1. Day 2 Tuesday! Warm-Up… Quickwrite…
(If you did not do the Homework) Write your own example for each of the different probability assignments
Intuition
Relative Frequency
Formula
Quickwrite…
If you could change the color of your eyes, what would you change them to? Why?
Ex: “If I could change the color of my eyes, I would change them to __________ because ______________________.”

2. Compare and Explain… your Warm-Up starting with Student #2 (1 min)
Write your own example for each of the different probability assignments
Intuition
Relative Frequency
Formula

3. Round Robin…
starting with the student with the driest clothes at your table (1 min)
If you could change the color of your eyes, what would you change them to? Why?
Ex: “If I could change the color of my eyes, I would change them to __________ because ______________________.”

4. Basic rules of Probability

5. Law of Large Numbers
The underlying assumption we make is that if events occurred a certain percentage of times in the past, they will occur about the same percentage of times in the future
The law of large numbers is the reason businesses such as health insurance, automobile insurance, and gambling casinos can exist and make a profit
To determine the possible outcomes for a given setting, we need to define a statistical experiment

6. What is a Statistical Experiment?

7. Example: Eye Color

8. Example: Eye Color
Human eye color is controlled by a single pair of genes (one from the father and one from the mother) called a genotype
Brown eye color, B, is dominant over blue eye color,
Therefore, in the genotype B , consisting of one brown gene B and one blue gene , the brown gene dominates
A person with a B genotype has brown eyes.

9. Example: Eye Color
If both parents have brown eyes and have genotype B , what is the probability that their child will have blue eyes? What is the probability the child will have brown eyes?
According to genetics theory, the four possible genotypes for the child are equally likely
Eye Color Genotypes for Child

10. Example: Eye Color
Therefore, we can use the Formula for Equally Likely Outcomes to compute probabilities
Blue eyes can occur only with the genotype, so there is only one outcome favorable to blue eyes
Brown eyes occur with the three remaining genotypes: BB, B , and B

11. Practice

12. The Sum of Probabilities
We can use this fact to determine the probability that an event will not occur
For instance, if we think the probability is 0.65 that we will win a tennis match, we assume the probability is 0.35 that the opponent will win
The complement of an event A is the event that A does NOT occur: we use the notation Ac

13. Event A and Its Complement Ac

14. Example: Complement of an Event
The probability that a college student who has not received a flu shot will get the flu is 0.45
What is the probability that a college student will not get the flu if the student has not had the flu shot?
In this case, we have P (will get flu) = 0.45
P (will not get flu) = 1 – P (will get flu)
= 1 – 0.45
= 0.55

15. Practice

16. Probability Related to Statistics

17. Homework