1. Data analysis – From Support to Illumination
08/11/2018
Data analysis – From Support to Illumination
Paul Bosman
SWIM/Enterprise Architecture Unit Manager
Eurocontrol
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2. Agenda Todays usage of ATM Data Trying to apply Data science to ATM
Some further reflections

3. Lets start with a question How wise are we today in ATM ?
08/11/2018
Lets start with a question How wise are we today in ATM ?
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4. … as a drunken man uses lamp-posts
08/11/2018
Usage of data in ATM
… as a drunken man uses lamp-posts
...for support rather than illumination
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5. Data in ATM – NOTAM Example
08/11/2018
Data in ATM – NOTAM Example
E) NDB HB U/S DUE WIP. IAP NDB(L)DME RWY 04 AND LLZ/DME NDB(L) RWY 22 ARE TEMP WITHDRAWN. ACFT WILL BE RADAR VECTORED TO ILS APCH RWY 22 OR LOC/DME RWY 04 OR VISUAL FINAL. IN THE EVENT OF A MISSED APCH ON EITHER RWY, CLIMB STRAIGHT AHEAD TO 3000FT QNH OR AS INSTRUCTED BY RADAR. IN THE EVENT OF BELFAST RADAR BEING UNAVAILABLE, ALDERGROVE RADAR WILL VECTOR ACFT TO LOC RWY 04 SUBJECT TO WORKLOAD. AS PER ALTERNATIVE PUBLISHED APCH PROC, ACFT MAY WHEN APPROVED, SELF POSITION TO FINALS RWY 22/04 VIA DME ARC, ROUTEING TOWARDS VOR BEL FM EITHER NELBO, RINGA OR NEVRI UNTIL INTERCEPTING THE DME ARC. ACFT JOINING VIA BLACA SHOULD CONTINUE ON TRACK MAGEE THEN LEAVE MAGEE TRACK 255 AND ESTABLISH ON THE RWY 22 LOC AT DME 11.5 I-BFH, THEN AS DIRECTED. FOR RWY 04 AFTER PASSING MAGEE ESTABLISH ON THE DME 11 ARC RWY 04 HB QDM022 CAN BE SUBSTITUTED BY BEL DME RWY 22 HB QDM245 CAN BE SUBSTITUTED BY BEL R085. MISSED APPROACH RWY 22:- CLIMB TO 3000FT, INITIALLY STRAIGHT AHEAD TO 3000FT OR I-BFH D9, WHICHEVER IS EARLIER, THEN LEFT TURN ON TRACK 005 TO INTERCEPT ON BEL R075 OUTBOUND TO MAGEE, OR AS INSTRUCTED. MISSED APPROACH RWY 04:- CLIMB TO 3000FT INITIALLY STRAIGHT AHEAD TO INTERCEPT AND ESTABLISH ON THE BEL R075 OUTBOUND TO MAGEE, OR AS INSTRUCTED. THESE INSTRUCTIONS SHALL ALSO APPLY IN THE EVENT OF A RTF DURING A MISSED APCH. THEREAFTER COMPLY WITH STANDARD RTF PROCEDURE. FROM: 29 MAY :05 TO: 31 OCT :30 A1656/09
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6. Data usage in ATM Pre-flight Information Bulletin (PIB)
08/11/2018
Data usage in ATM
Pre-flight
Information
Bulletin (PIB)
International NOTAM
trends (source EAD)
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7. So again - How wise are we today in ATM ?
08/11/2018
So again - How wise are we today in ATM ?
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8. How did we get into this situation ?
08/11/2018
How did we get into this situation ?
And more importantly –
How do we get out of this situation ?
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9. Can Data science get us out of this situation ?
08/11/2018
Can Data science get us out of this situation ?
From
Data science is a multi-disciplinary endeavor combining a range of skills from a variety of fields. Specifically the field is at the intersection of different disciplines: complexity science, statistical physics, network theory, data mining, knowledge discovery, computer science, indexing techniques, stream data processing, data evaluation environments, scalable analytics, visualization and, very importantly, strong domain expertise.
The application of data science principles to the aviation sector can open the gate to significant improvements in many other key aspects of aviation such as safety management, flight efficiency, environmental-impact mitigation or delay reduction.
Following now are some trials to
create new operational concepts
based on Data Science
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10. What if ? took over ATM ? Search Part of SWIM Drive CS E.g. ICAO-IATA
08/11/2018
What if ?
took over ATM ?
Search
Part of SWIM
Drive CS
Translate
E.g. ICAO-IATA
Codes ?
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11. So, lets put a monetary value on ATM services
08/11/2018
What if ?
took over ATM ?
So, lets put a monetary value on ATM services
E.g. Airport / ATC slots
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12. What if ? took over ATM ? ’[EFB] …10 Pilots like you
08/11/2018
What if ?
took over ATM ?
’[EFB] …10 Pilots like you
took a wrong taxiway on
this runway last week’
What Other Customers Are
Looking At Right Now …
Customers Who Bought This
Item Also Bought …
’… meteo induced costs
are over 900MEUR/year. How
prepared are we ?’
’…applied to Pilot Briefing,
Traffic/meteo,
Forecast,
ATC (ATIS/…) ?’
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13. Data science helping ATM – A real life example
Problem
Can En-route WakeVortex be predicted ?
Available Data
Flight Data
Weather Data
Wake Vortex Models
Validation
Wake Turbulence Reports
Initial answer = YES
Can we have more of this ? Or
Are these Big data appls more
for CDM/planning than execution ?

14. What is the problem that we are trying to solve ?
08/11/2018
What is the problem that we are trying to solve ?
Many different actors
ATC, NM, Airlines, Airports, Military, …. Pax, … Meteo,…
All driving their own optimizations/adding constraints
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15. BUT The future is bright … From Draft SESAR 2 – Work Programme
08/11/2018
The future is bright …
From Draft SESAR 2 – Work Programme
‘... resilience systems in a highly automated environment …’
‘…ensuring cyber security in an automated environment …’
‘… Data Science as a multi-disciplinary endeavour blending skills at the intersection of different scientific domains such as statistical physics, network theory or complexity theory, with different techniques from computer science, like data mining, data indexing and visualization, and scalable analytics…’
BUT
NB: Future of distributed consistent systems
Brewers theorem & SES: Consistency – Availability – Partition (CAP)
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16. ATM is a system with limited ‘capacity’
Do we know where we are for the ATM system?

17. Are we reaching the ‘capacity’ limits of the ATM system?
If so, what are we supposed to do?
Exhaust all potential capacity increments with better data / information / knowledge / wisdom management? But, how much would such increments represent and at which cost?
We need to better understand the ATM as a system and its ‘limits’, the factors that influence these limits and determine different optimization solutions and their impact on the stakeholders.
=> change in the status-quo, ‘political’ agreements may be required.

18. Data science will be much
Data science v2.0
Agree on Penalties
Simulate a stable situation : Traffic patterns, Meteo, Aircraft types
Measure impact of parameters such as
# flights, Flight plan schedules, Cruising levels, City pairs, ...
Aircraft type, Meteo, Fiff modes of transport, …
Start mixing them
Determine system response incl bottlenecks
Data science will be much
required !!

19. Conclusion The road to illumination is long & windy
08/11/2018
Conclusion
The road to illumination is long & windy
Many questions, less answers
Ready for more pragmatic Data science applications
Long term solutions will require some real work !
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20. Epilogue Digital NOTAMs Digital Briefing Digital Business Rules Data
E) NDB HB U/S DUE WIP. IAP NDB(L)DME RWY 04 AND LLZ/DME NDB(L) RWY 22 ARE TEMP WITHDRAWN. ACFT WILL BE RADAR VECTORED TO ILS APCH RWY 22 OR LOC/DME RWY 04 OR VISUAL FINAL. IN THE EVENT OF A MISSED APCH ON EITHER RWY, CLIMB STRAIGHT AHEAD TO 3000FT QNH OR AS INSTRUCTED BY RADAR. IN THE EVENT OF BELFAST RADAR BEING UNAVAILABLE, ALDERGROVE RADAR WILL VECTOR ACFT TO LOC RWY 04 SUBJECT TO WORKLOAD. AS PER ALTERNATIVE PUBLISHED APCH PROC, ACFT MAY WHEN APPROVED, SELF POSITION TO FINALS RWY 22/04 VIA DME ARC, ROUTEING TOWARDS VOR BEL FM EITHER NELBO, RINGA OR NEVRI UNTIL INTERCEPTING THE DME ARC. ACFT JOINING VIA BLACA SHOULD CONTINUE ON TRACK MAGEE THEN LEAVE MAGEE TRACK 255 AND ESTABLISH ON THE RWY 22 LOC AT DME 11.5 I-BFH, THEN AS DIRECTED. FOR RWY 04 AFTER PASSING MAGEE ESTABLISH ON THE DME 11 ARC RWY 04 HB QDM022 CAN BE SUBSTITUTED BY BEL DME RWY 22 HB QDM245 CAN BE SUBSTITUTED BY BEL R085. MISSED APPROACH RWY 22:- CLIMB TO 3000FT, INITIALLY STRAIGHT AHEAD TO 3000FT OR I-BFH D9, WHICHEVER IS EARLIER, THEN LEFT TURN ON TRACK 005 TO INTERCEPT ON BEL R075 OUTBOUND TO MAGEE, OR AS INSTRUCTED. MISSED APPROACH RWY 04:- CLIMB TO 3000FT INITIALLY STRAIGHT AHEAD TO INTERCEPT AND ESTABLISH ON THE BEL R075 OUTBOUND TO MAGEE, OR AS INSTRUCTED. THESE INSTRUCTIONS SHALL ALSO APPLY IN THE EVENT OF A RTF DURING A MISSED APCH. THEREAFTER COMPLY WITH STANDARD RTF PROCEDURE. FROM: 29 MAY :05 TO: 31 OCT :30 A1656/09
Epilogue
Digital NOTAMs
Digital Briefing
Digital Business Rules
Data
Presentation
Process flow
Business knowledge

21. 08/11/2018
Contact Information
EUROCONTROL
Click here to access the NOP B2B
SESAR Joint Undertaking
Data Exchange models
Aviation Information Data Exchange
AIXM - Aeronautical Information Exchange Model
WXXM – Weather Information Exchange Model
FIXM - Flight Information Exchange Model
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