1. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Challenges and Opportunities in Achieving the National Postsecondary Degree Attainment Goals
Equity & Excellence Project (EEP) Meeting
Washington, DC
May 7, 2018
Michael T. Nettles Ph.D.,
Senior Vice-President, ETS

2. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Today’s Presentation
What are the degree attainment goals?
Why do the attainment goals matter?
How many more degrees do we need to reach the goals?
When is the population projected to achieve the goals?
What can we do to accelerate progress?
Copyright © 2018 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. ETS, the ETS logo and MEASURING THE POWER OF LEARNING, are registered trademarks of Educational Testing Service (ETS).

3. National Degree Attainment Goals
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
National Degree Attainment Goals
Federal Government
By 2020
60% of 25 to 34 year olds will have earned an associate’s or bachelor’s degree
Set in 2009
Lumina Foundation
By 2025
60% of 25 to 64 year olds will have earned a high-quality postsecondary degree or credential

4. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Equity and Excellence Project (EEP) State Postsecondary Goals Slight Variations by Percentage, Age Cohort, and Target Year
State
Postsecondary Goal
Colorado
Increase the number of Coloradans aged who hold high-quality postsecondary credentials (degrees or certificates) to 66% by 2025 as well as reduce attainment gaps among students from underserved communities
Florida
55% of Floridians ages to hold a degree or postsecondary certificate by the year 2025. 
Illinois
60% of year olds will have a college degree by 2025
Indiana
Increase higher education attainment of adults to 60% of Indiana’s population by 2025
Kentucky
Increase educational attainment level of Kentuckians between years old with certificates or degrees to 58% by 2025
Louisiana
Increase educational attainment of adult citizens (bachelor’s and associate degrees, and certificates and diplomas) to 42% by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 7.2%
Source: Lumina Foundation and State websites.

5. State Postsecondary Goals (continued)
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
State Postsecondary Goals (continued)
State
Postsecondary Goal
Massachusetts
60% of adults ages have an associate or bachelor's degree by 2025
Minnesota
Increase to at least 70% by 2025 the number of Minnesota residents ages years who hold postsecondary degrees or certificates
Ohio
65% of working age Ohioans with a postsecondary certificate or degree by 2025
New York
Use Lumina goal: 60% of year olds will have earned a high-quality postsecondary degree or credential by 2025
Pennsylvania
60% of Pennsylvanians with a postsecondary degree or credential by 2025
Tennessee
“Drive to 55” – 55% of Tennesseans earning an associate’s degree or higher by 2025
Texas
“60x30TX” - By 2030, at least 60% of Texans ages will have a certificate or degree
Wisconsin
“60 Forward” –Increase Wisconsin’s postsecondary attainment rate to 60% by 2027
Source: Lumina Foundation and state websites.

6. Why do the attainment goals matter?
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Why do the attainment goals matter?

7. Where We Start Group U.S. 25-34 Year-old Population
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Where We Start
Group
U.S Year-old Population
(Federal) Degree Attainment Rate (2014)
U.S Year-old Population
(Lumina) Degree
Attainment Rate (2014)
Overall Population
42.3
40.4
African American
29.0
29.3
Amer. Indian/Alaskan Native
21.0
23.6
Asian
68.4
60.8
Hispanic
21.9
21.1
White
49.6
45.7
Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator:
Note: American Indian/Alaska Native data not available in Maryland due to small sample size.

8. Why College Degrees Matter
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Why College Degrees Matter
11/8/2018
Overall Unemployment Representation Declines with College Degree Attainment
Group
Total Unemployment Rate year olds
Rate with
High School Diploma or Equivalent,
25-34 year olds
Rate with Bachelor's degree, year olds
U.S. Population
5.5 (100)
8.1 (100)
2.7 (100)
African American
11.1 (25.2)
14.9 (29.2)
4.5 (14.8)
Asian
3.6 (4.4)
4.7 (2.2)
3.2 (11.3)
Hispanic
6.3 (22.6)
7.5 (23.9)
3.5 (13.2)
White
4.1 (43.7)
(40)
2.3 (58.8)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Using 2015 Current Population Survey (Unpublished).

9. How many more degrees to reach the goals?
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
How many more degrees to reach the goals?

10. What Will It Take to Reach 60%? Federal Goal (25-34 year olds by 2020)
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
What Will It Take to Reach 60%? Federal Goal (25-34 year olds by 2020)
Group
Current population
Current number of degrees
Percentage of increase needed
to reach goal
Projected degrees required
U.S. Population
43,279,253
18,303,530
53.7%
28,133,962
African American
5,665,337
1,641,948
141.8%
3,970,801
Men
2,705,664
632,967
212.8%
1,979,791
Women
2,959,673
1,008,981
97.3%
1,991,011
Amer. Ind./Alask. Nat
285,226
59,806
281.2%
227,974
141,407
24,770
368.3%
115,998
143,735
35,036
219.6%
111,976
Asian
2,875,013
1,967,630 -
1,364,706
903,830
1,510,307
1,063,800
Hispanic
8,448,047
1,850,721
222.2%
5,963,548
4,423,827
803,988
295.0%
3,175,436
4,024,220
1,046,733
166.4%
2,788,111
White
24,638,335
12,217,260
24.2%
15,172,409
12,466,227
5,513,330
40.0%
7,720,028
12,172,108
6,703,930
11.2%
7,452,380
Data are from U.S. Census Bureau; 2025 population is from National Population Projections 2014, Table 1,  American Community Survey 2014, IPUMS Online Tabulator, 

11. What Will it Take to Reach 60%? Lumina Goal (25-64 year olds by 2025)
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
What Will it Take to Reach 60%? Lumina Goal (25-64 year olds by 2025)
Group
Current Population
Current number of degrees
Percentage of increase needed
to reach goal
Projected degrees required
U.S. Population
167,593,630
67,741,740
55.6%
37,656,718
African American
20,625,035
6,045,664
125.0%
7,555,699
Men
9,677,566
2,391,462
173.3%
4,143,667
Women
10,947,469
3,654,199
93.4%
3,412,033
Amer. Ind./Alask. Nat
1,085,821
256,707
200.6%
514,971
526,029
106,434
258.9%
275,534
559,792
150,273
159.3%
239,437
Asian
9,915,284
6,025,788 -
4,614,565
2,824,398
5,300,719
3,201,390
Hispanic
26,294,580
5,550,903
280.4%
15,565,478
13,360,946
2,467,322
344.7%
8,505,187
12,933,634
3,083,581
229.0%
7,060,291
White
105,869,394
48,371,917
23.6%
11,428,078
52,737,247
22,530,188
33.1%
7,451,984
53,132,147
25,841,729
15.4%
3,976,094
Data are from U.S. Census Bureau; 2020 population is from National Population Projections 2014, Table 1,  American Community Survey 2014, IPUMS Online Tabulator, 

12. When is the population projected to achieve the goals?
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
When is the population projected to achieve the goals?
U.S. and Profiles of Maryland, New York & Indiana

13. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Overall The Nation Will Reach 60% by 2041, Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Progress Towards The Federal Government’s Goal (25-34 Year-olds)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2025 Population are from National Population Projections 2014: Downloadable Files, Table 1. Retrieved 06/24/2015 from
Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator:

14. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
The Nation Will Reach 60% by 2056, Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future Progress Towards Lumina Foundation’s Goal (25-64 Year-olds)
65%
65%
ETS Research Report Series 14 AUG 2017 DOI: /ets

15. State Level Degree Attainment Projection: Maryland
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
State Level Degree Attainment Projection: Maryland
Population Projections Available by Race/Ethnicity

16. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
U.S. Projected to Increase at a Much Faster Rate than Maryland Progress Towards MD’s 55% by 2025 Goal (25-64 Year-olds)
Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. Maryland degree attainment projections derived from 2015 American Community Survey and Maryland Department of Planning, Projections and State Data Center:
Notes: Maryland population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available.

17. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
MD Progress Toward 55% Degree Attainment by 2025: Some Race/Ethnic Groups Will Not Reach the Goal in the Foreseeable Future (25-64 Year-olds)
Percent
Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections Maryland degree attainment projections derived from 2015 American Community Survey and Maryland Department of Planning, Projections and State Data Center:
Notes: Maryland population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available.

18. Younger Generation in Maryland is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S.
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Younger Generation in Maryland is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S.
Source: American Community Survey, 2014 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator:
Note: American Indian/Alaska Native data not available in Maryland due to small sample size.

19. State Level Degree Attainment Projection: New York
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
State Level Degree Attainment Projection: New York
Only Aggregate State Population Projections Available

20. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Overall New York Will Reach 60% by 2026 Progress Towards Federal Goal (25-34 Year-olds)
Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. New York degree attainment projections derived from 2016 American Community Survey and New York Department of Labor:
Notes: New York overall population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available. Projections by subpopulations are not available.
U.S. Population Degree Attainment Projections used time horizons, while NY use time horizons.

21. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Overall New York Will Reach 60% by 2036 Progress Towards Lumina Foundation’s Goal (25-64 Year-olds)
Sources: U.S. degree attainment projections derived from the 2014 American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections. New York degree attainment projections derived from 2016 American Community Survey and New York Department of Labor:
Notes: New York overall population projections are available in 5 year increments (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), therefore population totals were estimated for years in which data were not available. Projections by subpopulations are not available.
U.S. Population Degree Attainment Projections used time horizons, while NY use time horizons.

22. Indiana Degree Attainment 2016
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
Indiana Degree Attainment 2016
No Projection: State Data not Disaggregated by Race/Ethnicity or Modeled Age Cohort

23. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Younger Generation in Indiana is Losing Ground Compared to the U.S. (2016)
Age Cohort
U.S
Overall Degree Attainment
Indiana
U.S.
White Pop. Attainment
White Pop Attainment
African American Pop. Attainment
Asian Pop. Attainment
Hispanic Pop. Attainment
25-34
44.0%
39.8%
51.0%
43.0%
30.3%
22.7%
70.8%
62.5%
24.5%
21.4%
35-44
44.4%
41.2%
51.4%
43.7%
34.9%
32.9%
68.7%
53.4%
22.4%
22.9%
Cohort Gap
-0.4%
-1.4%
-0.8%
-4.6%
-10.2%
2.1%
9.1%
-1.5%
45-54
40.7%
36.5%
45.8%
38.0%
30.6%
29.7%
57.5%
56.3%
21.6%
17.0%
55-64
31.9%
41.7%
32.8%
27.0%
24.2%
48.3%
56.8%
20.3%
14.9%
Source: American Community Survey, 2016 ACS, IPUMS Online Tabulator:

24. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
What Can We Do?
My Suggestions

25. Develop Agenda To Accelerate Degree Attainment Progress
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Develop Agenda To Accelerate Degree Attainment Progress
Continue work to close achievement gaps
Racial and socio-economic status (SES) disparities in academic achievement persist
Advocate for disaggregated data, so that gaps can be identified and monitored

26. What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.)
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.)
Focus on college stop-outs
36 million individuals have some college, but no degree
34.7% of total population enrolling in 4-year colleges and universities do not complete a bachelor’s degree in 6 years
Increase enrollment of recent high school graduates
Nationally, 66% of high school graduates enter a 2 or 4-year college within a year of high school graduation

27. What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.)
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
What Can We Do? Develop Agenda (Cont.)
Raise preparation to match high expectations of K-12 students
62% of 9th graders overall indicate that they expect to earn at least an associate’s degree
Need to improve college preparation (next report)
Federal and state governments can create matching funds for colleges that serve underrepresented populations for these purposes:
Strengthening faculty
Providing student scholarships
Build infrastructure to support mission and growth

28. Elevating Student Achievement Through College Series
Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Elevating Student Achievement Through College Series
Part I
Part II
Part III

29. Nettles: Equity & Excellence Project Meeting, May 2018
11/8/2018
Conversation
Copyright © 2018 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. ETS, the ETS logo and MEASURING THE POWER OF LEARNING, are registered trademarks of Educational Testing Service (ETS).