Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017:

Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics
Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017: Lecture 03-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

Lecture probably ends here
Outline Briefly discuss this week's readings Summary re Linear Judgment Models 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics: Richard Thaler Overview of the Heuristics & Biases Movement Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic Availability Heuristic Lecture probably ends here Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Discuss Readings

Readings from Smart Choices
Smart Choices Assigned in Week 1: Ch 1 (Making smart choices) Assigned this Week: Ch 10 (Psychological traps) Chapter 1 is an introduction to practical decision making Chapter 10 is a quick survey of how heuristic reasoning can negatively impact practical decision making Quickly skim the entire Smart Choices book to get a general idea of how it approaches decision making. Readings from HD and TFS Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Readings from HD and TFS for Week 3
The main issues are: What is heuristic reasoning? Anchoring & adjustment heuristic Availability heuristic Hastie & Dawes (HD) Ch 4: Anchoring and adjustment; Ch 5: Judging heuristically (availability) Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (TFS), pp Ch 10: The law of small numbers; Ch 11: Anchors; Ch 12: The science of availability; Ch 13: Availability, emotion and risk Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Mention TFS Chapters 1 - 9, Why Haven't They Been Discussed in Lecture?

Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Assigned Weeks but no lecture up to now. At least skim it to see the assumptions re cognitive processes. I will lecture on these topics later in the course. Your understanding will grow over time. Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Relevant (but Not Required) Reading re Availability Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Relevant (but Not Required) Reading
I will be discussing the following papers in lecture. You will be responsible for what is discussed in lecture, but not the details from the papers. Ross, M., Sicoly, F. (1979). Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, Distributed as a pdf file on the course website. Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klump, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61(2), Distributed as a pdf file on the course website. Reminder How Discussion of Linear Judgment Models Is Related to Heuristics & Biases Program . Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Importance of Linear Models in the Psychology of Judgment
1960 – 1980: Provided strong evidence that human judgment had difficulty processing complex information. Gave momentum to the heuristics & biases movement. 1990 – present: Continued study of linear judgment models provides evidence for the value of heuristic reasoning. Example: The less-is-more effect. Gigerenzer & Brighton (2009). When sample sizes are small, unit weighting (tallying) model out-performs multiple regression. Why? Because regression weights have high variance when sample sizes are small. Accuracy-Effort Tradeoff (Diagram) Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Accuracy-Effort Tradeoff
Accuracy High Effort High Method 1: Multiple regression applied to existing data. Method 2: Multiple regression applied to a judge’s predictions Method 3: Importance weighting method Method 4: Unit weighting model Method 0: Intuitive judgment (holistic judgment). Accuracy Low Effort Low Same Slide with Note re Less-Is-More Effect Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Accuracy-Effort Tradeoff
Accuracy High Effort High Method 1: Multiple regression applied to existing data. Method 2: Multiple regression applied to a judge’s predictions Method 3: Importance weighting method Method 4: Unit weighting model Method 0: Intuitive judgment (holistic judgment). Less-Is-More Effect contradicts the claim that there is an accuracy-effort tradeoff. Sometimes less effort produces greater accuracy (Gigerenzer & ABC Group) Current issues: Are heuristics always bad (maladaptive)? When are they good and when are they bad? What are the psychological mechanisms on which heuristics are based? Accuracy Low Effort Low Digression: Richard Thaler Wins 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

2017 Nobel Price in Economics: Richard Thaler
Richard Thaler: One of the creators of the field of behavioral economics Teaches at U of Chicago business school. Undergrad: Case Western Reserve Ph.D. in economics: U of Rochester Books: Nudge; Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics The Winner's Curse See Psych 466 website, Week 3, for links to related articles. Other JDM winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics Daniel Kahneman Herbert Simon Nobel Nobel 1978 * Thaler images is cropped version of d:\p466\images\thaler_2.jpg. From Seattle Times < Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Intro to Heuristics and Biases

Heuristics & Biases Movement
Linear judgment models – part of the critique of human judgment. Not usually regarded as part of the heuristics and biases movement. Heuristics & Biases Movement (H&B movement) Claim: Human cognition does not follow the pattern of a rational agent model. (Rational model = expected utility theory & Bayesian decision model) Claim: Human reasoning uses heuristics that are often effective, but heuristics can lead to systematic errors. Claim: Understanding the cognitive mechanism will lead us to understand why people use the heuristics that they use. Digression: What is a Heuristic? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

What is a Heuristic? A heuristic is a reasoning strategy that is used to solve a problem, make a decision or form a judgment about something. Original meaning: A heuristic is a strategy that leads to insight, discovery and learning. Example: To decide whether Option A is better than Option B E.g., Decide whether to buy a new smart phone with special features. Heuristic #1: Assume that various specific situations prevail – Is A better than B in these situations? Heuristic #2: Ask people who chose A how they feel about their choice? Do the same for Option B. Example of a heuristic: If you lose something, mentally retrace your path to find where you have lost it. Example of a heuristic: In mathematics, when trying to prove a general theorem, first try to prove a simpler special case. Same Slide with Expanded Description of Heuristic Strategies Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

What is a Heuristic? (cont.)
A heuristic is a reasoning strategy that is used to solve a problem, make a decision or form a judgment about something. Heuristic strategies .... .... are often fast and effective, .... place low demands on cognitive resources. .... but they can lead to errors in particular situations. Observed patterns of errors can be used to diagnose the heuristics that people use. Heuristic reasoning strategies are contrasted with optimal computations and algorithms. Example of a heuristic: If you lose something, mentally retrace your path to find where you have lost it. Example of a heuristic: In mathematics, when trying to prove a general theorem, first try to prove a simpler special case. Classroom Experiment: Rainfall in Miami Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Next: Classroom Demonstration of Anchoring and Adjustment
Skip this demonstration because class is small, but remind the students how it works (skim through it). Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Condition 1 of Classroom Experiment

Classic Example of AA Strategy
Ask 50% of the class to close their eyes. In a moment we will switch the group that has their eyes open. Condition 1 of 2 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Condition 1: AA Experiment
Is the average yearly rainfall in Miami (Florida) greater or less than 2 inches per year? (2 inches = 5.1 centimeters) Now write down your best guess as to the average yearly rainfall in Miami (Write number in inches or centimeters, whichever is more familiar to you.) Switch Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Switch Roles If you previously had your eyes open, close them now.
If you previously had your eyes closed, open them now. Condition 2 of 2 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Condition 2: AA Experiment
Is the average yearly rainfall in Miami (Florida) greater or less than 600 inches per year? (600 inches = 1524 centimeters) Now write down your best guess as to the average yearly rainfall in Miami (Write number in inches or centimeters, whichever is more familiar to you.) * Highest rainfall in the world is a place in India that receives 467 inches per year (1,187 centimeters per year) Open Your Eyes Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Everyone Can Open Their Eyes
Summary of Conditions 1 and 2 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Questions Asked in Conditions 1 and 2
Is the average yearly rainfall in Miami (Florida) greater or less than …. Now write down your best guess as to the average yearly rainfall in Miami. JM: Write down students' estimates on the blackboard. Condition 1 2 inches/year Condition inches/year Typical Finding for this Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Typical Finding in Anchoring & Adjustment (AA) Experiment
Initially Consider Initially Consider 2 Inches as a Possibility 600 inches as a Possibility Final Estimate < Final Estimate Final estimate is biased towards the "anchor" (the number in the first question) FYI: CurrentResults.com states that the average yearly rainfall in Miami is inches per year (157.2 cm/year). Average yearly rainfall in Seattle is 37.7 inches (95.8 cm). Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic - Definition Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic
Step 1: Consider an initial estimate of the quantity you are trying to judge. This is the “anchor.” (People often know that this initial estimate isn't perfectly accurate.) Step 2: Adjust the initial estimate in the direction that corrects for assumed sources of error. Psychological Fact: Adjustments are typically too small! Result: Final judgment is overly influenced by the anchor, i.e., the final estimate is biased towards the anchor. Example: TV adds that ask you to guess whether you need to pay, e.g., $150 for a new set of Ginzu knives. Example of the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Another Example of Anchoring-and-Adjustment
Judgment Problem: Suppose you are trying to estimate how many hours per week you will have to study if you take a famously difficult course. People consider an initial estimate that is easy to produce. E.g., begin with an estimate of the hours per week of a typical course. Call this the initial estimate. To produce a final estimate, adjust the initial estimate to a higher number based on the expected course difficulty. Prediction: This cognitive strategy will underestimate the hours per week because the anchor is lower than the true number of hours, and adjustments are typically too small. Other Examples of Anchoring and Adjustment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

More Examples of Anchoring and Adjustment
Example: Suppose a biased or unreliable news source tells you that something extreme will happen, e.g, next year 50% of retail banks will fail. You don’t trust this news source, so you adjust the estimate from 50% to something you think is more realistic, but your adjustment will typically be too small. Example: Bargaining with seller. Suppose you want to buy a useful but ordinary rug. Under usual circumstances, you would be willing to pay $100 for the rug. Suppose the seller says that he will sell the rug for $500. What is your counter offer? EXAMPLES MENTIONED IN HASTIE & DAWES: * Examples of anchoring on self: Subjects were asked whether they were willing to do an outrageous act, e.g., wear a sandwich board that says "Repent!" on campus, and were asked what percentage of other undergrads would agree to do the act. Those who agreed to do the act predicted that 63% of undergrads would do the act, and those who refused to do the act predicted that 23% of undergrads would do the act. * Example: Voters expect that disproportionately many other voters share their own opinions. Example of Anchoring & Adjustment: False Consensus Effect Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Anchoring & Adjustment and the False Consensus Effect
Example: Suppose you are asked whether many people believe X or many people feel X. E.g., What proportion of Americans favor repeal of Obama care (Affordable Care Act)? Hypothesis: People often anchor on their own opinions and values and then adjust to take into account other people’s differences. Consequence: We tend to expect others to be more like ourselves than they are. Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Lee Ross on the False Consensus Effect
Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13(3), Subjects were asked: Question 1: Are you willing to do an outrageous act, e.g., walk around campus wearing a sandwich board that says "Repent!"? Question 2: What percentage of undergrads would agree to do the act? Predicted % Subject’s Choice n (%) Wear Sign Not Wear Sign Willing to Wear Sign 27 (51%) 58.3% 41.7% Not Willing to Wear Sign 26 (49%) 29.7% 70.3% What Psych Mechanisms Cause the Anchoring/Adjustment Bias? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Why Are Estimates Biased Towards the Anchor
Why Are Estimates Biased Towards the Anchor? Why are Adjustments Typically Too Small? Adjustments stop when you reach the range of values which seem to be possible answers. E.g., I think that the rainfall in Miami must be between inches per year. If the anchor = 2 inches, I adjust until my estimate is over If the anchor is 600 inches, I adjust until my estimate is under 80. Cognitive Laziness: I am too quick to terminate the process of finding the "best" estimate. Priming: The anchor primes similar thoughts which influence the production of the estimate. This idea fits best with findings like the false consensus effect. Typical Research Strategy in Heuristics & Biases Research Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Research Strategy in Heuristics & Biases Research
Perform experiments that demonstrate reasoning errors. Use the pattern of errors to diagnose the heuristics that people are using. Example: Experiment shows that people are influenced by an initial anchoring estimate that is too high or too low. Use the demonstration of the influence of the anchor as evidence that people use an anchoring and adjustment strategy. Overview of the Availability Heuristic Topic Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Overview of Availability Heuristic
Definition of the availability heuristic Standard memory model Different aspects of human memory process cause different types of availability biases. Experiments reveal different aspects of the availability heuristic. What Is the Availability Heuristic? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

What is the Availability Heuristic?
Availability heuristic – events are judged more probable if ... examples of similar events are easy to recall or examples of similar events are easy to construct mentally (in imagination). Same Slide with More Examples of Availability Heuristic Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

What is the Availability Heuristic?
Availability heuristic – events are judged more probable if examples of similar events are easy to recall or easy to construct mentally (imagine). Example: How likely is it that the UW will be closed due to snow this winter? Example: How likely is it that there will be a large riot at a Donald Trump rally during the next 6 months? Why Is the Availability Heuristic a Reasonable Judgment Procedure? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Why Is the Availability Heuristic a Reasonable Procedure?
In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to occur frequently. Possibilities that are easy to imagine seem more likely. Learning Judgment of Likelihood Frequency of Experience Judged Frequency of Experience Availability of Memory Availability of Memory Other Factors Same Slide - Emphasis on Learning Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to occur frequently. Possibilities that are easy to imagine seem more likely. Learning Judgment of Likelihood Frequency of Experience Judged Frequency of Experience Availability of Memory Availability of Memory Other Factors Same Slide - Emphasis on Judgment of Likelihood Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to occur frequently. Possibilities that are easy to imagine seem more likely. Learning Judgment of Likelihood Frequency of Experience Judged Frequency of Experience Availability of Memory Availability of Memory Other Factors Same Slide - No Emphasis Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to occur frequently. Possibilities that are easy to imagine seem more likely. Learning Judgment of Likelihood Frequency of Experience Judged Frequency of Experience Availability of Memory Availability of Memory Other Factors Examples of Availability Heurstic from Plous Textbook Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Examples from Plous (The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making)
Which is a more likely cause of death in the United States: Being killed by falling airplane parts or being killed by a shark? In the United States, the chance of dying from falling airplane parts is 30 times greater than dying from a shark attack. Because shark attacks receive more publicity, information about shark attacks is more readily available. Which claims more lives in the United States: Lightning or tornadoes? More Americans are killed annually by lightning than by tornadoes. Because tornadoes receive more publicity than occasional lightning strikes, the most common answer is tornadoes. Diagram Showing the Standard Memory Model - Why Memory Processes Produce Availability Effects Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Standard Memory Model Influence of Availability
External Stimulus Sensory Registers Visual Auditory Haptic Gustatory Olfactory Working Memory Control Processes Rehearsal Coding Symbol and Image Manipulation Information Processing Strategies Long-Term Memory Memory Traces Episodic Semantic Perceptual Procedural Cognitive Toolbox Judgment Strategies Decision Strategies Heuristics encoding retrieval control processes Influence of Availability Availability biases are the consequence of non-frequency factors that influence memory encoding, retrieval, and mental construction. Briefly Show Next Slide – The Baddeley/Hitch Diagram of the Memory Systems Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

H&D Fig. 1.1 Sensory Input Buffers Working Memory Central Executive Phonological Buffer Goal Stack Visuospatial Buffer Long-Term Memory An alternative diagram for the standard memory model. The preceding slide and the current slide are two different versions of the same idea. The preceding slide emphasizes the role of encoding and retrieval processes. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Return to Previous Standard Memory Model with Color Emphasis

Standard Memory Model Influence of Availability
External Stimulus Sensory Registers Visual Auditory Haptic Gustatory Olfactory Working Memory Control Processes Rehearsal Coding Symbol and Image Manipulation Information Processing Strategies Long-Term Memory Memory Traces Episodic Semantic Perceptual Procedural Cognitive Toolbox Judgment Strategies Decision Strategies Heuristics encoding retrieval control processes Influence of Availability Availability biases are the consequence of non-frequency factors that influence memory encoding, retrieval, and mental construction. Return to Earlier Slide: Other Factors Influence Availability Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to occur frequently. Possibilities that are easy to imagine seem more likely. Learning Judgment of Likelihood Frequency of Experience Judged Frequency of Experience Availability of Memory Availability of Memory Other Factors Standard Memory Model (Diagram) Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Different Types of Availability Bias
Biased exposure to events. Sampling bias Encoding and retrieval biases: Solo status and egocentric bias. Biases due to differential ease of retrieval or mental constructions Examples of Availability Bias Due to Biased Exposure Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Is Availability Bias Due to Sampling Bias or Biased Exposure?
In 2002, which is more likely, death in a motor vehicle accident or death from influenza or pneumonia? 2002 motor vehicle deaths = per 100,000; Influenza/pneumonia deaths = per 100,000 TV coverage obviously emphasizes dramatic events and under-represents undramatic events. Clinical belief that child sexual molestors do not stop on their own. People who are caught are much more likely to be serial child molestors than a one-time child molestor. Hamill, Nisbett & Wilson Study – Insensitivity to Sampling Bias Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Insensitivity to Sampling Bias: Experiment
Hamil, Wilson, & Nisbett (1980). Subjects watch a video of an interview with a (fake) prison guard. Humane tape: The prison guard is remarkably humane and compassionate. Inhumane tape: The prison guard is brutal and cruel. Condition 1: Subjects were given NO INFORMATION about the typicality of the guard. Condition 2: Subjects were told that the guard was TYPICAL of guards at that prison. Condition 3: Subjects were told that the guard was very ATYPICAL. Experimental Design of Hamil, Wilson & Nisbett Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Insensitivity to Sampling Bias: Experimental Design
The graphic for the table is stored in ‘e:\p466\resources\hamill.wilson.nisbet.diagram.docm’. After viewing the video, subjects are asked: In general, what do you think prison guards are like? Results for Hamil, Wilson & Nisbett Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Insensitivity to Sampling Bias: Results
predict humane predict inhumane The graphic for the table is stored in ‘e:\p466\resources\hamill.wilson.nisbet.diagram.docm’. Results showed little effect of the information about typicality. Subjects predicted that most guards were consistent with the video tape (either humane or inhumane) without regard for his typicality. Can We Resist Influence of Sampling Bias? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Remarks on Insensitivity to Sampling Bias or Exposure Bias
Things we all know: TV ads do not give an accurate picture of the value of products. Political spin doctors are trying to manipulate our beliefs. TV news is not a representative sampling of events. The portrayal of men/women, black/whites, rich/poor, gay/straight, on TV is not a representative presentation of these groups. Our own experiences are not typical of everybody’s experience. Etc. We know that these information sources are biased, but can we correct for these biases or take them into account when forming beliefs? Doubtful. Availability promotes influence of biased information. Anchoring and adjustment promotes influence of biased information. Continuation of the Remarks on this Slide Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Insensitivity to Sampling Bias - Is it a Cognitive Bias?
Insensitivity to sampling bias (exposure bias) is not strictly a cognitive bias. The world feeds us biased information, .... .... but we have difficulty taking this into account. Note that these results can result from a combination of availability bias and anchoring and adjustment bias. Return to List of Different Types of Availability Bias Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Different Types of Availability Biases
Biased exposure to events Sampling bias Encoding and retrieval biases: Egocentric bias & solo status. Dramatic versus undramatic events Biases due to differential ease of mental constructions Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Encoding & Retrieval Biases – Famous Names x Men/Women

Availability Bias Due to Ease of Encoding or Retrieval
Condition I: Famous Male Non-Famous Female Bill Clinton Tom Hanks Michael Jordan Mary Brooks Andrea Forbus Leanne Faris Condition II: Famous Female Non-Famous Male William Towers Murray Jencks Lionel Worley Hilary Clinton Marilyn Monroe Sarah Palin Condition I: Subjects saw a list of names, one at a time, that mixed 18 famous males with 19 non-famous females. Question: Did you see more men or more women? Same Slide with Emphasis on Condition II Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Condition I: Famous Male Non-Famous Female Bill Clinton Tom Hanks Michael Jordan Mary Brooks Andrea Forbus Leanne Faris Condition II: Famous Female Non-Famous Male William Towers Murray Jencks Lionel Worley Hilary Clinton Marilyn Monroe Sarah Palin Condition II: Subjects saw a list of names, one at a time, that mixed 19 non-famous males with 18 famous females. Question: Did you see more men or more women? Results – Why Does This Effect Occur? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Condition I: Famous Male Non-Famous Female Bill Clinton Tom Hanks Michael Jordan Mary Brooks Andrea Forbus Leanne Faris Condition II: Famous Female Non-Famous Male William Towers Murray Jencks Lionel Worley Hilary Clinton Marilyn Monroe Sarah Palin Subjects reported that there were more males if the males were famous, and more females if the females were famous. Why does this happen? Standard Memory Model – Why Does this Result Occur? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Standard Memory Model control processes Long-Term Memory Memory Traces Episodic Semantic Perceptual Procedural Cognitive Toolbox Judgment Strategies Decision Strategies Heuristics Working Memory Control Processes Rehearsal Coding Symbol and Image Manipulation Information Processing Strategies Sensory Registers Visual Auditory Haptic Gustatory Olfactory encoding External Stimulus retrieval In terms of the standard memory model, why do subjects think they have seen more names of the sex that is famous? Is this relevant to our perceptions of everyday life? Egocentric Bias Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Egocentric Bias Egocentric bias: People overrate the proportion of the total work to a project that they have contributed. Ross & Sicoly (1979): Subjects were 37 married couples. Working separately, husband and wife rated self and spouse for their work on 20 activities: Good Actions: Making breakfast; cleaning dishes; cleaning house; making important decisions; ... Bad Actions: Causing arguments between themselves; making the house messy; irritating spouse; .... primarily primarily husband wife How to Detect Non-Egocentric Bias in the Ratings Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

How to Measure Egocentric Bias
primarily primarily husband wife Subjects rated their responsibility on a line as shown above. Husband's rating measured as distance from the right end; wife's ratings measures as distance from the left end. If husband and wife have accurate perceptions of responsibility, the sum of their ratings should equal the length of the line. Example: Husband & Wife Are Consistent with Each Other Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Example: Husband & Wife Are Consistent With Each Other
How often do you wash the dishes? primarily primarily husband wife If husband and wife were not egocentric, the couple's ratings would sum to +100 as shown here. ▉ + 25 in husband's scoring ▉ + 75 in wife's scoring +100 total of husband & wife Example: Husband and Wife are Inconsistent with Each Other Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Example: Husband & Wife Are Inconsistent With Each Other
Husband and wife disagree about their contributions to washing the dishes. primarily primarily husband wife If husband and wife are egocentric, the couple's ratings would sum to more than 100 as shown here. ▉ + 48 in husband's scoring ▉ + 75 in wife's scoring +123 total of husband & wife Results of This Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Results for Egocentric Bias Study
The inconsistent (egocentric) pattern is typical: primarily primarily husband wife Ratings consistently summed to number greater than +100 across a variety of activities. The result holds for both good things (wash the dishes) and bad things (buy unnecessary things). General Finding: Excessive attribution to self Why does this occur? (See next slide) Husband’s Rating + Wife’s Rating > 100 Other Examples: Self versus supervisor focus in attributing responsibility for BA thesis work. Basketball players attributing responsibility for win or loss. Mention that the experimenters first used a probability rating response, i.e., subjects gave numerical estimates of the percentage of time they did different activities. The trouble with this is that the subjects would talk about their responses at the end of the experiment and get into arguments over who was right. Having the subjects make their responses on a rating line made it harder for them to compare their responses, hence, preventing arguments among the subjects. Return to Diagram for Standard Memory Model + Conclusions Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Conclusion re Egocentric Bias
Egocentric bias is probably related to the greater availability of self-actions than other-actions (actions by someone else). Encoding bias? Retrieval bias? Both? External Stimulus Sensory Registers Visual Auditory Haptic Gustatory Olfactory Working Memory Control Processes Rehearsal Coding Symbol and Image Manipulation Information Processing Strategies Long-Term Memory Memory Traces Episodic Semantic Perceptual Procedural Cognitive Toolbox Judgment Strategies Decision Strategies Heuristics encoding retrieval control processes Solo Status Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Tuesday, 10 October, 2017: The Lecture Ended Here
Psych 466,, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Solo Status A person has solo status in a group if he or she is the unique person with some salient characteristic in the group. Only woman in a group of men; only man in a group of women. Only black in a group of whites; only white in a group of blacks. Only person wearing a bright red shirt. Experimental Studies of Solo Status Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017:

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017:"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017:

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Heuristics & Biases: The Anchoring & Adjustment & Availability Heuristics Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/10/2017:"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback