1. The Scientific Consensus International Treaties
Climate Change
The Scientific Consensus
International Treaties
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2. The greenhouse effect
Large molecules allow solar radiation in, but not out
Understood since 19th century
Goldilocks phenomenon: Earth is “just right”
Greenhouse gases
CO2, H2O, CH4, O3 (natural and anthropogenic)
CFCs, N2O (anthropogenic)
Difference between warm intervals & ice ages: 6°C
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3. Fundamental Climate Questions
Are CO2 concentrations increasing?
Yes.
Short-term measurements
Long-term: ice core samples
Is this caused by humans?
Yes ppm is natural
Since industrialization, increased to 380 ppm
Is climate changing?
Prior to FCCC, unclear
Since 1996, IPCC consensus is yes.
More dramatically than models predict
Lecture 10 POLS 384

4. IPCC Background: From UNEP & WMO to UNGA Predictions
1995: "The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on the global climate.” [ ° C]
2001: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” [ °C]
2007: “There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities has been one of warming. Evidence shows that natural systems are being affected.” [ °C]
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5. IPCC predictions
CO2 doubling this century >> 1.5°- 8.6° C warming
Sea level rise: cm in 21st C
Could be much larger if Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets melt
More frequent and intense tropical storms
Katrina as indicator of the future
“Climate surprises” inevitable
Ex: Ocean’s thermohaline circulation system
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6. FCCC (1992)
Objective: “stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at safe levels”
Principles
“Common but differentiated responsibility”
Precautionary principle
Cost-effectiveness
Obligations
Annual GHG Inventories
Annex I (IC’s): return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 (nonbinding)
Annex II (western IC’s): financial assistance to DCs
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7. Kyoto Protocol (1997)
6 GHGs covered: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, SF6
Annex I: differentiated GHG reductions totaling 5% from 1990 levels by
U.S. - 7%; EU -8% Aus, Iceland +10%
5 ways to meet obligations
Simply reduce GHG emissions
Enhance sinks (forests)
Emissions trading among Annex I parties
Joint implementation in Annex I parties
Clean Development Mechanism (DCs)
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8. What Kyoto means: 3 versions
Meaningful action
Annex I emissions projected to rise 30% by 2010 over 1990 levels
Symbolic politics
Loopholes will prevent real cuts in GHGs
Stage is set for deeper reductions
Meaningless gesture
To stabilize GHG concentrations, an immediate 70% reduction in GHG emissions is required
…or 90% by 2030
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9. After Kyoto 2001: U.S. withdrawal Bonn surprise (July 2001)
Bush withdrawal galvanized action
Decisions on capacity building in DCs & E. Europe, tech. transfer, joint implementation
Adaptation fund pledged by EU & other ICs
$410 million/year
Russia ratified, bringing Kyoto into force in 2005
Current negotiations: post-2012 reductions
Lecture 10 POLS 384

10. Beyond International Law
Voluntary initiatives
Pew Center: Business Environmental Leadership Council
Public utilities: Seattle City Light
Individuals: Carbon offsetting
Local initiatives
ICLEI: cities & counties in 67 countries, representing 300 million people
U.S. cities: Nickels’ initiative > 50 million
US governors suit against utilities thrown out
CA: levels by 2020; 80% below by 2050
Emissions trading with U.K.
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