1. Present and Future Activities on the North West Shelf
Susan Wijffels | Dynamic Ocean Theme Leader
For the WfO team
Wealth from oceans national research flagship

2. Summary
CSIRO is working in the Northwest across a broad range of areas
Oceans and climate from decadal through daily processes
Biogeochemical and carbon cycling
Ecosystem characterisation, function, dynamics and biodiversity including human impacts
Future
Would like to see more synthesis across disciplines
Data scarcity remains a huge challenge
Target development of modelling/prediction systems initially based on those deployed in other regions (BlueLink/eReefs) but tailored for this unique region
Improved ocean information systems and services for government, public and industry

3. Large-Scale Modes of Atmosphere-Ocean Variability
Indonesian Throughflow
Decadal Variability
Monsoons
Intraseasonal Variability
El Niño – Southern Oscillation
Indian Ocean Dipole
Biogeochemical Cycling
Southern Annular Mode

4. Mean Flow Field

5. On interannual time scales – remote winds control the ocean structure in this region

6. To manage
these regions
we need to know the
large-scale influences
(plus regional information,
e.g. continental
shelf processes):

7. International INSTANT Project Australia,USA,France,Indonesia,Netherlands

8. Indonesian Throughflow Flow variability with depth
Surface layers and deep layers are decoupled and forced differently

9. Ocean response to Tropical Cyclones
CSIRO’s fully non-linear, 3-D hydrodynamic model, SHOC, is used to study the ocean response to Tropical Cyclones on the NWS
Surface currents and temperature response to Tropical Cyclone Bobby is shown
This ppt slide has a file the movie is played from. The .AVI file has to be in the same folder as the power point presentation. Minimum text given, Madeleine happy to give more info if needed
The movie should be set to loop until stopped.
Madeleine Cahill and Peter Craig,CSIRO
For Woodside

10. IMOS Indonesian Though Flow shelf array: IMOS/AIMS/CSIRO
The 4 shelf mooring of ITF, 2 more go in the Timor Trough and 1 in Ombai Strait north of Timor Leste. Deployed June 2010

11. FRDC – management implication of climate change on fisheries in Western Australia WA Department of Fisheries, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship
Objectives
Assess future climate change effects on Western Australia marine environments using a suite of IPCC model projections, downscaled to the key shelf regions and the spatial and temporal scales relevant for key fisheries
Examine the modeled shelf climate change scenarios on fisheries and implications of historic and future climate change effects
Projected changes in winter chlorophyll concentration
Downscaling model
Climate model
A weakened Leeuwin Current and lower eddy energetics in the 2060’s cause WA waters to be less productive

12. Caring for Our Country
Identifying threats to marine biodiversity of the Ningaloo World Heritage Area
A collaboration between:
CSIRO
Status of World Heritage Values: reef fish, sharks, turtles
Movement and habitat use of iconic megafauna
DEC
Status of World Heritage Values: reef fish
DoF
Distribution and intensity of fishing effort
It is funded by the Commonwealth through the Caring for Our Country program
It is a collaboration between CSIRO and the state departments DEC (Department of Environment and Conservation) and DoF (Department of Fisheries).
Broadly, the project aims to assess the condition of some of the key World Heritage Values (reef fish, sharks and turtles) and also assess some of the threats to these values.

13. Pilbara Marine Conservation Partnership
Goals
Regional scale assessment of condition and threats to biodiversity; coral reef health, benthos, fish and sharks,
Better understand variations in coral reef health and resilience in context of key environmental drivers; habitat/biodiversity, oceanographic connectivity, climate change, fishing pressure, nutrient supply, cyclones
Enhance net conservation benefits to globally significant coral reef systems, detect medium and long term trends.
Project commenced late 2012, first tasks to map biodiversity and connectivity now being conducted by CSIRO
Ok this is the single slide for the so-called NCB project. I say that because Chevron don’t want us to call it the Gorgon NCB program, Gorgon is their project and its probably better to call it the Pilbara Marine conservation partnership anyway since it makes it clearer that we are at arms length from industry and all funds come thru government with ‘no strings attached’.
Its kind of difficult to fit into one slide but the goal of the program is to conduct studies of ecosystem dynamics on coral reefs in this region in order to understand how they respond to environmental drivers such as those mentioned above. Rather than arbitrarily pick these reefs we are going to study reefs that represent areas subjected to different levels of stress and disturbance and also stratify these by level of larval connectivity and biodiversity zone. Thus we are doing the regional scale biodiversity characterization and connectivity first, then beginning the reef studies. The program will form part of long-term ecological monitoring networks in the state that provide feedback on management to DEC WA fisheries, and potentially others. The NCB funding program is supposed to run for 30+ years, so we are hoping to prove how useful our approach can be and build this into a long-term series of observations.
The biodiversity sampling slide on the left is a representation of the way that environmental layers are used to classify environments. This is combined with known biodiversity information to produce a map that estimates how well we understand biodiversity across the region. Areas with lots of uncertainty are then prioritised for the sampling program. This method has been applied to Australia’s east coast from Torres Strait to the southern limit of the GBR.
Ming will speak to the connectivity modelling work as part of the symposium. He is using a ROMS model
Systematic biodiversity sampling
Connectivity modelling

14. CSIRO CARBON CLUSTER ACTIVITIES
Objectives
carbon inventory information on sources, speciation, stocks and flows
process understanding of changes in carbon cycling resulting from natural and anthropogenic change
Activities
Carbon sequestration, stoichiometry and stores potential of representative Australian coastal ecosystems
Benthic community metabolism and benthic-pelagic coupling
Pelagic community metabolism in Australian coastal waters
Scaling up to regional inventories and data assimilation and Parameter and Model Uncertainties
Evaluate organic and inorganic carbon stocks, nutrient stoichiometry, characterise isotopic C signatures and derive rates of accumulation in seagrass meadows, mangrove forests and salt-marshes through synthesis of existing data and data collected in expeditions.
Estimate atmospheric exchange at representative sites.
used to underpin assessment of sequestration potential, ecosystem status and vulnerability.

15. Activities in NW
Oceans Institute through Carlos will have a focus in NW on carbon sequestration in seagrass, mangroves and sediment
Some work on pelagic C subject to Southern Surveyor cruise being approved (P. Thompson)
CC would like access to carbon relevant data collected under WAMSI and other projects
CSIRO activities will be principally around the development of better models, assimilation and scaling methods, and economic assessment

16. NW shelf Management Strategies revisited
Previous large scale effects of fish trawling project (Sainsbury 1987,88)
CSIRO-WA Fisheries proposal
“Recovery after trawling: Resurveying the North West Shelf after 25 years of sustainable trawling”
Different spatial fishing zoning systems
Natural experiment to determine impacts and recovery
Original work:
Sainsbury, K. J. (1988) The ecological basis of multispecies fisheries, and management of a demersal fishery in tropical Australia. in Fish Population Dynamics (2nd edition), pp J. A. Gulland (ed). John Wiley and Sons, Lond.
Sainsbury, K.J. (1987) Assessment and Management of the demersal fishery on the continental shelf of north-western Australia. pp in J. J. Polovina and S.R. Ralston (eds) Tropical Snappers and Groupers: Biology and Fisheries Management. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.
The principal objective of the North West Shelf Joint Environmental Management Study was to develop and demonstrate practical and science-based methods that support integrated regional planning and management of marine ecosystems to achieve ecologically sustainable development.
Proposal not successful, but still of interest for both parties but with a broader MMU view
Source: WA Fisheries

17. Summary
CSIRO is working in the Northwest across a broad range of areas
Oceans and climate from decadal through daily processes
Biogeochemical and carbon cycling
Ecosystem characterisation, function, dynamics and biodiversity
Future
Would like to see more synthesis across disciplines
Data scarcity remains a huge challenge
Target tailored modelling/prediction systems initially based on those deployed in other regions (BlueLink/eReefs)
Improved ocean information systems and services for government, public and industry

18. eReefs
The key R&D partners -BoM, CSIRO AIMS Goal is to build 1. A framework to explore and predict the impact of multiple factors such as climate change (ocean temperature and pH) and water quality (nutrients, chlorophyll, turbidity) 2. An interactive, visual picture of the reef and its component parts, accessible to all.

19. What would it take to start building a similar framework/tool for the NWS?

20. Thank you
Contributors: Andy Steven, Russ Babcock, Matt VanderKlift, Peter Thompson, Ming Feng, Andreas Schiller,
Wealth from Oceans
Susan Wijffels Theme Leader
The Dynamic Ocean
Wealth from oceans national research flagship

21. Integrated Project 2: the basics
Hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modeling using fully coupled models Quantification of benthic and pelagic productivity Sources of nutrients and the importance of benthic/pelagic coupling Ecological connectivity Catchment-ocean interactions – Regions of freshwater Influence Climate impacts Trophodynamic interactions Transport and fate of nutrients and other potential contaminants from dredging and oil spills
Presentation title | Presenter name