1. Religion and Population Change in Northern Ireland
Brad Campbell
Queen’s University Belfast
Geography

2. Context NI built on the foundations of religious demography.
Two-thirds Protestant.
Protestants have relied on the ‘natural demographic safety valve’.
High Catholic fertility counteracted by high levels of emigration
Since the 1970’s, the minority Catholic population has grown.
Stimulated discussions over NI’s constitutional future.
Academic research has used aggregated data to estimate fertility, mortality and migration differentials.
Higher Catholic fertility, Protestant out-migration, higher aggregate Protestant mortality.

3. Long Term Religious Change

4. Long Term Religious Change
NI has become progressively more religiously plural.
No religious community dominates in the younger birth cohorts.

5. Long Term Religious Change
Protestant and Catholic communities are converging.
In 2011, both religions are found in almost equal numbers.

6. Methodology
Birth registration data
Death registration data

7. Demographic Balancing Equation=
Population Change
Births - deaths
Into – Out of Religion
In – out migration + +

8. Population Change 01-11
Absolute population change
2001
2011
Change
Count %
Catholic
182193
40.4
196352
40.7
14159
0.3
Protestant
211575
46.9
204736
42.4
-6839
-4.5
Other
1223
3676
0.8
2453
0.5
Non-Religious
56285
12.5
78000
16.2
21715
3.7
451276
482764
31488
Relative population change
Protestant decline is having the greatest impact on the population.
Catholic population marginally grew.
Significant population growth by other religious groups.

9. Components of Change
Component
Catholic
Protestant
Other
None
Natural Change
Net Migration
Net Conversions
100
-100
Catholic growing from natural change and immigration.
Protestant decline caused by people leaving the faith and NI.
Other faiths growing from new arrivals to NI and new religious converts.
Non-Religious growth evenly distributed across the three components.

10. Entering NILS Study
Count %
Into Sample
Catholic
Protestant
Other
None
Births
25845
20486
351
11147
42.8
39.1
10.9
19.1
Immigration
24385
13193
1418
16004
40.3
25.1
44.1
27.5
Into Religion
10209
18779
1447
31059
16.9
35.8
45.0
53.4
Total
60439
52458
3216
58210
100.0
Catholic community benefiting from a higher fertility and immigration.
Protestants benefiting from births and religious conversions.
Other religions gaining NILS members joining through conversions and immigration.
Non-Religious community benefiting from conversions and immigration.

11. Leaving NILS Study Catholics members leaving through emigration.
Count %
Out of Sample
Catholic
Protestant
Other
None
Deaths
12209
21872 49
3586
26.4
36.9
6.4
9.8
Emigration
20070
15299
392
8068
43.4
25.8
51.4
22.1
Out of Religion
14001
22126
322
24841
30.3
37.3
42.2
68.1
Total
46280
59297
763
36495
100
Catholics members leaving through emigration.
Protestant members departing study through leaving the faith and deaths.
Other religions losing members through emigration and religious conversions.
Non-religious losing a large number through people becoming religious.

12. Identity Change
Generally, people maintain their religious identity over time.
Slightly more Catholics becoming Protestants than Protestants becoming Catholics.
Greater number of Protestants becoming non- religious than Catholics.
Difference lower than what would be expected
A larger number of people transferring back into Protestantism from non-religious
Religious Change
Count
Stable Catholic
135913
Catholic-Protestant
1086
Catholic-Other
134
Catholic-None
11078
Catholic-NA
1703
Stable Protestant
152278
Protestant-Catholic
906
Protestant-Other
770
Protestant-None
19218
Protestant-NA
1232
Stable Other
460
Other-Catholic 31
Other-Protestant 52
Other-None
226
Other-NA 13
Stable None
19790
None-Catholic
7627
None-Protestant
16382
None-Other
532
None-NA
300
Stable NA *
NA-Catholic
1645
NA-Protestant
1259
NA-Other 11
NA-None
537
* cell count of less than 10

13. Conclusion NI is becoming religiously plural
No one community is likely to dominate the other.
Protestant decline not solely the result of lower fertility.
Catholic grew from natural change but immigration from A8 countries also played an important role.
Non-religious community experienced growth from all three demographic drivers.
Likely to lead to sustainable population growth in the future.
As NI’s fastest growing community, ‘other religions’ grew from immigration and identity changes.
Likely that natural change will play a greater role in the future as new arrivals settle and have children.

14. Acknowledgements
‘The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.’