1. December GATE Equity Webinar Early Warning Systems
Thank you for joining us for the December GATE Equity Webinar.
Where we explore topics related to equity in graduation success.
This webinar will be recorded and we are working on our process for making our webinars ADA compliant, so stay tuned for recordings.
The PowerPoint is posted on OSPI on the GATE Equity Webinar page if you want to follow along.
Also, we’d like to ask that you direct the questions you want us to answer in the Q&A not the chat, so we can more easily monitor and respond to you. Chat is more for your own commentary. Thank you!
I’m Kefi Andersen, OSPI Graduation Equity Program Supervisor.
Today’s topic is Early Warning Systems.
We are really thrilled that we could get some experts in this field to share their work today. The Everyone Graduates Center is here to talk about their research on Early Warning Systems and how you can use it.
We’re glad you all could be here today to share your expertise.
Exploring topics related to equity in graduation success
Kefi Andersen – OSPI Graduation Equity Program Supervisor
Special guests: Everyone Graduates Center

2. Superintendent Reykdal’s K-12 Education Vision
“The goal of our education system is to prepare all of our students for post- secondary aspirations, careers, and life.”
Superintendent Reykdal ‘s K-12 Vision has three phases — each lasting two years — from small improvements to a full redesign of the K-12 education system. 
Early warning systems are a critical part of school improvement because they use data to close opportunity gaps.
11/7/2018
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

3. Measuring Success Performance Indicators
Measures of Success
Increase four- and five-year high school graduation rates
Increase enrollment and completion rates and decrease remediation rates in post-secondary training and education
Performance Indicators
We must help students:
Enter kindergarten with expected skills in all six areas identified by the Washington Kindergarten Inventory of Developing Skills (WaKIDS).
Meet standard on the 3rd-, 8th-, and 11th-grade statewide English language arts (ELA) and math assessments, and the 8th-grade statewide science assessment.
Grow toward proficiency in ELA and math, as determined by Student Growth Percentiles, in 4th and 6th grades.
Enroll in Algebra I/Integrated Math I by the end of 8th or 9th grade and earn high school credit.
Enroll in college-level courses and earn dual credit.
Take the SAT and ACT and earn college-ready scores.
Access financial aid for post-secondary learning.
We must help students avoid:
9th-grade course failure.
Suspensions and expulsions.
Chronic absenteeism.
Measuring Success
According to a 2014 analysis done by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, we know each graduate creates benefits of more than half a million dollars in higher earnings, as well as societal savings in areas such as health care and unemployment compared to students that don’t graduate.
Early warning systems are built on the ABCs (attendance, behavior, and course work).
These are bourn out in research as high leverage points that predict graduation success.

4. Today’s Topics What are Early Warning Indicators?
Chronic Absenteeism
Discipline
9th Grade Course Failure
What are Early Warning Indicators?
What does research say works?
What are some things you can do to put this research into action?
Our goals for today are to get you familiar with early warning indicators and get some practical advice on some of the nuances of using them for student success from the Everyone Graduates Center. We’ll also give you some resources to help you along the way.
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

5. WA State MTSS Framework
At OSPI we are working on an integrated student supports protocol that will help with implementing a multi-tiered system of supports.
A strong early warning system includes many of the same hallmarks of the MTSS system. So as you are listening today keep in mind that early warning systems are an essential part of the larger ecosystem of an MTSS.
They incorporate data, building capacity and infrastructure for implementation, partnerships, tiered supports, and team driven shared leadership and problem solving.

6. Everyone Graduates Center
Robert Balfanz PHD
Research professor at the Center for the Social Organization of Schools at Johns Hopkins University School of Education
Felicia Walker
School and student support facilitators for the National Student Attendance, Engagement, and Success Center and Talent Development Secondary
Paul Verstraete
Natalie Williams
School Transformation Facilitator at Aki Kurose Middle School, Seattle, WA
We’re lucky to be joined by staff from the Everyone Graduates Center.
Can you each introduce yourself and a little bit about what you do.
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

7. Why We Need Early Warning Systems
There is little work for young adults without a high school degree.
And almost no work to support a family without some post-secondary schooling or training.
As a result entire communities are being cut off from participation in American society and a shot at the American Dream.

8. This Presents Our Schools and Communities With a Big Challenge
Every student – regardless of out-of-school needs, prior levels of school success, and current motivations – needs to graduate from high school prepared to succeed in post-secondary school and training.

9. Grad cap
With a focus on data, EWS is designed to identify those students at-risk, who are signaling through their data, that they are disengaging and may be heading away from that goal of crossing that graduation stage and towards leaving school altogether.

10. 6th Graders (1996-1997) Matriculation and Graduation
This data, known as the ABCs, consists of a student’s attendance, behavior, and course performance, and is able to predict years ahead of time who is in danger. As you can see from this graph, those students with poor attendance, behavior issues, or are failing math or English, those students fall further and further behind and do not end up graduating. This original research done more than a decade ago by today’s featured presenter by the way, has been replicated across the country, from rural to urban schools, and from early elementary to high school showing the importance of good attendance, successful behavior, and effective course performance.

11. Predictors of High School Success
Students who exhibit strong academic behaviors and get good grades are much more likely to succeed in high school and college.
Predictors of High School Success
ACT tested over 14,000 students at 48 postsecondary institutions using ENGAGE College and tracked these students through their college careers.
Results show that ENGAGE is a valid predictor of academic performance and persistence
It provides additional information that more accurately identifies students who are at risk of poor grades and drop out, beyond measures of academic achievement alone
Robbins, Allen, Casillas, Peterson, & Le, 2006; Allen, Robbins, Casillas, & Oh, 2008
Academic behaviors important to student success
Motivation
Social Engagement
Self-Regulation
Enhancing College and Career Readiness and Success: The Role of Academic Behaviors

12. ABC’s of Secondary School Success
Early Indicator
On Path to
Dropping Out
College Ready
Attendance
Miss 20 or more days- 10%
Miss 5 or Fewer
Behavior
Multiple Suspensions
Sustained Mild Misbehavior
Have Self-Management, Regulation, and Advocacy Skills
High on Hope
Course Performance
F’s and D’s
(Failure often driven by not completing/turning in assignments)
B average

13. Triangle Case Management Project Management
From this data we build a system of tiered interventions. This system, taken from the public health model, is the most efficient and impactful method of utilizing scarce resources. From the base, tier 1, and developing a positive school culture through whole school programs and initiatives that effect all students, to the pinnacle of the pyramid where we focus on individual high need students, providing case managed direct support to meet their needs.

14. Case Management and Project Management
Targeted Supports
Project Management
In the middle, tier 2 supports where we take the project management aspect of tier 1 and the case management of tier 3 and group students based on common issues and needs to provide targeted support.

15. People
The final, and in many ways the most important component of an EWS is the people who champion our students. Who work to lead those tier 1 initiatives and targeted supports. Without those champions the data and the interventions are just good ideas.

16. EWS Components
Taken together, these three core components, The ABCs, Tiered Interventions, and Teacher Teams equal an early warning system

17. Effective Early Warning Systems Combine:
Ready access, at the classroom level, to on- and off- track indicators (the ABCs);
Regular time to analyze the data, pool adult knowledge about students, and leverage existing adult-teacher relationships; and
An organized response system that can act upon early warning data in both a systematic and tailored manner.
In order to function well and at the scale needed multi-tiered student support systems need to have ready access to the early warning indicator data at the classroom level. Second, there needs to be a set time when adults can review the data and those adults who know the student can pool their knowledge and determine who currently might be best positioned to talk with and support the student. Finally, the system needs to be able to intervene both at the individual student level in a very customized way and also intervene more broadly at classroom, grade, and school level.

18. Context of Early Warning Systems
Felicia walker

19. Focus Increasing On-track and recovery rates
Increasing promotion rates
The focus of EWS is to…
Increasing Graduation rates

20. Context of Your EWS Data – What is the data saying?
What’s in place? What are you currently doing?
Interventions/Resources – What’s available?
Organizational Structures

21. How do we organize the data into useful information?
How do we respond to the data?
Where do you gather the data? (ABC Sources)
How are you monitoring the data?
What indicators are you monitoring? (ABC) (adds info. For action)
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

22. EWS Data
With all this crazy data we are collecting, we need to turn it into information. We need to single out the data that will support our work and format it in a way that is useful to our teachers.
This formatted data highlights areas of success/challenge. It tells us who is in need of extra support and by how much.
Finally, as we heard earlier this morning, it is predictable. We can look into the future, we can see the more/less likely possibilities that are out there for our kids.
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

23. Resources? What resources do you have in place to address
Attendance? Behavior? Course Performance?
AND
For each tier? Tier 1 ? Tier 2? Tier 3?

24. Interventions – Resource map - A Simple Grid for a Powerful Analysis
Academic Interventions
Attendance
Behavior and Effort
Course Performance
Whole School
Need:
Capacity:
Effectiveness:
Targeted
Intensive
How are they monitored (time, impact, # of students recovered,..)
Why are interventions making an impact?

25. Sample Resource Map Attendance Weekly attendance recognition
Tier I
Whole school
Tier II
Tier III
Most Intensive
Attendance
Weekly attendance recognition
Perfect attendance celebration (monthly)
Team competition for attendance
Check and Connect
Wake up calls
Buddy System with another student
Recognition for improved attendance
Home visit by counselor
Individual contract with student and parent
Behavior
Cardinal Cash (Caught you doing something good)
Freshman Seminar lessons
Academy meetings
Outside Speakers
Peer Mediation group
Daily Behavior contract
In-class interventions (seating, pairing, activity
PREVENTION – Gang intervention group in the neighborhood
Visit one on one with social worker
Individual counselor sessions
Sample Resource Map

26. How Do We Meet around these Indicators?
0-20 students
An individual counselor, social worker, or graduation coach can lead the effort.
20-50 students
A dedicated team of staff members acting as a support team can lead the effort to keep students on track
50+
Grade-level or small learning community teacher teams will need to play a critical role. In some schools, they are organized and supported by a “graduation” or “EWS” coach.

27. EWI Meetings: Meet about Students and ABC Data
Goal: To coordinate and create interventions for students who are exhibiting early warning indicators and to closely monitor their progress so that students are successful.
Leadership teams
EWS Team
Teams of teachers

28. Organizational Structure: Schedule and Teams
Counselor
English Teacher
EWI Facilitator
Teacher Teams/Cohorts
SS Teacher
Exceptional Education
Math Teacher
Science Teacher

29. Connect Students with Adults
Success mentors
Graduation coaches
Check-in approaches
Report card conferences

30. Questions & Polling Are you using an early warning system? Yes Maybe?
Not yet
Feel free to type in the questions box any questions you have as we go.
Dixie or Dave do you want to talk a little bit about how you define an early warning system?
Question | CC 0
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

31. Aki Kurose Middle School Early Warning System Implementation
700 students
Demographics:
Black -- 37%
Asian -- 37%
Latino – 17 %
Multi-Racial – 6 %
White – 3%
Over 26 languages
80% FRL
Located in SE Seattle
Principal Mia Williams in her 10th year of leadership at our school
8th year of partnership with Talent Development Secondary to implement EWS

32. How do we identify students?
1. Start before students enter our building
Receive student data for 5th graders assigned to our school
Identify students with chronic absence and suspensions in 5th grade
2. Create a Master Data Tracker
Flag students who had Early Warning Indicators the previous year
Update regularly with current ABC data and the interventions they receive
3. Use surveys and assessments to supplement ABC data
Scholarcentric Resiliency Assessments
Needs Assessments distributed by counseling department

33. Tiered interventions
Set school wide goals for ABCs then implement and monitor tiered interventions to meet those goals
Create a matrix of tiered supports provided for each of the ABCs
Align all community partners to support the ABC goals

34. A Tiered interventions
School wide attendance initiatives and attendance competitions
Partnership with housing providers
Monthly goal setting in Advisory class
Attendance window
TIER 2:
Success Mentor groups
City Year Focus List
TIER 3:
Case management provided by Communities In Schools
Counselor led truancy intervention
GOAL: All students miss less than 5 absences a semester
ATTENDANCE

35. B Tiered interventions GOAL: Students receive no suspensions BEHAVIOR
Restorative practices
RULER and Social Emotional Learning in advisories
Scholarcentric resiliency assessments & Student needs assessments
Tier 2:
Success Mentor programs
Students tracking ABCs
Students receive mentorship, weekly mentor workshops, and are enrolled in extended learning programs
City Year Behavior Focus Lists
Tier 3
Student Support Plans
School based Mental Health supports  Sound Mental Health & Kaiser Permanente
BEHAVIOR

36. C Tiered Interventions Tiered interventions
GOAL: All students receive a C or higher in all core classes
TIER 1:
Academic goal setting in advisory classes
TIER 2:
Extended Learning for Math and ELA
Break camps and summer learning
Success Mentor Groups
City Year academic focus lists
Counselors monitor “D and E” list and provide targeted follow up
TIER 3:
Student Success Plans to identify further academic intervention
COURSEWORK

37. How do TEACHER TEAMS Use Data?
Grade level teams
Attended by teachers, support staff, counselors and administrators
Use data to build Student Success Plans
ABC data, survey data and teacher collected data based on classroom observation
Plans kept in One Note and follow students through each grade
Use needs assessment & resiliency assessments data to guide targeted classroom strategies
Professional Learning Communities
Grade level content teams, counseling and support staff teams
Use the Data Wise Inquiry Cycle to analyze if students are making progress and if more support is needed
Aki Soaring, Gliding, Diving Protocol
Know students by Story, Strength and Need
Guides instructional design and reteach plans

38. NSAESC (National Student Attendance and Engagement Success Center)
Free ews Technical assistance visits through the us dept of Education’s NSAESC
FREE EWS Technical Assistance Visits Available Through the US Dept of Education’s
NSAESC (National Student Attendance and Engagement Success Center)

39. Questions & Polling
What is one major takeaway you have from Everyone Graduates and Aki Kurose?
Let’s learn together:
Type it in the chat box – share your thought.
Take a moment to reflect. After hearing all this great information, what is one major takeaway you have from Aki Kurose and the Everyone Graduates Center?
If you’re willing to share, we’d love to see your thoughts, just type in the chat.
Also, feel free to type questions in the questions box for our presenters.
Question | CC 0
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

40. Survey Tell us how we’re doing: http://bit.ly/GATEevaluation
| CC00
Tell us how we’re doing:
We got some great responses last month from our evaluations.
We are trying to constantly improve our performance. In an effort to capture your comments over time we’ve created a quick survey. Please help us by taking a minute to fill it out. If the webinar closes out, this link is also available in our Zoom reminders so you can always let us know your thoughts. We appreciate our audience and want to improve this experience for all of you.
We’ll put this link in the chat for you also.
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

41. Sunnyside’s Early Warning System: Precision through Data
Want More Webinar?
Sunnyside’s Early Warning System: Precision through Data
This Afternoon!
1:00-2:00 p.m.
Register:
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OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

42. Systematically Building Capacity
Next Month
Systematically Building Capacity
January 10, 2017
10 a.m. – 11 a.m.
Join us next month as we take a look at how you can systematically build capacity.
Thanks for joining us today and we’ll see you next month!
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018

43. Creative Commons Images Used
Except where otherwise noted, this work by the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction is licensed under a Creative Commons 4.0 International License.
We like to give credit where it is due. If you liked an image from GATE Equity Webinar, we use images that are in the creative commons or are tagged with their individual permissions.
Thanks for joining us today and we’ll see you next month!
OFFICE OF SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION
11/7/2018