natural resource concentrated economy
Cautious Optimism:
Popularity of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
Division of state (executive) and legislative power
Cronies hedging bets by supporting NLD in 2015