1. sustainable development
climate change and
sustainable development
Julian Morris
Vice President for Research, The Reason Foundation

2. Overview A question of morality What is “sustainable development”?
What are the likely impacts of climate change?
How to address climate change in a way that is consistent with sustainable development:
Addressing today’s problems first
Promoting economic development
A question of morality

3. Sustainable Development is …
“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
Brundtland Commission, 1997

4. Likely Impacts of Climate Change
Hypothesised Impact
Evidence?
Increased precipitation
YES
Increased incidence of storms, hurricanes ?
Increased rate of reduction in glaciers
Increased rate of sea-level rise
More hot days, fewer cold days
Increased disease NO
Change in ranges of species

5. Is cutting carbon emissions a sensible way to address climate change?
Assumes:
1. IPCC SAR Median warming scenario
2. Kyoto restrictions applied until 2100
Source: Lomborg 2001

6. Adapting to Change Problem Adaptive Responses Malaria, dengue, etc.
Pesticides, air conditioning
Diarrhoeal diseases
Clean water, sanitation
Flooding – increased precipitation
Flood barriers, houses on stilts, migration
Heat exhaustion – increase in hot days
Fans, air conditioning, building structures
Crop damage – aridity
New crop varieties (GM)
Change in ranges of species
Improved incentives for sustainable management

7. Overall, Wealthier is Healthier
Data: World Bank

8. Wealth and Access to Potable Water
Data: World Bank

9. Economic Growth
Data: Angus Maddison

10. Falling Proportion of Poor
Source: Martin Wolf

11. Technology, Trade and Health

12. Improvements in Nutrition 1960 - 2000

13. As GDP Rises, Deaths from Extreme Weather Events Fall
Data: EM-DAT, World Bank

14. => Rising Life Expectancy

15. if we are really serious about reducing all these problems, our focus should not be on reducing climate change, or even, for the most part, on addressing the problems directly. instead, our focus should be on enabling economic development

16. But with carbon control …
Resources will be diverted into lower-carbon technologies – and away from other technologies and wealth enhancing activities.
Carbon control legitimises the imposition of the very barriers that currently hold people in poor countries back!
So, people in the future will be less wealthy, will continue to suffer diseases, drought and other problems that would likely otherwise be solved.

17. Indoor Air Pollution in India
In 2001, more than two thirds of the Indian population relied on “biomass” fuels.
Sources: Indian Council of Medical Research & Census of India 2001

18. Annual Deaths from IAP (2000)
Children Under 5 (Thousands)
Total (Thousands)
India
290
420
China 50
World
910
1,600
Source: WHO

19. Is it morally defensible to divert money, human effort and other resources away from real problems that exist today and from investments that might enable our descendants to adapt to a changing world?

20. Contact me: julian.morris@reason.org