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Marketing Director APK-Inform MG, ISOA Secretary General
EXPORT POTENTIAL OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SUNFLOWER INDUSTRY Svitlana Synkovska, Marketing Director APK-Inform MG, ISOA Secretary General
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What is Important? Sunflower oil – bright path from local to global product Ukraine : welcome to SunflowerLand! Russia: unexpected growth of sunflower industry Some words about “rising star” - sunflower meal
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Sunflower oil – bright path from local to global product
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GLOBAL SUNFLOWER AREAS DYNAMICS
+124%
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SUNFLOWER OIL PRODUCTION and import –growth trend
Up 4 times Up 9 times
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Other oils DYNAMICS Up 7,6 times Up 6 times Up 14,8 times
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Current picture of global sunflower oil market 2017/18
TOP-5 exporters – 95% TOP-10 importers – 82%
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Main players change for 10 years: sunflower oil production
10-year production growth +80%
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Main players change for 10 years: sunflower oil imports
Import increased in 3 times for 10 years! Impressive change of geograghy New markets boom demand!
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Main sunflower oil EXPORTERS – EXPORT TRENDS
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Main sunflower oil buyers – why they prefer sunflower oil?
#1 #2 #3
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Ukraine : welcome to SunflowerLand
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Ukraine: sunflower boom
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TOP exporters and TOP destinations of Ukrainian sunflower oil in 2017/18
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Sunflower oil exports: Crude, refined and bottled – 2017/18
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UKRAINE: trends&forecasts for 2018/19
Million tons 2017/18 2018/19 Change, % Sunflower Harvest 13.4 14.8 10% Sunflower Crush 13.2 14.6 Opening stocks 0.13 0.05 -60% Sunflower oil production 5.7 6.4 12% Total Supply 5.8 6.5 11% Domestic Consumption 0.45 = Exports 5.33 5.9 Total Distribution 6.3 Ending Stocks 0.1 100%
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Russia: unexpected growth of sunflower industry
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Russia: sunflower vs grains
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Russia: sunflower regions
Planted acreage, thsd ha 0,1 - 20 20, 107, 345, 582,
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TOP exporters and TOP destinations of Russian sunflower oil in 2017/18*
*Excluding trade within Customs Union
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Sunflower oil exports: Crude, refined and bottled – 2017/18
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Russia:trends&forecasts for 2018/19
Million tons 2017/18 2018/19 Change, % Sunflower Harvest 10.9 = Sunflower Crush 10.6 Opening stocks 0.44 0.41 -7% Sunflower oil production 4.5 Total Supply 5.0 Domestic Consumption 2.35 2.39 2% Exports* 2.2 2.13 -3.2% Total Distribution 4.55 4.52 -1% Ending Stocks 0.43 -4% *Including trade within Customs Union
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sunflower oil production & exports forecast 2018/19
Million tons 2018/19 2017/18 Change, % Ukraine SFO production 6.4 5.7 +12% SFO exports 5.9 5.3 +11% Russia 4.5 = 2.13 2.2 -3.2% UA + RU 10.9 10.2 +7% 8.0 7.5
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Some words about “rising star” - sunflower meal
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World import of sunflower meal
About million tons per season 2016/17 2017/18
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World export of sunflower meal and the leader
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sunflower meal production & exports forecast 2018/19
Million tons 2018/19 2017/18 Change, % Ukraine SFM production 5.7 5.2 +9% SFM exports 4.73 4.2 +12% Russia 4.43 4.40 = 1.15 1.25 -8% UA + RU 10.1 9.6 +5% 5.88 5.45 +8%
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PRICE FORECASTING – why its not easy?
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Thank you for attention and using suflower oil !
Svitlana Synkovska
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