1. North Carolina’s NCLB Pilot Growth Model
A Two-Year Review
American Educational Research Association
March 25, 2008
Gary L. Williamson, Ph.D.
Accountability Services Division
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2. In the Beginning …
USED request for proposals in the school year
Estimated 40 schools would have benefited in
However, did not apply USED imposed constraints
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3. Basics of NC Growth Model for AYP
Use difference between initial test score and proficiency score three years later to set trajectory (Note – this is different from growth method used for ABCs.)
Student must be proficient within four years in state-tested grades
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4. Basics of NC AYP Growth Model
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5. Statewide AYP Results 2005-06 School Year
2,300+ Schools, 115 LEAs
Approximately 45% schools made AYP
299 schools in Title I School Improvement for
64 LEAs in District Improvement for
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6. Results of NC Pilot 2005-06 School Year
NO school went from not making AYP to making AYP based on growth model
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7. Results of NC Pilot 2005-06 School Year
Four schools each had one subgroup meet a proficiency target based on the growth model
Economically Disadvantaged Students met the reading target in two schools
“All students” group met the reading target (in one school) and the math target (in one school)
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8. Statewide AYP Results 2006-07 School Year
2,350+ Schools, 115 LEAs
Approximately 45% schools made AYP
456 schools in Title I School Improvement for
60 LEAs in District Improvement for
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9. Results of NC Pilot 2006-07 School Year
12 schools went from not making AYP to making AYP based on growth model
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10. Results of NC Pilot 2006-07 School Year
10 of the 12 schools also used safe harbor and/or confidence interval in addition to growth model
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11. Results
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12. Thoughts on NC USED – Approved AYP Growth Model
Growth model not a panacea to solve “all or nothing” NCLB model
Lots of work for little perceived benefit
The application of safe harbor and the use of confidence intervals effaced the “benefits” of the growth model
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13. Thoughts on Situation
NC asked USED to allow use of confidence interval after applying AYP growth for – it was denied
Two different growth models is confusing to schools and public…but so are safe harbor, AMOs, confidence intervals etc.
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14. Thoughts on Situation
Students with disabilities taking alternate assessments were not included in growth – tests not on the same scale
How much growth is enough?
How much time to get to proficiency?
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15. For More Information See link(s) at: http://www.ncpublicschools.org/
accountability/reporting/abc/ /
and/or contact
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