1. Perceptions Poll

2. This is an accuracy rate of 93.4%
Q1:
Of 20,155 accepted Federal efile returns in Colorado, how many were incorrect? 13
133
1,336
This is an accuracy rate of 93.4%

3. What the Error Rate Means
The return was submitted (and accepted) and was wrong
Not a reject rate
Based on statistical sampling
The actual number for Colorado is unknown (why?)
What does 93.4% accuracy rate mean?
We did well?
One perspective: About 1,336 of our clients could get a letter
Another perspective

4. What the Error Rate REALLY Means
End Result
Return is right
QR reviews a correct return
Return is right
Return is right
These two paths result in an accuracy rate of 93.4%
Counselor prepares a return
Return is right
Return is right
QR reviews an incorrect return
Return is wrong
This path results in an error rate of 6.6%
Return is wrong
Return is wrong

5. What the Error Rate REALLY Means
End Result
Probability
QR reviews a correct return
p = 1.0
Return is right
p = 1 – Pe
p = (1 – Pe)(1 + Pe)
Counselor prepares a return
= 0.934
p = 1 – Pe
Return is right
QR reviews an incorrect return
p = Pe
p = Pe
p = (Pe)2
Return is wrong
= 0.066
Pe is the probability that the Counselor makes an error or the QR review misses an error

6. What the Error Rate REALLY Means
Pe = 0.257
This is a 1 in 4 error rate!
If the QR has a lower error rate, then the error rate for the Counselor must go up!
Suppose the QR error rate is half that of the Counselor
Then Pe = 0.363, or 1 in 3!
Why is our error rate so bad?

7. One in three LC/SCO was new to their job
Q2:
Of 68 LCs and SCOs in Colorado in 2017, how many were new to their position? 13 23 33
One in three LC/SCO was new to their job

8. What the Numbers Mean Turnover of LCs and SCOs is high
1 in 3 is new in any given year
Take care of your people – train them in their job
LCs and SCOs are candidates for your district management team
Or to become the DC when the time comes!

9. Q3:
Which error is observed most often during IRS Quality Statistical Sample (QSS) reviews?
Not all volunteers have completed the SOC training and signed Form 13615
D143 is not posted at the site
Tax returns are not filed in a timely manner

10. What this Result Means Not always the case that the D143 is not posted
D143 is out of date
Posted in an inconspicuous place
Posted incorrectly
The simplest requirements are the ones most often missed
Simple wrongs are still wrong

11. Conclusions