1. Map Review
Richard Grotjahn

14. Differential PVA over LA, KY, IL
Differential PVA over Dakotas into western Great Lakes
Possible PVA over ID and western WY

15. WAA: Eastern Great lakes south ward, almost to gulf coast.
WAA: off west coast, maybe on shore.
Cold front from MI to east TX, warm front from MI to just S of Cape Cod. Harder to spot front in west, comes onshore near OR/CA border.

21. Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL
Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL. A little west of a plume of moisture.
AR extending towards SF Bay area.

22. LCH morning sounding

24. Between 12z and ‘now’: Satellite loops
IR:
TPW

25. ‘current’ conditions http://hint.fm/wind/ Shows convergence
Shows convergence
& upslope regions

26. New Orleans, 7 Feb 2017

28. NAM/AVN 6hr P (12hr) performance
Imagine the transition between the obs radar maps (upper pair)
Vs The 6 hr totals for two models below.
GFS has band in NW OR that NAM misses. NAM has too much in N. CA & GFS a bit better. So, maybe GFS slightly better with storm in the west coast.
Both models do ok we N. Rockies upslope.
GFS too much in LA, NAM better there. But GFS has SC that NAM misses.
NAM – 6 hr total
GFS – 6hr total

29. The End

30. Notes Differential PVA over LA, KY, IL
Differential PVA over Dakotas into western Great Lakes
Possible PVA over ID and western WY
WAA: Eastern Great lakes south ward, almost to gulf coast.
WAA: off west coast, maybe on shore.
Cold front from MI to east TX, warm front from MI to just S of Cape Cod. Harder to spot front in west, comes onshore near OR/CA border.
Higher CAPE over lower Ms river valley up into IL. A little west of a plume of moisture.
AR extending towards SF Bay area.