1. Creating a Humane Society Using AI Role of Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels
Raj Reddy
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
May 19, 2018
Talk at ACM China Workshop on AI, May 19, 2018, Shanghai

2. AI Revisited: Misconceptions and Hype

3. What is AI? AI Does Not Attempt to Replace Humans
Misconception leading to Many Outrageous Statements
AI Will Kill Us All
AI Will Enslave Us
Singularity is a Myth
The Role of Engineering is the Enhance the Physical Capabilities of Humans
The Role of AI is to Enhance the Mental Capabilities of Humans
Human Machine Symbiosis
AI Can Solve Some Problems That Humans Cannot
Big Data Driven Discoveries
Humans Can Solve Some Problems That Machines Cannot
Together They Can Solve Problems Faster Better and/or cheaper

4. What is AI?
AI is an attempt to automate tasks that are usually though to be uniquely Human
Requiring Intelligence, Intuition, Creativity, Innovation, Emotion, Empathy
Usually Human coding using Heuristics, Rules, and
Statistical Models - HMMs
Non Sequential Algorithms
Early Attempts
Attempts to Solve Problem not Expressible as Classical Algorithms
Proving Theorems, Playing Chess
Understand Language, Speech, Images
Create Robots that Sense Think and Act
Later Systems attempted
Compose music, Painting
Automate trading in Stock Market
Usually leads to Imperfect Solutions
OCR error rates 99%
2010 Flash Crash: Dow Lost 1000 points in 36 minutes

5. AI In 20th Century: Use of Knowledge in Problem Solving
An Intelligent System must
Learns from Experience
Use Vast Amount of Knowledge
Tolerate Error and Ambiguity
Respond in Real Time
Communicate with Humans using Natural Language
Search Compensates for Lack of Knowledge
Puzzles
Knowledge Compensates for Lack of Search
F=ma; E = mc2
Traditional Sources of Knowledge
Formal Knowledge: Learnt in Schools and Universities
Books, Manuals,
Informal Knowledge: Heuristics from Peoples and Environment
Human Encoding of Knowledge
Expert Systems
Knowledge Based System
Rule Based Ssytem

6. Major Breakthroughs in AI of the 20th Century
Enabled by Brute-force, Heuristics, Human Coding of Rules and Knowledge, and Simple Machine Learning (Pattern Recognition)
World Champion Chess Machine
IBM Deep Blue
Mathematical Discovery
Proof Checkers
Accident Avoiding Car
CMU: No Hands Across America
Robotics
Manufacturing Automation
Disaster Rescue Robots
Speech Recognition Systems
Dictation Machine
Computer Vision and Image Processing
Medical Image Processing
Expert Systems
Rule Based Systems
Knowledge Based Systems

7. AI in 21st Century: Discover and Use Data Driven Knowledge Sources
Paradigm Shift in Science
First 3 Paradigms: Experiment, Theory, Simulation
Rutherford, Bohr, Oppenheimer
4th Paradigm: Data Driven Science
Create Next Generation AI systems
Data Driven AI systems
To Solve Previously Unsolved Problems
Previously Unavailable Sources of Data
Knowledge from Big Data:
Data Driven Learning of Models and Algorithms
Knowledge from Multiple (Cross) Media:
Social Media Intelligence Gathering
From All Language Sources
From All the Media: Text, Speech, Image and Video
Knowledge from Crowd Intelligence:
Global Brain: from Individual Intelligence to Collective Intelligence
Knowledge from Augmented Intelligence:
Human-Machine Hybrid Intelligence for Collaborative Problem Solving
Knowledge from Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles:
Intelligence from Collaborating Teams of Robots
Automatic Discovery of New Knowledge
Machine Learning using Big Data
Deep Learning

8. Major Breakthroughs in AI in 21st Century
Enabled by Big Data and Machine Learning
Language Translation
Google Translate: Any Language to Any Language
Speech to Speech Dialog
Siri, Cortana, Alexa
Autonomous Vehicles
CMU, Stanford, Google, Tesla
Deep Question Answering
IBM’s Watson
RoboSoccer
World Champion Poker
CMU Libratus
No Limit Texas Hold’em Poker

9. Intelligent Agents, Intelligence Amplifiers, Augmented Intelligence Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels

10. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels in Service of Society
Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels are two families of Intelligent Agents that can help with Societal Problems
A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you want to do and helps you to do it with less effort
A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that Discovers And Warns You About Unanticipated Events That Could Impact Your Safety, Security, and Happiness
Each Person has Thousands of Cogs and Gats as Personal Assistants

11. COGs and GATs in Service of Society
COGs personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for
Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers
Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable
News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering
Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills
Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations
GATs are personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for
Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather
Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters
Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes
Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc.
Assume Everyone on the Planet has Personalized Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)

12. Steps in Creating Smart X
Smart X: Water Security, Food Security, etc.
Guardian Angel Apps Dedicated to each Task for each Person
To Create COGs and GATs in Service of Society We Need (Big) Data from Every Person on The Planet
Time, Location (GPS), Accelerometers, Barometers, Microphones and Cameras
GigaBytes Per Person Every Day
Monitor, Diagnose, and Repair Cycle For Each Human Need
Activity Monitoring enables
Discovery of Intention which enables
Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)

13. Necessary Conditions for Success in Development of COGs and GATs
Infrastructure
Instrument Data Sources
People
Places and
Things
Computing Power: Processor, Memory and Bandwidth
Multi Farm Cloud Computing
Super Computers for Processing
Zettabyte (1021 Bytes) Storage Farms
Million Gigabit bandwidth
Machine Learning and Analytics

14. Technologies of Guardian Angels Guardian Angels Publish and Subscribe
Service Agents are created by service providers using agent templates included in the platform
Download and Pay just as for Apps and Personalization
Guardian Angels Can request and manage services on behalf of their Wards.
Every organization that wants to enable access to their services by Guardian Angels will create a Service Agent for this purpose.
Opt-in “Waze” like Models
Privacy
Individual
Other participants
Legal
Can be subpoena-ed
Security
Information falling into wrong hands

15. What do mean by Serving Society
What do mean by Serving Society? Find an Innovative Solutions For Societal Needs

16. Serving the Society – I Embrace Universal Human Rights of United Nations
1 Right to Equality 2 Freedom from Discrimination
3 Right to Life Liberty Happiness 4 Freedom from Slavery
5 Freedom from Torture 6 Right to Recognition as Person
7 Right to Equality before Law 8 Right to a Competent Tribunal
9 Freedom from Arbitrary Arrest 10 Right to Fair Public Hearing
11 Innocent until Proven Guilty 12 Right to Privacy and Home
13 Right to Free Movement 14 Right to Asylum
15 Right to a Nationality 16 Right to Marriage and Family
17 Right to Own Property 18 Freedom of Religion
19 Freedom of Opinion 20 Right of Peaceful Assembly
21 Right to Free Elections 22 Right to Social Security
23 Right to Join Trade Unions 24 Right to Rest and Leisure
25 Adequate Living Standard 26 Right to Education
27 Right to Cultural Life 28 Right to a Social Order
29 Free and Full Development 30 Freedom from Interference
Of the 30 or so human rights of the United Nations Declaration, I have highlighted two which I consider most inhumane: slavery and torture. It is unfortunate that even in the 21st century there are still instances of slavery and torture around the world. The definition of modern slavery includes slavery, debt bondage, forced marriage, sale or exploitation of children, human trafficking and forced labor.
The Global Slavery Index estimates that nearly 30 million people are still enslaved around the world, with countries like Mauritania, Haiti, Pakistan, India and Nepal leading the list.

17. Serving the Society – II Embrace Sustainable Development Goals of UN
1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2: End hunger, achieve food security and promote sustainable agriculture
3: Ensure good health and promote well-being for all at all ages
4: Ensure quality education for all and promote lifelong learning
5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6: Ensure access to water and sanitation for all
7: Ensure access to affordable, clean energy for all
8: Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth and employment
9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization
10: Reduce inequality within and among countries
11: Inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities
12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
14: Conserve and sustainable use of marine resources
15: Sustainable use of forests and combat desertification
16: Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies
Of the 30 or so human rights of the United Nations Declaration, I have highlighted two which I consider most inhumane: slavery and torture. It is unfortunate that even in the 21st century there are still instances of slavery and torture around the world. The definition of modern slavery includes slavery, debt bondage, forced marriage, sale or exploitation of children, human trafficking and forced labor.
The Global Slavery Index estimates that nearly 30 million people are still enslaved around the world, with countries like Mauritania, Haiti, Pakistan, India and Nepal leading the list.

18. Serving the Society – III Actionable Sustainable Development Goals
SDG
Water Security 6
Energy Security 7
Food Security 2
Health
Education 4
Multilingual Communication 9
Transportation 9
Sanitation and Hygiene 6
Housing ?
Jobs
Disaster Warning and Relief ?
Of the 30 or so human rights of the United Nations Declaration, I have highlighted two which I consider most inhumane: slavery and torture. It is unfortunate that even in the 21st century there are still instances of slavery and torture around the world. The definition of modern slavery includes slavery, debt bondage, forced marriage, sale or exploitation of children, human trafficking and forced labor.
The Global Slavery Index estimates that nearly 30 million people are still enslaved around the world, with countries like Mauritania, Haiti, Pakistan, India and Nepal leading the list.

19. Creating a Humane Society Using AI: Role of Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels Leads Us to the Realm of Solving Problems That Human Don’t know Hoe to Solve

20. Basic Services Needed by Everyone
Water
Energy
Food
Health
Education
Communication
Transportation
Sanitation
Housing
Jobs
Disaster Relief

21. Essential Services Based on UN Sustainable Development Goals
Smart Water Security
Smart Energy Security
Smart Food Security
Smart Health
Smart Education
Smart Multilingual Communication
Smart Transportation
Smart Sanitation and Hygiene
Smart Housing
Smart Jobs
Smart Disaster Warning and Relief

22. Creating a Guardian Angel

23. Architecture of Guardian Angelss Guardian Angelss Publish and Subscribe
Guardian Angelss are Mobile Apps that can be enabled for Any Person on the Planet
Unlike APPs of today, Guardian Angelss are Mass-customized to Each Individual
Designed to be Non-intrusive, Autonomic, and Device Independent
Always On, Always Present and Always Working
Always Learning
Enduring (life-long)
Guardian Angelss Monitor, Analyze and Learn From Experience;
Learn From Own Experience And Experience of Others
And share knowledge with a community of Guardian Angelss
Automated Discovery of Data and Information Sources
Guardian Angelss Publish and Subscribe Anonymized Data of User Activities and Experiences
Data, suitably anonymized, can be used to learn appropriate responses for every possible situation by
Learning preferences by observing user choices,
Learning by task similarity and user similarity,
Learning by error correction and
Simply learning thru clarification dialog ( does that mean yes? Would you care to define it?)

24. Cloud Based Architecture of Guardian Angels
Always On
App Instantiation in the Cloud
Activity Monitoring: iPhone Sensor data
Always Working
Diagnosis and Repair
Always Learning
Publish/Subscribe

25. Family of Personalized Guardian Angels
Personalization and Customization of Guardian Angels Cloud Based Guardian Angel Platform Linked to User Smart Phone
Learning
Learn by Watching
Learn by being taught
Learn by doing
Learn by asking others
Learn by discovery
Security
Multimodal authentication
Continuous authentication
Encryption
Big Data Management
Process, index, story and retrieve data
Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience
Dialog
With humans
With other agents
Self Healing
Detect errors
Resolve errors
Power Mgmt
Activity Monitoring
Multi-Sensor Integration
Autonomic Systems
Etc.
Family of Personalized Guardian Angels
Subscribe to Local, National and Global Sources and Act on Relevant Information

26. Publish/Subscribe Eco System of
Guardian Angel Global Infrastructure Platform
Activity Monitoring and Intention Awareness
User
Guardian Angels
Cloud Based
User Infrastructure
Platform
Knowledge Source Publishers
Global, National and Local
Knowledge Source Distributors
ReTweet Model
Global DataBase of Humankind

27. How Do I Get a Guardian Angel? Guardian Angel Market Place

28. Scalable Sustainable Affordable Personal Guardian Angels
By 2020, Everyone on The Planet Has Access to a Phone with Global Connectivity
A Phone is Expected to Cost $50
Every Man, Woman And Child will have Access to 16GB+ of Space on The Cloud from Facebook, Google And Microsoft
Everyone on The Planet Has Access to
Unlimited Computation, Memory and Bandwidth
Language divide and literacy divide limits access to the internet-enabled solutions to many people in the world.
Providing the right information in the right language and right medium enables scalability to all the people on the planet.
Sustainability and Affordability are natural consequences of exponential reduction in size and cost of Information Technology.
By 2020, a phone is expected to cost $20. Every Man, Woman and Child will have Access to 16GB+ of Space on The Cloud from Facebook, Google and Microsoft, enough to host all personal information in your own secure privacy protected area accessible only to you and your Guardian Angel.
Language divide and literacy divide limits access to the Internet enabled solutions to many people in the world. Providing the right information in the right language and right medium enables scalability to all the people on the planet..
Sustainability and Affordability are natural consequences of exponential reduction in size and cost of Information Technology.

29. Technology Challenge
Creation of Guardian Angel Technologies for providing the right information to every man, woman and child on the planet can lead to Life Liberty and Happiness for all
While the cost appears to be prohibitive, on a per capita basis it represents less than 0.1% of GWP.
A Social Network Of Guardian Angels that can anticipate and share potential disaster scenarios can save 50% to 80% of all accidental deaths in the world
and save millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars of property damage every year
In conclusion, the creation of Guardian Angel Technologies for providing the right information to every man, woman and child on the planet in a timely manner can eliminate surprise and reduce human suffering and misery. While the cost appears to be prohibitive, on a per capita basis it represents less than 0.1% of the Gross World Product. A social network of Guardian Angels that can anticipate potential disastrous incidents in the life of each person on the planet, and warn and take protective actions may be able to save 50% to 80% of all accidental deaths in the world. This would result in saving over millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars of damage to property every year. That is certainly the most important research computer scientists could be doing in the 21st century. And it is certainly the most influential research project that the Honda Foundation could undertake.

30. Affordability
Free Sensor Intensive Smart Phone to Every Person on the Planet: Current cost of $200/Unit
Estimated 2020 Cost per Unit of $50
Assuming 8B population
One per Family of 4? One per Person?
Expected Global Cost $100 to $400 Billion
0.1% to 0.4% of the Gross World Product
Funding from Government and Other Stakeholders
Smart Phone Manufacturers
Telecom Service Providers
IT Product and Service Companies
Increase in Economic Activity and Productivity
Expected Payback Time: Less than 1 year
The big elephant in the room is the cost of enabling the global reach of Guardian Angels, getting the right information to every person on the planet! We begin with the assumption that every person on the planet will have access to a free sensor intensive smart phone which in 2014 might cost $200. Assuming a global population of 8 billion and assuming the cost of a feature rich smart phone is about $50, the cost of providing a smart phone to everyone on the planet is about $400 billion. If each family has one smart phone initially then the startup cost can be under $100 billion. These numbers represent 0.1% to 0.4% of gross world product.
Like other essential infrastructures such as water, electricity and roads, a smart phone for everyone on the planet should be treated as necessary infrastructure. In addition to partial funding from governments, other stakeholders should bear some of the initial costs such as smart phone manufacturers, telecom service providers, and IT product and service companies. The resulting increase in economic activity and productivity can be expected to result in the recovery of the entire cost in less than one year.

31. …and Privacy
A Facebook of Guardian Angels Are Able To Share Anonymized Knowledge Using Publish/Subscribe Mechanisms Of Social Networking, and
Enabling Each Guardian Angel to Learn and Predict What Events Are Likely To Impact their Protégé
A Guardian Angel Knows the Location Information of The Protégé at All Times so as to Provide an Alert and/or a Detailed Notification. If Needed, It Must Be Able to Turn-on The Phone.
No Privacy Breach Since Each Guardian Angel only Shares Information Already Known to the Service Provider
A Facebook of Guardian Angels are able to share anonymized knowledge using publish/subscribe mechanisms of social networking and enabling each Guardian Angel to learn and predict what events are likely to impact their owner. No breach of privacy is expected since each Guardian Angel only shares information already known to the service provider suitably anonymized. A Guardian Angel knows the location information of the owner at all times so as to provide alerts and/or a detailed notification. If needed, it must be able to turn-on the phone of the owner to deliver urgent information.

32. Potential Economic Impact of AI 2
Potential Economic Impact of AI 2.0 Emergence of Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) Industry
Every person on the planet will be able to perform many daily habits more effectively using Guardian Angelss
Daily habits (routines, activities) include a wide spectrum from routine tasks (such as banking and travel planning) to tasks too difficult for the user
Over 80% of all human activity will done by Guardian Angelss by 2020
7 Billion People Market Vs 2 Billion Today
Ultimately Humans Could be 10 Times More Efficient and Effective
Global GDP is $100 Trillion
Even 10% improvement will lead to $10T additional wealth creation