1. Disturbances to Propagation
CQ DX, CQ DX
Ok, where’d everybody go?
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

2. Agenda Quick look at recent Cycle 24 activity
Review WWV format & SWPC home page
Disturbances - the big picture
Disturbances - their impact to real-world operating
Review of auroral oval images
This presentation will be on the PVRC website
visit
click on the ‘PVRC Webinars’ link at the top
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

3. Quick Look at Recent Cycle 24 Activity
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

4. Cycle 24 - Region 1029
Sunspot Region 1029 rotated into view on October 23
It became the biggest active region of the year 
It produced ten C-class solar flares from October
That more than tripled the number of C-class flares (three) previously detected in all of 2009.
It helped 15m for CQ WW SSB
K9LA Multi-Two worked 91 countries on 15m
It rotated out of view on October 31
Region 1029 viewed on 27 October 2009
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

5. Millstone Hill Ionosonde
Region 1029 rotated into view
Early October was ‘iffy’ for 15m for those of us in the Midwest
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

6. Things May Be Picking Up
Smoothed sunspot number
Nov
Dec (NOAA prediction)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mar09 ???
Mar09 smoothed sunspot number will be available when the Nov09 monthly mean data is collected
Nov09 is 4.4 so far
Monthly Mean
Oct09 10
Sep09 5
Monthly mean – average of the daily sunspot number over a month’s period
Smoothed sunspot number – average of monthly means using data from six months behind to 6 months ahead of desired month
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

7. Even More Activity Region 1029 persisted and came around again
Rotated into view on November 14
But it fizzled out 
Region 1030 produced some activity
Region 1031 also produced some activity
Two more regions numbered on November 18: 1032 and 1033
More sunspots! 
Hopefully this activity will continue so that the November 2009 monthly mean sunspot number will be higher than the October 2009 monthly mean sunspot number
Which will result in the March 2009 smoothed sunspot number being higher than the April 2009 smoothed sunspot number
Result of increased solar activity is more disturbances to propagation
And that’s the topic of tonight’s discussion
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

8. Review WWV Format & SWPC Home Page
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

9. “New” WWV Format Changed on March 12, 2002 Three sections
Current indices
Summary of past 24 hours
Forecast for next 24 hours
More specific in terms of disturbances to propagation
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

10. Sample Report Solar terrestrial indices for 23 May follow
Solar flux 180 and mid-latitude A-index 43
The mid-latitude K-index at 1500 UTC on May 24 was 1
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred
Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurred
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

11. SWPC Home Page
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

12. G, S, and R G refers to Geomagnetic Storms
Caused by gusts in solar wind from CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and high speed streams from coronal holes
Can cause auroral absorption, auroral-E, depleted F region ionization
S refers to Solar Radiation Storms
Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares
Can increase D region absorption in the polar cap (PCA)
R refers to Radio Blackouts
Caused by electromagnetic radiation from big solar flares
X-ray flares (.1-1 nm wavelengths) of X or M class
Can increase D region absorption on daylight side of Earth
For all three, scale is 1 to 5
1 is minor and 5 is extreme, and correspond to specific criteria
Details at
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

13. Disturbances – the Big Picture
X-ray radiation from solar flare – absorption on the daylight side of the Earth
Protons from solar flare – absorption in the polar cap
X marks the spot – the North magnetic pole X
Geomagnetic storms – depressed F region MUFs at high and mid latitudes both day and night
Geomagnetic storms – auroral absorption, auroral ionization
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

14. Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Track a Geomagnetic Storm and Look at W4ZV Contest Log
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

15. CME at Coronagraph
from LASCO on SOHO
Coronagraph is a telescope with an occulting disk to block out the Sun
LASCO = Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph
SOHO = Solar and Heliospheric Observatory is about 2.4 million miles from Earth on the line to the Sun
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
A ‘halo’ event means the CME explosion is seen all around the occulting disk, which indicates it is headed toward Earth
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

16. CME at ACE
from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer)
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002
The ACE satellite is sitting ~ 1,000,000 miles from Earth on the line to the Sun
Shock wave took about 30 hours to get to the ACE satellite – 92,000,000 miles in 30 hours is 532 km/sec
Southward IMF (what the first dial measures) usually means trouble
Normal speed is ~ 400 km/sec
Dynamic pressure is particle density times the square of the speed
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

17. CME at Earth – K Indices
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002
elevated K indices
Usually takes 30 minutes to 1 hour for shock wave to get from ACE to Earth
May May May 24
Meanook (Canada) K indices
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

18. CME at Earth - Ionosphere
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
result of elevated K indices
elevated K indices
May May May 24
May May May 24
MUF(3000)F2 at mid-latitude
Meanook (Canada) K indices
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

19. W4ZV WPX CW 2002
W4ZV set single-op 10m record in planned to make a run at it in 2002
Halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 – 10m propagation to EU was poor
details of this event are in the March 2003 issue of CQ
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

20. “Real-Time” View of F Region Depletion
result of CME
CME on Monday Sep 30, storm hit Earth on Tuesday Oct 1
Higher bands took big dip due to F2 region depletion
SSNe available at
Also see July/August 2003 NCJ for more on SSNe
SSNe uses F2 model of the ionosphere
Varies sunspot number to make model agree with real-time ionosonde data
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

21. Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Track a Solar Radiation Storm (no log data)
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

22. Solar Radiation Storm at GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
Proton flux
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

23. Solar Radiation Storm at Earth
May May May 24
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
riometer absorption
Proton flux
( relative ionospheric opacity meter )
Energetic protons are fast, so the ionosphere could be affected in an hour or two
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

24. Solar Radiation Storm at Earth
May May May 24
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
riometer absorption
Proton flux
May May May 24
increased absorption
Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)
MUF(3000)F2 at high latitude – so much D region absorption that ionosonde can’t “see” the F2 region
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

25. Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World Operating Look at Impact of Radio Blackout on ZF2RR Contest Log (can’t track Radio Blackout because we have no warning – electromagnetic radiation from solar flare arrives at same time as visual indication of solar flare)
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

26. Radio Blackout on 10m
X4.0 flare at 1638 UTC
X1.9 flare at 1836 UTC
looking for mults
Dan N9XX/ZF2RR single band 10m low power – if it wasn’t for the solar flares, he probably would have broken the North America Low Power record
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

27. Summary
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

28. G, S, R G = Geomagnetic Storm S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs)
Caused by CMEs and coronal holes
CMEs most prevalent around solar maximum
Coronal holes most prevalent on decline
S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs)
Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares
Most prevalent around solar maximum
R = Radio Blackout
Caused by electromagnetic radiation at X-ray wavelengths from big solar flares
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

29. Impact In order of “least” impact to “most” impact
Radio blackout (R)
No warning, but usually short duration – an hour or two
Lower frequencies impacted longer
Only affects daylight side of Earth
Solar radiation Storm (S)
A couple hours warning, can last a day or two
Only affects propagation across the polar cap
Geomagnetic Storm (G)
A day or two warning, can last for days
Affects high and mid latitude ionosphere both day and night
In general we want G, S, R rating to be 1 or less
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

30. Caveat Are all geomagnetic storms bad? -- NO -- VHFer’s love them!
And gradually evolving storms, driven by slowly increasing southward IMF, can increase nighttime low latitude F region ionization
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

31. Review of Auroral Oval Images
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

32.
Each pass estimates total power into polar area - pull 1 of 10 canned pictures
Black dots and solid black lines indicate electron energy and flux, respectively
Detector measures particles up to ~20 KeV (down to 100km & cause visible aurora)
Higher energy electrons that get down to D region are not measured
These pictures do not directly tell us anything about absorption or auroral-E
The colors indicate where visual aurora may occur, with orange indicating high probability
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

33. Where Are the Problems? same night, same time (evening in the Midwest)
DMSP photo (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program)
Kp=4
same night, same time (evening in the Midwest)
Bright discrete auroral forms - lots of E region ionization
Absorption usually equatorward of these discrete forms
For more details, visit mysite.verizon.net/k9la, click on the General link, and read A Look Inside the Auroral Zone
Auroral zone is not necessarily full of ionization that degrades HF
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

34. Q & A
This PowerPoint presentation (without audio) is at
And stay tuned for another K9LA PVRC presentation in mid December: 160m Propagation
PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA