4. Human-driven
Human-driven
Connected/autonomous

5. CAV
Value to User
Business Model
Service Model

6. U.S. Experience with Ride-hail (Uber/Lyft)
What’s happening?
How different or innovative?
Road forward

7. Rapid growth in Taxi/TNC ridership
Ridership by end of 2018:
Taxi/TNC billion
Local bus billion
Urban rail billion
(Annual rate)
+34%
+23%
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

8. Declining Transit Ridership
( )
Credit: Christopher Yuen, blog post on Human Transit

9. Trips Concentrated in Large, Dense Metro Areas
TNC Trips
Population
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

10. … especially downtown Lyft pick-ups in San Francisco Bay Area
October 2017
Source: Transpo Group, “San Francisco Bay Area Congestion Report,” August 2018.

11. … especially downtown New York Chicago Seattle
Sources: Shared Use Mobility Center, “Broadening Understanding,” SFCTA “TNCs Today,” Schaller “Unsustainable?”

12. … at peak hour Chicago San Francisco
Lyft pick-ups, by time of day and day of week, October 2017.
Source: Transpo Group, “Chicago Congestion Report,” and “San Francisco Bay Area Congestion Report,” August 2018.

13. TNC user characteristics
Affluent
Educated
Skew younger

14. Large Growth in Vehicle Miles …
TNCs added 976 million miles of driving to New York City streets since Schaller Consulting report
“Ride-hailing is likely adding vehicle miles traveled in [seven] major cities.”
Clewlow and Mishra, UC-Davis
TNC usage increased vehicle miles traveled by 85% in the Denver area
- Alejandro Henao, Ph.D. dissertation
Most VMT “generated by TNCs occurs during AM and PM peak hours … likely exacerbating existing peak period congestion.”
S.F. County Transportation Authority
“Ride-hailing is adding new auto trips … [and] exacerbating congestion on the region’s roadways.”
Boston-area planning agency

15. Add to driving on city streets …
even with shared trips

16. Why use TNCs Avoid drinking and driving Parking expensive/difficult
Auto users
Parking expensive/difficult
Reliability/comfort/easy payment
Taxi users
Transit inconvenient
A number of user surveys have profiled why people elect to use TNCs. For car owners, the main reasons are to avoid drinking and driving and the cost and hassle of parking. This means that conversion from personal vehicles tends to be late at night (the peak hour for TNC use in some towns is when the bars close at midnight), and in dense areas with limited parking.
Other main reasons to use TNCs – applying to cities large and small – involve availability of alternate modes (transit and one’s own car), and time, weather and comfort.
Although not the main focus of this presentation, these results raise questions about why those using their personal vehicles during the daytime where parking is cheap and easy (most auto travel in the U.S.) would be interested in switching to shared autonomous vehicles.
Quicker/more reliable
Transit users
More comfortable
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

17. Why use TNCs Avoid drinking and driving Parking expensive/difficult
Auto users
40% would use personal auto or taxi if TNC not available
Parking expensive/difficult
Reliability/comfort/easy payment
Taxi users
Transit inconvenient
A number of user surveys have profiled why people elect to use TNCs. For car owners, the main reasons are to avoid drinking and driving and the cost and hassle of parking. This means that conversion from personal vehicles tends to be late at night (the peak hour for TNC use in some towns is when the bars close at midnight), and in dense areas with limited parking.
Other main reasons to use TNCs – applying to cities large and small – involve availability of alternate modes (transit and one’s own car), and time, weather and comfort.
Although not the main focus of this presentation, these results raise questions about why those using their personal vehicles during the daytime where parking is cheap and easy (most auto travel in the U.S.) would be interested in switching to shared autonomous vehicles.
60% would use transit, walk, bike, not make trip if TNC not available
Quicker/more reliable
Transit users
More comfortable
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

18. TNCs draw from same pool as transit (not getting around by personal vehicle)
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.

19. U.S. Experience with Ride-hail (Uber/Lyft)
What’s happening?
How different or innovative?
Road forward

20. Shared Collaborative New business model New service model
Vision and Reality
Shared
Collaborative
New business model
New service model

21. Shared - sequential Vision and Reality Ride-hail: 100% Car Share: 100%
Bike Share: 100%
Room Share
(Airbnb): %

22. Shared - concurrent Vision and Reality Ride-hail: 10-25% Car Share: 0%
Bike Share: 0%
Room Share
(Airbnb): %

23. Collaborative Vision and Reality Defined:
Two-sided consumer role which goes beyond the classic notion of a buyer/consumer
Replaced by peer-to-peer sharing, lending, trading, renting, bartering, gifting, and swapping

24. Peer-to-peer Seller/buyer Vision and Reality Turo (car rental) Uber
Getaround (car rental)
Lyft
Maven (car rental)
Zipcar
Airbnb
Airbnb
Homestay (home rental)
Vacasa (home rental)
Couchsurfing
TaskRabbit

25. Peer-to-peer Seller/buyer Vision and Reality Turo (car rental) Uber
Getaround (car rental)
Lyft
Maven (car rental)
Zipcar
Airbnb
Airbnb
Homestay (home rental)
Vacasa (home rental)
Couchsurfing
TaskRabbit

27. Trucking, Aviation & other industries
New business model
Trucking, Aviation & other industries
Taxis
Ride-hail
Branding and customer interface
National brand
Portable app
Financial
Venture capital subsidized
Operations
Variable pricing
Sophisticated algorithms
Automated call-taking
Automated payment
Part-day drivers
Shared trips
Regulatory
Statewide operations
Company sets fare
Company vets drivers
Operations
Drivers provide vehicles
Drivers independent contractors
Automated dispatch
Smartphone apps
Execution

28. U.S. Experience with Ride-hail (Uber/Lyft)
What’s happening?
How different or innovative?
Road forward

29. Moving toward shared, straight-line, subsidized
Straight line (minimize turns)
Walk to pick-up location Uber Express POOL and Lyft Shared Rides
Public and private contracts: Via and Chariot
Adding more options
Bike share
Dockless electric scooters

30. Taxi Transit Door-to-door, mostly exclusive ride
Straight line routes, shared and subsidized

31. Using CAV technology
Make high-capacity transit fast, frequent and reliable and universal wherever needed
Supplement with 4-20 passenger vehicles

32. Evolve from today Shuttles Feeders to transit
Integrated service and fares
Increase mainline frequency and then capacity
Give priority
Dedicated street space
Signal timing
Ban conflicts (turns)
Take the friction out of the transfer

33. Make transit Best way to get around town

34. Neil Postman (1998) on technological change:

35. Neil Postman (1998) on technological change:
We always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price.

36. Neil Postman (1998) on technological change:
We always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price.
There are always winners and losers

37. Neil Postman (1998) on technological change:
We always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price.
There are always winners and losers
Technological change is not additive; it is ecological, which means, it changes everything and is, therefore, too important to be left entirely in the hands of Bill Gates.

38. Neil Postman (1998) on technological change:
We always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price.
There are always winners and losers
Technological change is not additive; it is ecological, which means, it changes everything and is, therefore, too important to be left entirely in the hands of Bill Gates.